Dataset Information

The effects of seasonal climate variability on dengue annual incidence in Hong Kong: A modelling study.

ABSTRACT: In recent years, dengue has been rapidly spreading and growing in the tropics and subtropics. Located in southern China, Hong Kong's subtropical monsoon climate may favour dengue vector populations and increase the chance of disease transmissions during the rainy summer season. An increase in local dengue incidence has been observed in Hong Kong ever since the first case in 2002, with an outbreak reaching historically high case numbers in 2018. However, the effects of seasonal climate variability on recent outbreaks are unknown. As the local cases were found to be spatially clustered, we developed a Poisson generalized linear mixed model using pre-summer monthly total rainfall and mean temperature to predict annual dengue incidence (the majority of local cases occur during or after the summer months), over the period 2002-2018 in three pre-defined areas of Hong Kong. Using leave-one-out cross-validation, 5 out of 6 observations of area-specific outbreaks during the major outbreak years 2002 and 2018 were able to be predicted. 42 out of a total of 51 observations (82.4%) were within the 95% confidence interval of the annual incidence predicted by our model. Our study found that the rainfall before and during the East Asian monsoon (pre-summer) rainy season is negatively correlated with the annual incidence in Hong Kong while the temperature is positively correlated. Hence, as mosquito control measures in Hong Kong are intensified mainly when heavy rainfalls occur during or close to summer, our study suggests that a lower-than-average intensity of pre-summer rainfall should also be taken into account as an indicator of increased dengue risk.

SUBMITTER: Yuan HY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7062697 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The effects of seasonal climate variability on dengue annual incidence in Hong Kong: A modelling study.

Yuan Hsiang-Yu HY Liang Jingbo J Lin Pei-Sheng PS Sucipto Kathleen K Tsegaye Mesfin Mengesha MM Wen Tzai-Hung TH Pfeiffer Susanne S Pfeiffer Dirk D

Scientific reports 20200309 1

In recent years, dengue has been rapidly spreading and growing in the tropics and subtropics. Located in southern China, Hong Kong's subtropical monsoon climate may favour dengue vector populations and increase the chance of disease transmissions during the rainy summer season. An increase in local dengue incidence has been observed in Hong Kong ever since the first case in 2002, with an outbreak reaching historically high case numbers in 2018. However, the effects of seasonal climate variabilit ...[more]

PMID: 32152334

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Project description:Importance:Allergy to ?-lactam antibiotics is one of the most frequently reported drug reactions, but epidemiological data in Chinese populations are lacking. Ethnic- and region-specific sensitization patterns of skin testing for ?-lactam antibiotic allergy are also unknown. Objective:To identify the prevalence, 1-year incidence, and sensitization patterns of ?-lactam antibiotic allergy in patients in Hong Kong. Design, Setting, and Participants:This cross-sectional study obtained territorywide, anonymized electronic patient data from the Clinical Management Systems of the Hospital Authority, the sole publicly funded health care system in Hong Kong with facilities in 7 regions (Hong Kong East, Hong Kong West, Kowloon Central, Kowloon East, Kowloon West, New Territories East, and New Territories West). All referrals to Queen Mary Hospital for ?-lactam antibiotic allergy testing from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2019, were also analyzed for sensitization patterns. Main Outcomes and Measures:Prevalence and cumulative incidence of ?-lactam antibiotic allergy reported in Hong Kong, and sensitization patterns according to ?-lactam antibiotic allergy skin testing. Results:Complete records of 7?184?271 unique patients were analyzed, with a men to women ratio of 1:1.2 and with a median age of 44 years. The prevalence of physician-reported ?-lactam antibiotic allergy was 2.0%, and the cumulative incidence was 107 per 100?000 population. Of the 34?402 new drug allergies reported in 2018, 8032 (23.3%) were ?-lactam antibiotic allergies. Three hundred fifty-five patients with reactions suggestive of ?-lactam antibiotic allergy underwent skin testing, and only 49 (13.8%; 95% CI, 10.64%-17.90%) of them had positive test results. Of these 49 patients, 14 (28.6%; 95% CI, 18.35%-44.49%) had selective reaction and 35 (71.4%; 95% CI, 59.84%-85.27%) had nonselective reaction. The sensitization rate to either benzylpenicilloyl polylysine or a minor determinant (benzylpenicilloate) was 47.0% (n?=?23; 95% CI, 34.85%-63.21%), with 10 patients monosensitized to benzylpenicilloyl polylysine only (20.4%; 95% CI, 11.74%-35.48%) and 5 to benzylpenicilloate only (10.2%; 95% CI, 4.45%-23.42%). Conclusions and Relevance:Results of this study suggest that patients in Hong Kong with ?-lactam antibiotic allergy had much higher rates of monosensitization to benzylpenicilloyl polylysine and benzylpenicilloate, making these reagents essential in ?-lactam antibiotic skin tests. Such a finding warrants future studies into whether this sensitization is specific to ethnicity or region.

Dataset Information

The effects of seasonal climate variability on dengue annual incidence in Hong Kong: A modelling study.

Publications

The effects of seasonal climate variability on dengue annual incidence in Hong Kong: A modelling study.

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