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Evaluating molecular clock calibrations using Bayesian analyses with soft and hard bounds.

ABSTRACT: A limiting factor in many molecular dating studies is shortage of reliable calibrations. Current methods for choosing calibrations (e.g. cross-validation) treat them as either correct or incorrect, whereas calibrations probably lie on a continuum from highly accurate to very poor. Bayesian relaxed clock analysis permits inclusion of numerous candidate calibrations as priors: provided most calibrations are reliable, the model appropriate and the data informative, the accuracy of each calibration prior can be evaluated. If a calibration is accurate, then the analysis will support the prior so that the posterior estimate reflects the prior; if a calibration is poor, the posterior will be forced away from the prior. We use this approach to test two fossil dates recently proposed as standard calibrations within vertebrates. The proposed bird-crocodile calibration (approx. 247Myr ago) appears to be accurate, but the proposed bird-lizard calibration (approx. 255Myr ago) is substantially too recent.

SUBMITTER: Sanders KL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2464697 | biostudies-literature | 2007 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evaluating molecular clock calibrations using Bayesian analyses with soft and hard bounds.

Sanders Kate L KL Lee Michael S Y MS

Biology letters 20070601 3

A limiting factor in many molecular dating studies is shortage of reliable calibrations. Current methods for choosing calibrations (e.g. cross-validation) treat them as either correct or incorrect, whereas calibrations probably lie on a continuum from highly accurate to very poor. Bayesian relaxed clock analysis permits inclusion of numerous candidate calibrations as priors: provided most calibrations are reliable, the model appropriate and the data informative, the accuracy of each calibration ...[more]

PMID: 17363358

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Project description:Molecular-based divergence dating methods, or molecular clocks, are the primary neontological tool for estimating the temporal origins of clades. While the appropriate use of vertebrate fossils as external clock calibrations has stimulated heated discussions in the paleontological community, less attention has been given to the quality and implementation of other calibration types. In lieu of appropriate fossils, many studies rely on alternative sources of age constraints based on geological events, substitution rates and heterochronous sampling, as well as dates secondarily derived from previous analyses. To illustrate the breadth and frequency of calibration types currently employed, we conducted a literature survey of over 600 articles published from 2007 to 2013. Over half of all analyses implemented one or more fossil dates as constraints, followed by geological events and secondary calibrations (15% each). Vertebrate taxa were subjects in nearly half of all studies, while invertebrates and plants together accounted for 43%, followed by viruses, protists and fungi (3% each). Current patterns in calibration practices were disproportionate to the number of discussions on their proper use, particularly regarding plants and secondarily derived dates, which are both relatively neglected in methodological evaluations. Based on our survey, we provide a comprehensive overview of the latest approaches in clock calibration, and outline strengths and weaknesses associated with each. This critique should serve as a call to action for researchers across multiple communities, particularly those working on clades for which fossil records are poor, to develop their own guidelines regarding selection and implementation of alternative calibration types. This issue is particularly relevant now, as time-calibrated phylogenies are used for more than dating evolutionary origins, but often serve as the backbone of investigations into biogeography, diversity dynamics and rates of phenotypic evolution.

Project description:BackgroundEctomycorrhizae (ECM) are symbioses formed by polyphyletic assemblages of fungi (mostly Agaricomycetes) and plants (mostly Pinaceae and angiosperms in the rosid clade). Efforts to reconstruct the evolution of the ECM habit in Agaricomycetes have yielded vastly different results, ranging from scenarios with many relatively recent origins of the symbiosis and no reversals to the free-living condition; a single ancient origin of ECM and many subsequent transitions to the free-living condition; or multiple gains and losses of the association. To test the plausibility of these scenarios, we performed Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analyses including fungi, plants, and other eukaryotes, based on the principle that a symbiosis cannot evolve prior to the origin of both partners. As we were primarily interested in the relative ages of the plants and fungi, we did not attempt to calibrate the molecular clock using the very limited fossil record of Agaricomycetes.ResultsTopologically constrained and unconstrained analyses suggest that the root node of the Agaricomycetes is much older than either the rosids or Pinaceae. The Agaricomycetidae, a large clade containing the Agaricales and Boletales (collectively representing 70% of Agaricomycetes), is also significantly older than the rosids. The relative age of Agaricomycetidae and Pinaceae, however, is sensitive to tree topology, and the inclusion or exclusion of the gnetophyte Welwitschia mirabilis.ConclusionThe ancestor of the Agaricomycetes could not have been an ECM species because it existed long before any of its potential hosts. Within more derived clades of Agaricomycetes, there have been at least eight independent origins of ECM associations involving angiosperms, and at least six to eight origins of associations with gymnosperms. The first ECM symbioses may have involved Pinaceae, which are older than rosids, but several major clades of Agaricomycetes, such as the Boletales and Russulales, are young enough to have been plesiomorphically associated with either rosids or Pinaceae, suggesting that some contemporary ECM partnerships could be of very ancient origin.

Dataset Information

Evaluating molecular clock calibrations using Bayesian analyses with soft and hard bounds.

Publications

Evaluating molecular clock calibrations using Bayesian analyses with soft and hard bounds.

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