Dataset Information

Geostatistical modeling of the spatial distribution of soil dioxins in the vicinity of an incinerator. 1. Theory and application to Midland, Michigan.

ABSTRACT: Deposition of pollutants around point sources of contamination, such as incinerators, can display complex spatial patterns depending on prevailing weather conditions, the local topography, and the characteristics of the source. Deterministic dispersion models often fail to capture the complexity observed in the field, resulting in uncertain predictions that might hamper subsequent decision-making, such as delineation of areas targeted for additional sampling or remediation. This paper describes a geostatistical simulation-based methodology that combines the detailed process-based modeling of atmospheric deposition from an incinerator with the probabilistic modeling of residual variability of field samples. The approach is used to delineate areas with high levels of dioxin TEQ(DF)-WHO98 (toxic equivalents) around an incinerator, accounting for 53 field data and the output of the EPA Industrial Source Complex (ISC3) dispersion model. The dispersion model explains 43.7% of the variance in the soil TEQ data, whereas the regression residuals are spatially correlated with a range of 776 m. One hundred realizations of soil TEQ values are simulated on a grid with a 50 m spacing. The benefit of stochastic simulation over spatial interpolation is 2-fold: (1) maps of simulated point TEQ values can easily be aggregated to the geography that is the most relevant for decision making (e.g., census block, ZIP codes); and (2) the uncertainty at the larger scale is simply modeled by the empirical distribution of block-averaged simulated values. Incorporating the output of the atmospheric deposition model as a spatial trend yields a more realistic prediction of the spatial distribution of TEQ values than log-normal kriging using only the field data, in particular, in sparsely sampled areas away from the incinerator. The geostatistical model provided guidance for the study design (census block-based population sampling) of the University of Michigan Dioxin Exposure Study (UMDES), focused on quantifying exposure pathways to dioxins from industrial sources, relative to background exposures.

SUBMITTER: Goovaerts P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2577050 | biostudies-literature | 2008 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Geostatistical modeling of the spatial distribution of soil dioxins in the vicinity of an incinerator. 1. Theory and application to Midland, Michigan.

Goovaerts Pierre P Trinh Hoa T HT Demond Avery A Franzblau Alfred A Garabrant David D Gillespie Brenda B Lepkowski James J Adriaens Peter P

Environmental science & technology 20080501 10

Deposition of pollutants around point sources of contamination, such as incinerators, can display complex spatial patterns depending on prevailing weather conditions, the local topography, and the characteristics of the source. Deterministic dispersion models often fail to capture the complexity observed in the field, resulting in uncertain predictions that might hamper subsequent decision-making, such as delineation of areas targeted for additional sampling or remediation. This paper describes ...[more]

PMID: 18546703

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Project description:A key component in any investigation of cause-effect relationships between point source pollution, such as an incinerator, and human health is the availability of measurements and/or accurate models of exposure at the same scale or geography as the health data. Geostatistics allows one to simulate the spatial distribution of pollutant concentrations over various spatial supports while incorporating both field data and predictions of deterministic dispersion models. This methodology was used in a companion paper to identify the census blocks that have a high probability of exceeding a given level of dioxin TEQ (toxic equivalents) around an incinerator in Midland, MI. This geostatistical model, along with population data, provided guidance for the collection of 51 new soil data, which permits the verification of the geostatistical predictions, and calibration of the model. Each new soil measurement was compared to the set of 100 TEQ values simulated at the closest grid node. The correlation between the measured concentration and the averaged simulated value is moderate (0.44), and the actual concentrations are clearly overestimated in the vicinity of the plant property line. Nevertheless, probability intervals computed from simulated TEQ values provide an accurate model of uncertainty: the proportion of observations that fall within these intervals exceeds what is expected from the model. Simulation-based probability intervals are also narrower than the intervals derived from the global histogram of the data, which demonstrates the greater precision of the geostatistical approach. Log-normal ordinary kriging provided fairly similar estimation results for the small and well-sampled area used in this validation study; however, the model of uncertainty was not always accurate. The regression analysis and geostatistical simulation were then conducted using the combined set of 53 original and 51 new soil samples, leading to an updated model for the spatial distribution of TEQ in Midland, MI.

Project description:Interactions between humans and carnivores have existed for centuries due to competition for food and space. American black bears are increasing in abundance and populations are expanding geographically in many portions of its range, including areas that are also increasing in human density, often resulting in associated increases in human-bear conflict (hereafter, bear incidents). We used public reports of bear incidents in Michigan, USA, from 2003-2011 to assess the relative contributions of ecological and anthropogenic variables in explaining the spatial distribution of bear incidents and estimated the potential risk of bear incidents. We used weighted Normalized Difference Vegetation Index mean as an index of primary productivity, region (i.e., Upper Peninsula or Lower Peninsula), primary and secondary road densities, and percentage land cover type within 6.5-km2 circular buffers around bear incidents and random points. We developed 22 a priori models and used generalized linear models and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to rank models. The global model was the best compromise between model complexity and model fit (w = 0.99), with a ?AIC 8.99 units from the second best performing model. We found that as deciduous forest cover increased, the probability of bear incident occurrence increased. Among the measured anthropogenic variables, cultivated crops and primary roads were the most important in our AIC-best model and were both positively related to the probability of bear incident occurrence. The spatial distribution of relative bear incident risk varied markedly throughout Michigan. Forest cover fragmented with agriculture and other anthropogenic activities presents an environment that likely facilitates bear incidents. Our map can help wildlife managers identify areas of bear incident occurrence, which in turn can be used to help develop strategies aimed at reducing incidents. Researchers and wildlife managers can use similar mapping techniques to assess locations of specific conflict types or to address human impacts on endangered species.

Project description:The environmental quality of soil in the central part of the Northern Plateau of Spain has been analyzed by studying the heavy metal content of 166 samples belonging to the horizons A, B and C of 89 soil profiles. The analysis to assess the environmental risk of heavy metals in the soil was carried out by means of the spatial distribution of nine heavy metals and the use of several pollution indices. The results showed that the concentration values of heavy metals (x ± S) in the superficial soil horizons were the following: With a total of 6.71 ± 3.51 mg kg -1, the contents of Cd is 0.08 ± 0.06 mg kg-1, Co is 6.49 ± 3.21 mg kg-1, Cu is 17.19 ± 10.69 mg kg-1, Cr is 18.68 ± 12.28 mg kg-1, Hg is 0.083 ± 0.063 mg kg-1, Ni is 12.05 ± 6.76 mg kg-1, Pb is 14.10 ± 11.32 mg kg-1 and Zn is 35.31 ± 14.63 mg kg-1. These nine metals exceed the values of the natural geological background level of Tertiary period sediments and rocks that form part of the Northern Plateau in Spain. Nemerow and Potential Ecological Risk indices were calculated, with the "improved" Nemerow index allowing pollution within the soil superficial horizons to be determined. The data obtained indicated that the majority of the soil (54.61%) showed low to moderate contamination, 22.31% showed moderate contamination and 21.54% of the samples were not contaminated. If we consider the Potential of Ecological Risk Index (RI), the largest percentage of soil samples showed low (70.79%) to moderate (25.38%) ecological risk of potential contamination, where the rest of the soil presented a considerable risk of contamination. The nine trace elements were divided into three principal components: PC1 (Cu, Cr, Ni, Co and Zn), PC2 (As and Hg) and PC3 (Cd). All metals accumulated in the soil came from parent rock, agricultural practices and the run-off of residual waters towards rivers and streams caused by industrial development and an increase in population density. Finally, cartography of the spatial distribution of the heavy metal contents in the soil of the Northern Plateau of Spain was generated using Kriging interpolation methods. Furthermore, the total heavy metal contents in three soil orders present in the area, namely Entisols, Inceptisols, and Alfisols, were analyzed. Other soil parameters, such as the organic matter content, pH, clay content and cation exchange capacity, was measured to determine their influence on and correlation with the heavy metal contents.

Project description:BACKGROUND:In low-income countries it is difficult to obtain complete data that show spatial heterogeneity in the risk of tuberculosis within-and-between smaller administrative units. This may contribute to the partial effectiveness of tuberculosis control programs. The aim of this study was to estimate the spatial risk of tuberculosis distribution in Gurage Zone, Southern Ethiopia using limited spatial datasets. METHODS:A total of 1601 patient data that were retrieved from unit tuberculosis registers were included in the final analyses. The population and geo-location data were obtained from the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia. Altitude data were extracted from ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model Version 2. Aggregated datasets from sample of 169(40%), 254(60%) and 338(80%) kebeles were used to estimate the spatial risk of TB distribution in the Gurage Zone by using a geostatistical kriging approach. The best set of input parameters were decided based on the lowest prediction error criteria of the cross-validation technique. ArcGIS 10.2 was used for the spatial data analyses. RESULTS:The best semivariogram models were the Pentaspherical, Rational Quadratic, and K-Bessel for the 40, 60 and 80% spatial datasets, respectively. The predictive accuracies of the models have improved with the true anisotropy, altitude and latitude covariates, the change in detrending pattern from local to global, and the increase in size of spatial dataset. The risk of tuberculosis was estimated to be higher at western, northwest, southwest and southeast parts of the study area, and crossed between high and low at west-central parts. CONCLUSION:This study has underlined that the geostatistical kriging approach can be applied to estimate the spatial risk of tuberculosis distribution in data limited settings. The estimation results may help local public health authorities measure burden of the disease at all locations, identify geographical areas that require more attention, and evaluate the impacts of intervention programs.

Dataset Information

Geostatistical modeling of the spatial distribution of soil dioxins in the vicinity of an incinerator. 1. Theory and application to Midland, Michigan.

Publications

Geostatistical modeling of the spatial distribution of soil dioxins in the vicinity of an incinerator. 1. Theory and application to Midland, Michigan.

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