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Modelling the impact of population-based cytologic screening on cervical cancer incidence and mortality in Hong Kong: an age--period--cohort approach.

ABSTRACT: Cervical cancer incidence and mortality statistics in Hong Kong during 1972-2001 were examined to estimate the potential number of cancer cases that can be averted and years of life saved after the launch of an organised, population-based cytologic screening recall programme in 2004 with projections to 2016. Incidence rates under the status quo of opportunistic screening were projected by an age-period-cohort model, using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. Modelled rates were translated into numbers of cancer cases and deaths using mid-year population figures and age-period-specific mortality to incidence ratios. We applied International Agency for Research on Cancer risk reduction estimates for different screening strategies to these base case figures to estimate the number of incident cancers potentially averted and years of life saved attributable to organised screening incremental to the current status quo. The estimated numbers of cases projected to be preventable by the maximum likelihood (Bayesian) approach from 2002 to 2016 were 4226 (4176), 3778 (3728) and 2334 (2287) with organised screening every 1, 3 and 5 years, compared to haphazard screening currently. Correspondingly, 33,000 (32,800), 29,500 (29,300) and 18,200 (17,900) years of life could potentially be saved.

SUBMITTER: Woo PP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2361667 | biostudies-literature | 2005 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modelling the impact of population-based cytologic screening on cervical cancer incidence and mortality in Hong Kong: an age--period--cohort approach.

Woo P P S PP Thach T Q TQ Choy S T B ST McGhee S M SM Leung G M GM

British journal of cancer 20051001 9

Cervical cancer incidence and mortality statistics in Hong Kong during 1972-2001 were examined to estimate the potential number of cancer cases that can be averted and years of life saved after the launch of an organised, population-based cytologic screening recall programme in 2004 with projections to 2016. Incidence rates under the status quo of opportunistic screening were projected by an age-period-cohort model, using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. Modelled rates were translated in ...[more]

PMID: 16205695

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Project description:Importance:Allergy to ?-lactam antibiotics is one of the most frequently reported drug reactions, but epidemiological data in Chinese populations are lacking. Ethnic- and region-specific sensitization patterns of skin testing for ?-lactam antibiotic allergy are also unknown. Objective:To identify the prevalence, 1-year incidence, and sensitization patterns of ?-lactam antibiotic allergy in patients in Hong Kong. Design, Setting, and Participants:This cross-sectional study obtained territorywide, anonymized electronic patient data from the Clinical Management Systems of the Hospital Authority, the sole publicly funded health care system in Hong Kong with facilities in 7 regions (Hong Kong East, Hong Kong West, Kowloon Central, Kowloon East, Kowloon West, New Territories East, and New Territories West). All referrals to Queen Mary Hospital for ?-lactam antibiotic allergy testing from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2019, were also analyzed for sensitization patterns. Main Outcomes and Measures:Prevalence and cumulative incidence of ?-lactam antibiotic allergy reported in Hong Kong, and sensitization patterns according to ?-lactam antibiotic allergy skin testing. Results:Complete records of 7?184?271 unique patients were analyzed, with a men to women ratio of 1:1.2 and with a median age of 44 years. The prevalence of physician-reported ?-lactam antibiotic allergy was 2.0%, and the cumulative incidence was 107 per 100?000 population. Of the 34?402 new drug allergies reported in 2018, 8032 (23.3%) were ?-lactam antibiotic allergies. Three hundred fifty-five patients with reactions suggestive of ?-lactam antibiotic allergy underwent skin testing, and only 49 (13.8%; 95% CI, 10.64%-17.90%) of them had positive test results. Of these 49 patients, 14 (28.6%; 95% CI, 18.35%-44.49%) had selective reaction and 35 (71.4%; 95% CI, 59.84%-85.27%) had nonselective reaction. The sensitization rate to either benzylpenicilloyl polylysine or a minor determinant (benzylpenicilloate) was 47.0% (n?=?23; 95% CI, 34.85%-63.21%), with 10 patients monosensitized to benzylpenicilloyl polylysine only (20.4%; 95% CI, 11.74%-35.48%) and 5 to benzylpenicilloate only (10.2%; 95% CI, 4.45%-23.42%). Conclusions and Relevance:Results of this study suggest that patients in Hong Kong with ?-lactam antibiotic allergy had much higher rates of monosensitization to benzylpenicilloyl polylysine and benzylpenicilloate, making these reagents essential in ?-lactam antibiotic skin tests. Such a finding warrants future studies into whether this sensitization is specific to ethnicity or region.

Dataset Information

Modelling the impact of population-based cytologic screening on cervical cancer incidence and mortality in Hong Kong: an age--period--cohort approach.

Publications

Modelling the impact of population-based cytologic screening on cervical cancer incidence and mortality in Hong Kong: an age--period--cohort approach.

Similar Datasets

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