Dataset Information

Geostatistical modeling of the spatial distribution of soil dioxin in the vicinity of an incinerator. 2. Verification and calibration study.

ABSTRACT: A key component in any investigation of cause-effect relationships between point source pollution, such as an incinerator, and human health is the availability of measurements and/or accurate models of exposure at the same scale or geography as the health data. Geostatistics allows one to simulate the spatial distribution of pollutant concentrations over various spatial supports while incorporating both field data and predictions of deterministic dispersion models. This methodology was used in a companion paper to identify the census blocks that have a high probability of exceeding a given level of dioxin TEQ (toxic equivalents) around an incinerator in Midland, MI. This geostatistical model, along with population data, provided guidance for the collection of 51 new soil data, which permits the verification of the geostatistical predictions, and calibration of the model. Each new soil measurement was compared to the set of 100 TEQ values simulated at the closest grid node. The correlation between the measured concentration and the averaged simulated value is moderate (0.44), and the actual concentrations are clearly overestimated in the vicinity of the plant property line. Nevertheless, probability intervals computed from simulated TEQ values provide an accurate model of uncertainty: the proportion of observations that fall within these intervals exceeds what is expected from the model. Simulation-based probability intervals are also narrower than the intervals derived from the global histogram of the data, which demonstrates the greater precision of the geostatistical approach. Log-normal ordinary kriging provided fairly similar estimation results for the small and well-sampled area used in this validation study; however, the model of uncertainty was not always accurate. The regression analysis and geostatistical simulation were then conducted using the combined set of 53 original and 51 new soil samples, leading to an updated model for the spatial distribution of TEQ in Midland, MI.

SUBMITTER: Goovaerts P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2572639 | biostudies-literature | 2008 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Geostatistical modeling of the spatial distribution of soil dioxin in the vicinity of an incinerator. 2. Verification and calibration study.

Goovaerts Pierre P Trinh Hoa T HT Demond Avery H AH Towey Timothy T Chang Shu-Chi SC Gwinn Danielle D Hong Biling B Franzblau Alfred A Garabrant David D Gillespie Brenda W BW Lepkowski James J Adriaens Peter P

Environmental science & technology 20080501 10

A key component in any investigation of cause-effect relationships between point source pollution, such as an incinerator, and human health is the availability of measurements and/or accurate models of exposure at the same scale or geography as the health data. Geostatistics allows one to simulate the spatial distribution of pollutant concentrations over various spatial supports while incorporating both field data and predictions of deterministic dispersion models. This methodology was used in a ...[more]

PMID: 18546704

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Project description:Deposition of pollutants around point sources of contamination, such as incinerators, can display complex spatial patterns depending on prevailing weather conditions, the local topography, and the characteristics of the source. Deterministic dispersion models often fail to capture the complexity observed in the field, resulting in uncertain predictions that might hamper subsequent decision-making, such as delineation of areas targeted for additional sampling or remediation. This paper describes a geostatistical simulation-based methodology that combines the detailed process-based modeling of atmospheric deposition from an incinerator with the probabilistic modeling of residual variability of field samples. The approach is used to delineate areas with high levels of dioxin TEQ(DF)-WHO98 (toxic equivalents) around an incinerator, accounting for 53 field data and the output of the EPA Industrial Source Complex (ISC3) dispersion model. The dispersion model explains 43.7% of the variance in the soil TEQ data, whereas the regression residuals are spatially correlated with a range of 776 m. One hundred realizations of soil TEQ values are simulated on a grid with a 50 m spacing. The benefit of stochastic simulation over spatial interpolation is 2-fold: (1) maps of simulated point TEQ values can easily be aggregated to the geography that is the most relevant for decision making (e.g., census block, ZIP codes); and (2) the uncertainty at the larger scale is simply modeled by the empirical distribution of block-averaged simulated values. Incorporating the output of the atmospheric deposition model as a spatial trend yields a more realistic prediction of the spatial distribution of TEQ values than log-normal kriging using only the field data, in particular, in sparsely sampled areas away from the incinerator. The geostatistical model provided guidance for the study design (census block-based population sampling) of the University of Michigan Dioxin Exposure Study (UMDES), focused on quantifying exposure pathways to dioxins from industrial sources, relative to background exposures.

Project description:The environmental quality of soil in the central part of the Northern Plateau of Spain has been analyzed by studying the heavy metal content of 166 samples belonging to the horizons A, B and C of 89 soil profiles. The analysis to assess the environmental risk of heavy metals in the soil was carried out by means of the spatial distribution of nine heavy metals and the use of several pollution indices. The results showed that the concentration values of heavy metals (x ± S) in the superficial soil horizons were the following: With a total of 6.71 ± 3.51 mg kg -1, the contents of Cd is 0.08 ± 0.06 mg kg-1, Co is 6.49 ± 3.21 mg kg-1, Cu is 17.19 ± 10.69 mg kg-1, Cr is 18.68 ± 12.28 mg kg-1, Hg is 0.083 ± 0.063 mg kg-1, Ni is 12.05 ± 6.76 mg kg-1, Pb is 14.10 ± 11.32 mg kg-1 and Zn is 35.31 ± 14.63 mg kg-1. These nine metals exceed the values of the natural geological background level of Tertiary period sediments and rocks that form part of the Northern Plateau in Spain. Nemerow and Potential Ecological Risk indices were calculated, with the "improved" Nemerow index allowing pollution within the soil superficial horizons to be determined. The data obtained indicated that the majority of the soil (54.61%) showed low to moderate contamination, 22.31% showed moderate contamination and 21.54% of the samples were not contaminated. If we consider the Potential of Ecological Risk Index (RI), the largest percentage of soil samples showed low (70.79%) to moderate (25.38%) ecological risk of potential contamination, where the rest of the soil presented a considerable risk of contamination. The nine trace elements were divided into three principal components: PC1 (Cu, Cr, Ni, Co and Zn), PC2 (As and Hg) and PC3 (Cd). All metals accumulated in the soil came from parent rock, agricultural practices and the run-off of residual waters towards rivers and streams caused by industrial development and an increase in population density. Finally, cartography of the spatial distribution of the heavy metal contents in the soil of the Northern Plateau of Spain was generated using Kriging interpolation methods. Furthermore, the total heavy metal contents in three soil orders present in the area, namely Entisols, Inceptisols, and Alfisols, were analyzed. Other soil parameters, such as the organic matter content, pH, clay content and cation exchange capacity, was measured to determine their influence on and correlation with the heavy metal contents.

Project description:BACKGROUND:In low-income countries it is difficult to obtain complete data that show spatial heterogeneity in the risk of tuberculosis within-and-between smaller administrative units. This may contribute to the partial effectiveness of tuberculosis control programs. The aim of this study was to estimate the spatial risk of tuberculosis distribution in Gurage Zone, Southern Ethiopia using limited spatial datasets. METHODS:A total of 1601 patient data that were retrieved from unit tuberculosis registers were included in the final analyses. The population and geo-location data were obtained from the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia. Altitude data were extracted from ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model Version 2. Aggregated datasets from sample of 169(40%), 254(60%) and 338(80%) kebeles were used to estimate the spatial risk of TB distribution in the Gurage Zone by using a geostatistical kriging approach. The best set of input parameters were decided based on the lowest prediction error criteria of the cross-validation technique. ArcGIS 10.2 was used for the spatial data analyses. RESULTS:The best semivariogram models were the Pentaspherical, Rational Quadratic, and K-Bessel for the 40, 60 and 80% spatial datasets, respectively. The predictive accuracies of the models have improved with the true anisotropy, altitude and latitude covariates, the change in detrending pattern from local to global, and the increase in size of spatial dataset. The risk of tuberculosis was estimated to be higher at western, northwest, southwest and southeast parts of the study area, and crossed between high and low at west-central parts. CONCLUSION:This study has underlined that the geostatistical kriging approach can be applied to estimate the spatial risk of tuberculosis distribution in data limited settings. The estimation results may help local public health authorities measure burden of the disease at all locations, identify geographical areas that require more attention, and evaluate the impacts of intervention programs.

Project description:BackgroundAnthrax is an important zoonotic disease in Kenya associated with high animal and public health burden and widespread socio-economic impacts. The disease occurs in sporadic outbreaks that involve livestock, wildlife, and humans, but knowledge on factors that affect the geographic distribution of these outbreaks is limited, challenging public health intervention planning.MethodsAnthrax surveillance data reported in southern Kenya from 2011 to 2017 were modeled using a boosted regression trees (BRT) framework. An ensemble of 100 BRT experiments was developed using a variable set of 18 environmental covariates and 69 unique anthrax locations. Model performance was evaluated using AUC (area under the curve) ROC (receiver operating characteristics) curves.ResultsCattle density, rainfall of wettest month, soil clay content, soil pH, soil organic carbon, length of longest dry season, vegetation index, temperature seasonality, in order, were identified as key variables for predicting environmental suitability for anthrax in the region. BRTs performed well with a mean AUC of 0.8. Areas highly suitable for anthrax were predicted predominantly in the southwestern region around the shared Kenya-Tanzania border and a belt through the regions and highlands in central Kenya. These suitable regions extend westwards to cover large areas in western highlands and the western regions around Lake Victoria and bordering Uganda. The entire eastern and lower-eastern regions towards the coastal region were predicted to have lower suitability for anthrax.ConclusionThese modeling efforts identified areas of anthrax suitability across southern Kenya, including high and medium agricultural potential regions and wildlife parks, important for tourism and foreign exchange. These predictions are useful for policy makers in designing targeted surveillance and/or control interventions in Kenya. We thank the staff of Directorate of Veterinary Services under the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, for collecting and providing the anthrax historical occurrence data.

Dataset Information

Geostatistical modeling of the spatial distribution of soil dioxin in the vicinity of an incinerator. 2. Verification and calibration study.

Publications

Geostatistical modeling of the spatial distribution of soil dioxin in the vicinity of an incinerator. 2. Verification and calibration study.

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