Dataset Information

Local cattle and badger populations affect the risk of confirmed tuberculosis in British cattle herds.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) remains a priority on the public health agenda in Great Britain, after launching in 1998 the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) to evaluate the effectiveness of badger (Meles meles) culling as a control strategy. Our study complements previous analyses of the RBCT data (focusing on treatment effects) by presenting analyses of herd-level risks factors associated with the probability of a confirmed bTB breakdown in herds within each treatment: repeated widespread proactive culling, localized reactive culling and no culling (survey-only).

Methodology/principal findings

New cases of bTB breakdowns were monitored inside the RBCT areas from the end of the first proactive badger cull to one year after the last proactive cull. The risk of a herd bTB breakdown was modeled using logistic regression and proportional hazard models adjusting for local farm-level risk factors. Inside survey-only and reactive areas, increased numbers of active badger setts and cattle herds within 1500 m of a farm were associated with an increased bTB risk. Inside proactive areas, the number of M. bovis positive badgers initially culled within 1500 m of a farm was the strongest predictor of the risk of a confirmed bTB breakdown.

Conclusions/significance

The use of herd-based models provide insights into how local cattle and badger populations affect the bTB breakdown risks of individual cattle herds in the absence of and in the presence of badger culling. These measures of local bTB risks could be integrated into a risk-based herd testing programme to improve the targeting of interventions aimed at reducing the risks of bTB transmission.

SUBMITTER: Vial F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3065452 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Local cattle and badger populations affect the risk of confirmed tuberculosis in British cattle herds.

Vial Flavie F Johnston W Thomas WT Donnelly Christl A CA

PloS one 20110328 3

<h4>Background</h4>The control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) remains a priority on the public health agenda in Great Britain, after launching in 1998 the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) to evaluate the effectiveness of badger (Meles meles) culling as a control strategy. Our study complements previous analyses of the RBCT data (focusing on treatment effects) by presenting analyses of herd-level risks factors associated with the probability of a confirmed bTB breakdown in herds within each t ...[more]

PMID: 21464920

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Project description:Bovine tuberculosis is endemic in cattle herds in Great Britain, with a substantial economic impact. A reservoir of Mycobacterium bovis within the Eurasian badger (Meles meles) population is thought to have hindered disease control. Cattle herd incidents, termed breakdowns, that are either 'prolonged' (lasting ? 240 days) or 'recurrent' (with another breakdown within a specified time period) may be important foci for onward spread of infection. They drain veterinary resources and can be demoralising for farmers. Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) data were re-analysed to examine the effects of two culling strategies on breakdown prolongation and recurrence, during and after culling, using a Bayesian hierarchical model. Separate effect estimates were obtained for the 'core' trial areas (where culling occurred) and the 'buffer' zones (up to 2 km outside of the core areas). For breakdowns that started during the culling period, 'reactive' (localised) culling was associated with marginally increased odds of prolongation, with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.7 (95% credible interval [CI] 1.1-2.4) within the core areas. This effect was not present after the culling ceased. There was no notable effect of 'proactive' culling on prolongation. In contrast, reactive culling had no effect on breakdown recurrence, though there was evidence of a reduced risk of recurrence in proactive core areas during the culling period (ORs and 95% CIs: 0.82 (0.64-1.0) and 0.69 (0.54-0.86) for 24- and 36-month recurrence respectively). Again these effects were not present after the culling ceased. There seemed to be no effect of culling on breakdown prolongation or recurrence in the buffer zones. These results suggest that the RBCT badger culling strategies are unlikely to reduce either the prolongation or recurrence of breakdowns in the long term, and that reactive strategies (such as employed during the RBCT) are, if anything, likely to impact detrimentally on breakdown persistence.

Project description:Government policy in England aims for the elimination of bovine tuberculosis (bTB). This policy includes culling of European badger (Meles meles) to reduce cattle TB incidence. The rationale is based on a field trial, the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) 1998-2005, which reported a substantial decrease in bTB herd incidence where badger culling had been implemented, in comparison to untreated control areas. The RBCT was undertaken because previous studies of reductions in badgers by culling, reported a possible association between bTB in badger and cattle, but none could directly show causation. The effect of intensive widespread (proactive) culling in the RBCT was reported in 2006 in the journal Nature. Analysis of an extensive badger removal programme in England since 2013 has raised concerns that culling has not reduced bTB herd incidence. The present study re-examined RBCT data using a range of statistical models. Most analytical options showed no evidence to support an effect of badger culling on bTB herd incidence 'confirmed' by visible lesions and/or bacterial culture post mortem following a comparative intradermal skin test (SICCT). However, the statistical model chosen by the RBCT study was one of the few models that showed an effect. Various criteria suggest that this was not an optimal model, compared to other analytical options available. The most likely explanation is that the RBCT proactive cull analysis over-fitted the data with a non-standard method to control for exposure giving it a poor predictive value. Fresh appraisal shows that there was insufficient evidence to conclude RBCT proactive badger culling affected bTB breakdown incidence. The RBCT found no evidence of an effect of culling on 'total' herd incidence rates. Total herd incidences include those confirmed as bTB at necropsy and those herds where there was at least one animal animal positive to the comparative intradermal skin test, the standard diagnostic test used for routine surveillance, but not confirmed at necropsy. This was also the case using the more suitable statistical models. Use only of 'confirmed' herd incidence data, together with a more recent (2013) published perception that RBCT data presented 'a strong evidence base….with appropriate detailed statistical or other quantitative analysis' should be reconsidered. The results of the present report are consistent with other analyses that were unable to detect any disease control benefits from badger culling in England (2013-2019). This study demonstrates one form of potential driver to the reproducibility crisis, in this case with disease control management in an increasingly intensified livestock industry.

Project description:BackgroundDespite rigorous controls placed on herds which disclose ante-mortem test positive cattle to bovine tuberculosis, caused by the infection of Mycobacterium bovis, many herds in Northern Ireland (NI) experience prolonged breakdowns. These herds represent a considerable administrative and financial burden to the State and farming community.MethodsA retrospective observational study was conducted to better understand the factors associated with breakdown duration, which was modelled using both negative binomial and ordinal regression approaches.ResultsSix explanatory variables were important predictors of breakdown length in both models; herd size, the number of reactors testing positive in the initial SICCT test, the presence of a lesioned animal at routine slaughter (LRS), the count of M. bovis genotypes during the breakdown (MLVA richness), the local herd-level bTB prevalence, and the presence of herds linked via management factors (associated herds). We report that between 2008 and 2014, mean breakdown duration in NI was 226 days (approx. seven months; median: 188 days). In the same period, however, more than 6% of herds in the region remained under movement restriction for more than 420 days (13 months); almost twice as long as the mean. The MLVA richness variable was a particularly important predictor of breakdown duration. We contend that this variable primarily represents a proxy for beef fattening herds, which can operate by purchasing cattle and selling animals straight to slaughter, despite prolonged trading restrictions. For other herd types, the model supports the hypothesis that prolonged breakdowns are a function of both residual infection within the herd, and infection from the environment (e.g. infected wildlife, contiguous herds and/or a contaminated environment). The impact of badger density on breakdown duration was assessed by including data on main sett (burrow) density. Whilst a positive association was observed in the univariate analysis, confounding with other variables means that the contribution of badgers to prolonged breakdowns was not clear from our study. We do not fully reject the hypothesis that badgers are implicated in prolonging bTB breakdowns via spillback infection, but given our results, we posit that increased disease risk from badgers is unlikely to simply be a function of increasing badger density measured using sett metrics.

Dataset Information

Local cattle and badger populations affect the risk of confirmed tuberculosis in British cattle herds.

Background

Methodology/principal findings

Conclusions/significance

Publications

Local cattle and badger populations affect the risk of confirmed tuberculosis in British cattle herds.

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