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Statistical evaluation of alternative models of human evolution.

ABSTRACT: An appropriate model of recent human evolution is not only important to understand our own history, but it is necessary to disentangle the effects of demography and selection on genome diversity. Although most genetic data support the view that our species originated recently in Africa, it is still unclear if it completely replaced former members of the Homo genus, or if some interbreeding occurred during its range expansion. Several scenarios of modern human evolution have been proposed on the basis of molecular and paleontological data, but their likelihood has never been statistically assessed. Using DNA data from 50 nuclear loci sequenced in African, Asian and Native American samples, we show here by extensive simulations that a simple African replacement model with exponential growth has a higher probability (78%) as compared with alternative multiregional evolution or assimilation scenarios. A Bayesian analysis of the data under this best supported model points to an origin of our species approximately 141 thousand years ago (Kya), an exit out-of-Africa approximately 51 Kya, and a recent colonization of the Americas approximately 10.5 Kya. We also find that the African replacement model explains not only the shallow ancestry of mtDNA or Y-chromosomes but also the occurrence of deep lineages at some autosomal loci, which has been formerly interpreted as a sign of interbreeding with Homo erectus.

SUBMITTER: Fagundes NJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2077041 | biostudies-literature | 2007 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Statistical evaluation of alternative models of human evolution.

Fagundes Nelson J R NJ Ray Nicolas N Beaumont Mark M Neuenschwander Samuel S Salzano Francisco M FM Bonatto Sandro L SL Excoffier Laurent L

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20071031 45

An appropriate model of recent human evolution is not only important to understand our own history, but it is necessary to disentangle the effects of demography and selection on genome diversity. Although most genetic data support the view that our species originated recently in Africa, it is still unclear if it completely replaced former members of the Homo genus, or if some interbreeding occurred during its range expansion. Several scenarios of modern human evolution have been proposed on the ...[more]

PMID: 17978179

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Project description:The use of multiple pesticides or drugs can lead to a simultaneous selection pressure for resistance alleles at different loci. Models of resistance evolution focus on how this can delay the spread of resistance through a population, but often neglect how this can also reduce the probability that a resistance allele spreads. This neglected factor has been studied in a parallel literature as selective interference. Models of interference use alternative constructions of fitness, where selection coefficients from different loci either add or multiply. Although these are equivalent under weak selection, the two constructions make alternative predictions under the strong selection that characterizes resistance evolution. Here, simulations are used to examine the effects of interference on the probability of fixation and time to fixation of a new and strongly beneficial mutation in the presence of another strongly beneficial allele with variable starting frequency. The results from simulations show a complicated pattern of effects. The key result is that, under multiplicativity, the presence of the strongly beneficial allele leads to a small reduction in the probability of fixation for the new beneficial mutation up to ~10%, and a negligible increase in the average time to fixation up to ~2%, whereas under additivity, the effect is more substantial at up to ~50% for the probability of fixation and ~100% for the average time to fixation. Consequently, the effect of interference is only an important feature of resistance evolution under additivity. Current evidence from studies of experimental evolution provides widespread support for the basic features of additivity, which suggests that interference may afford resistance a different pattern of evolution than other adaptations: rather than the gradual and simultaneous selection of many alleles with small effects, the rapid evolution of resistance may involve the sequential selection of alleles with large effects.

Dataset Information

Statistical evaluation of alternative models of human evolution.

Publications

Statistical evaluation of alternative models of human evolution.

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