Dataset Information

Empirical Evaluation of Alternative Time-Series Models for COVID-19 Forecasting in Saudi Arabia.

ABSTRACT: COVID-19 is a disease-causing coronavirus strain that emerged in December 2019 that led to an ongoing global pandemic. The ability to anticipate the pandemic's path is critical. This is important in order to determine how to combat and track its spread. COVID-19 data is an example of time-series data where several methods can be applied for forecasting. Although various time-series forecasting models are available, it is difficult to draw broad theoretical conclusions regarding their relative merits. This paper presents an empirical evaluation of several time-series models for forecasting COVID-19 cases, recoveries, and deaths in Saudi Arabia. In particular, seven forecasting models were trained using autoregressive integrated moving average, TBATS, exponential smoothing, cubic spline, simple exponential smoothing Holt, and HoltWinters. The models were built using publicly available daily data of COVID-19 during the period of 24 March 2020 to 5 April 2021 reported in Saudi Arabia. The experimental results indicate that the ARIMA model had a smaller prediction error in forecasting confirmed cases, which is consistent with results reported in the literature, while cubic spline showed better predictions for recoveries and deaths. As more data become available, a fluctuation in the forecasting-accuracy metrics was observed, possibly due to abrupt changes in the data.

SUBMITTER: Al-Turaiki I

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8393561 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:In this paper, we introduce a novel model selection approach to time series forecasting. For linear stationary processes, such as AR processes, the direction of time is independent of the model parameters. By combining theoretical principles of time-reversibility in time series with conventional modeling approaches such as information criteria, we construct a criterion that employs the backwards prediction (backcast) as a proxy for the forecast. Hereby, we aim to adopt a theoretically grounded, data-driven approach to model selection. The novel criterion is named the backwards validated information criterion (BVIC). The BVIC identifies suitable models by trading off a measure of goodness-of-fit and a models ability to predict backwards. We test the performance of the BVIC by conducting experiments on synthetic and real data. In each experiment, the BVIC is examined in contrast to conventionally employed criteria. Our experimental results suggest that the BVIC has comparable performance as conventional information criteria. Specifically, in most of the experiments performed, we did not find statistically significant differences between the forecast error of the BVIC under certain parameterizations and that of the different information criteria. Nonetheless, it is worth emphasizing that the BVIC guarantees are established by design where the model order penalization term depends on strong mathematical properties of time-reversible time series forecasting properties and a finite data assessment. In particular, the penalization term is replaced by a weighted trade-off between functional dimensions pertaining to forecasting.That said, we observed that the BVIC recovered more accurately the real order of the underlying process than the other criteria, which rely on a static penalization of the model order. Lastly, leveraging the latter property we perform the assessment of the order model (or, memory) of time series pertaining to epileptic seizures recorded using electrocorticographic data. Our results provide converging evidence that the order of the model increases during the epileptic events.

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Empirical Evaluation of Alternative Time-Series Models for COVID-19 Forecasting in Saudi Arabia.

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