Dataset Information

Estimates for local and movement-based transmission of bovine tuberculosis in British cattle.

ABSTRACT: Both badgers and livestock movements have been implicated in contributing to the ongoing epidemic of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in British cattle. However, the relative contributions of these and other causes are not well quantified. We used cattle movement data to construct an individual (premises)-based model of BTB spread within Great Britain, accounting for spread due to recorded cattle movements and other causes. Outbreak data for 2004 were best explained by a model attributing 16% of herd infections directly to cattle movements, and a further 9% unexplained, potentially including spread from unrecorded movements. The best-fit model assumed low levels of cattle-to-cattle transmission. The remaining 75% of infection was attributed to local effects within specific high-risk areas. Annual and biennial testing is mandatory for herds deemed at high risk of infection, as is pre-movement testing from such herds. The herds identified as high risk in 2004 by our model are in broad agreement with those officially designated as such at that time. However, border areas at the edges of high-risk regions are different, suggesting possible areas that should be targeted to prevent further geographical spread of disease. With these areas expanding rapidly over the last decade, their close surveillance is important to both identify infected herds qucikly, and limit their further growth.

SUBMITTER: Green DM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2366193 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) poses a challenge to animal health and welfare worldwide. Presence of genetic variation in host resistance to Mycobacterium bovis infection makes the trait amenable to improvement with genetic selection. Genetic evaluations for resistance to infection in dairy cattle are currently available in the United Kingdom (UK), enabling genetic selection of more resistant animals. However, the extent to which genetic selection could contribute to bTB eradication is unknown. The objective of this study was to quantify the impact of genetic selection for bTB resistance on cattle-to-cattle disease transmission dynamics and prevalence by developing a stochastic genetic epidemiological model. The model was used to implement genetic selection in a simulated cattle population. The model considered various levels of selection intensity over 20 generations assuming genetic heterogeneity in host resistance to infection. Our model attempted to represent the dairy cattle population structure and current bTB control strategies in the UK, and was informed by genetic and epidemiological parameters inferred from data collected from UK bTB infected dairy herds. The risk of a bTB breakdown was modeled as the percentage of herds where initially infected cows (index cases) generated secondary cases by infecting herd-mates. The model predicted that this risk would be reduced by half after 4, 6, 9, and 15 generations for selection intensities corresponding to genetic selection of the 10, 25, 50, and 70% most resistant sires, respectively. In herds undergoing bTB breakdowns, genetic selection reduced the severity of breakdowns over generations by reducing both the percentage of secondary cases and the duration over which new secondary cases were detected. Selection of the 10, 25, 50, and 70% most resistant sires reduced the percentage of secondary cases to <1% in 4, 5, 7, and 11 generations, respectively. Similarly, the proportion of long breakdowns (breakdowns in which secondary cases were detected for more than 365 days) was reduced by half in 2, 2, 3, and 4 generations, respectively. Collectively, results suggest that genetic selection could be a viable tool that can complement existing management and surveillance methods to control and ultimately eradicate bTB.

Project description:BackgroundDairy cattle movement could be a major risk factor for the spread of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in emerging dairy belts of Ethiopia. Dairy cattle may be moved between farms over long distances, and hence understanding the route and frequency of the movements is essential to establish the pattern of spread of BTB between farms, which could ultimately help to inform policy makers to design cost effective control strategies. The objective of this study was, therefore, to investigate the network structure of dairy cattle movement and its influence on the transmission and prevalence of BTB in three emerging areas among the Ethiopian dairy belts, namely the cities of Hawassa, Gondar and Mekelle.MethodsA questionnaire survey was conducted in 278 farms to collect data on the pattern of dairy cattle movement for the last 5 years (September 2013 to August 2018). Visualization of the network structure and analysis of the relationship between the network patterns and the prevalence of BTB in these regions were made using social network analysis.ResultsThe cattle movement network structure display both scale free and small world properties implying local clustering with fewer farms being highly connected, at higher risk of infection, with the potential to act as super spreaders of BTB if infected. Farms having a history of cattle movements onto the herds were more likely to be affected by BTB (OR: 2.2) compared to farms not having a link history. Euclidean distance between farms and the batch size of animals moved on were positively correlated with prevalence of BTB. On the other hand, farms having one or more outgoing cattle showed a decrease on the likelihood of BTB infection (OR = 0.57) compared to farms which maintained their cattle.ConclusionThis study showed that the patterns of cattle movement and size of animal moved between farms contributed to the potential for BTB transmission. The few farms with the bulk of transmission potential could be efficiently targeted by control measures aimed at reducing the spread of BTB. The network structure described can also provide the starting point to build and estimate dynamic transmission models for BTB, and other infectious diseases.

Dataset Information

Estimates for local and movement-based transmission of bovine tuberculosis in British cattle.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets