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Validation of syndromic surveillance for respiratory pathogen activity.

ABSTRACT: Syndromic surveillance is increasingly used to signal unusual illness events. To validate data-source selection, we retrospectively investigated the extent to which 6 respiratory syndromes (based on different medical registries) reflected respiratory pathogen activity. These syndromes showed higher levels in winter, which corresponded with higher laboratory counts of Streptococcus pneumoniae, respiratory syncytial virus, and influenza virus. Multiple linear regression models indicated that most syndrome variations (up to 86%) can be explained by counts of respiratory pathogens. Absenteeism and pharmacy syndromes might reflect nonrespiratory conditions as well. We also observed systematic syndrome elevations in the fall, which were unexplained by pathogen counts but likely reflected rhinovirus activity. Earliest syndrome elevations were observed in absenteeism data, followed by hospital data (+1 week), pharmacy/general practitioner consultations (+2 weeks), and deaths/laboratory submissions (test requests) (+3 weeks). We conclude that these syndromes can be used for respiratory syndromic surveillance, since they reflect patterns in respiratory pathogen activity.

SUBMITTER: van den Wijngaard C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2600280 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundAlthough syndromic surveillance is increasingly used to detect unusual illness, there is a debate whether it is useful for detecting local outbreaks. We evaluated whether syndromic surveillance detects local outbreaks of lower-respiratory infections (LRIs) without swamping true signals by false alarms.Methods and findingsUsing retrospective hospitalization data, we simulated prospective surveillance for LRI-elevations. Between 1999-2006, a total of 290762 LRIs were included by date of hospitalization and patients place of residence (>80% coverage, 16 million population). Two large outbreaks of Legionnaires disease in the Netherlands were used as positive controls to test whether these outbreaks could have been detected as local LRI elevations. We used a space-time permutation scan statistic to detect LRI clusters. We evaluated how many LRI-clusters were detected in 1999-2006 and assessed likely causes for the cluster-signals by looking for significantly higher proportions of specific hospital discharge diagnoses (e.g. Legionnaires disease) and overlap with regional influenza elevations. We also evaluated whether the number of space-time signals can be reduced by restricting the scan statistic in space or time. In 1999-2006 the scan-statistic detected 35 local LRI clusters, representing on average 5 clusters per year. The known Legionnaires' disease outbreaks in 1999 and 2006 were detected as LRI-clusters, since cluster-signals were generated with an increased proportion of Legionnaires disease patients (p:<0.0001). 21 other clusters coincided with local influenza and/or respiratory syncytial virus activity, and 1 cluster appeared to be a data artifact. For 11 clusters no likely cause was defined, some possibly representing as yet undetected LRI-outbreaks. With restrictions on time and spatial windows the scan statistic still detected the Legionnaires' disease outbreaks, without loss of timeliness and with less signals generated in time (up to 42% decline).ConclusionsTo our knowledge this is the first study that systematically evaluates the performance of space-time syndromic surveillance with nationwide high coverage data over a longer period. The results show that syndromic surveillance can detect local LRI-outbreaks in a timely manner, independent of laboratory-based outbreak detection. Furthermore, since comparatively few new clusters per year were observed that would prompt investigation, syndromic hospital-surveillance could be a valuable tool for detection of local LRI-outbreaks.

Project description:BackgroundInternet data can be used to improve infectious disease models. However, the representativeness and individual-level validity of internet-derived measures are largely unexplored as this requires ground truth data for study.ObjectiveThis study sought to identify relationships between Web-based behaviors and/or conversation topics and health status using a ground truth, survey-based dataset.MethodsThis study leveraged a unique dataset of self-reported surveys, microbiological laboratory tests, and social media data from the same individuals toward understanding the validity of individual-level constructs pertaining to influenza-like illness in social media data. Logistic regression models were used to identify illness in Twitter posts using user posting behaviors and topic model features extracted from users' tweets.ResultsOf 396 original study participants, only 81 met the inclusion criteria for this study. Of these participants' tweets, we identified only two instances that were related to health and occurred within 2 weeks (before or after) of a survey indicating symptoms. It was not possible to predict when participants reported symptoms using features derived from topic models (area under the curve [AUC]=0.51; P=.38), though it was possible using behavior features, albeit with a very small effect size (AUC=0.53; P?.001). Individual symptoms were also generally not predictable either. The study sample and a random sample from Twitter are predictably different on held-out data (AUC=0.67; P?.001), meaning that the content posted by people who participated in this study was predictably different from that posted by random Twitter users. Individuals in the random sample and the GoViral sample used Twitter with similar frequencies (similar @ mentions, number of tweets, and number of retweets; AUC=0.50; P=.19).ConclusionsTo our knowledge, this is the first instance of an attempt to use a ground truth dataset to validate infectious disease observations in social media data. The lack of signal, the lack of predictability among behaviors or topics, and the demonstrated volunteer bias in the study population are important findings for the large and growing body of disease surveillance using internet-sourced data.

Project description:Background:As next generation sequence technology has advanced, there have been parallel advances in genome-scale analysis programs for determining evolutionary relationships as proxies for epidemiological relationship in public health. Most new programs skip traditional steps of ortholog determination and multi-gene alignment, instead identifying variants across a set of genomes, then summarizing results in a matrix of single-nucleotide polymorphisms or alleles for standard phylogenetic analysis. However, public health authorities need to document the performance of these methods with appropriate and comprehensive datasets so they can be validated for specific purposes, e.g., outbreak surveillance. Here we propose a set of benchmark datasets to be used for comparison and validation of phylogenomic pipelines. Methods:We identified four well-documented foodborne pathogen events in which the epidemiology was concordant with routine phylogenomic analyses (reference-based SNP and wgMLST approaches). These are ideal benchmark datasets, as the trees, WGS data, and epidemiological data for each are all in agreement. We have placed these sequence data, sample metadata, and "known" phylogenetic trees in publicly-accessible databases and developed a standard descriptive spreadsheet format describing each dataset. To facilitate easy downloading of these benchmarks, we developed an automated script that uses the standard descriptive spreadsheet format. Results:Our "outbreak" benchmark datasets represent the four major foodborne bacterial pathogens (Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella enterica, Escherichia coli, and Campylobacter jejuni) and one simulated dataset where the "known tree" can be accurately called the "true tree". The downloading script and associated table files are available on GitHub: https://github.com/WGS-standards-and-analysis/datasets. Discussion:These five benchmark datasets will help standardize comparison of current and future phylogenomic pipelines, and facilitate important cross-institutional collaborations. Our work is part of a global effort to provide collaborative infrastructure for sequence data and analytic tools-we welcome additional benchmark datasets in our recommended format, and, if relevant, we will add these on our GitHub site. Together, these datasets, dataset format, and the underlying GitHub infrastructure present a recommended path for worldwide standardization of phylogenomic pipelines.

Project description:BackgroundAutomated Emergency Department syndromic surveillance systems (ED-SyS) are useful tools in routine surveillance activities and during mass gathering events to rapidly detect public health threats. To improve the existing surveillance infrastructure in a lower-resourced rural/remote setting and enhance monitoring during an upcoming mass gathering event, an automated low-cost and low-resources ED-SyS was developed and validated in Yukon, Canada.MethodsSyndromes of interest were identified in consultation with the local public health authorities. For each syndrome, case definitions were developed using published resources and expert elicitation. Natural language processing algorithms were then written using Stata LP 15.1 (Texas, USA) to detect syndromic cases from three different fields (e.g., triage notes; chief complaint; discharge diagnosis), comprising of free-text and standardized codes. Validation was conducted using data from 19,082 visits between October 1, 2018 to April 30, 2019. The National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS) records were used as a reference for the inclusion of International Classification of Disease, 10th edition (ICD-10) diagnosis codes. The automatic identification of cases was then manually validated by two raters and results were used to calculate positive predicted values for each syndrome and identify improvements to the detection algorithms.ResultsA daily secure file transfer of Yukon's Meditech ED-Tracker system data and an aberration detection plan was set up. A total of six syndromes were originally identified for the syndromic surveillance system (e.g., Gastrointestinal, Influenza-like-Illness, Mumps, Neurological Infections, Rash, Respiratory), with an additional syndrome added to assist in detecting potential cases of COVID-19. The positive predictive value for the automated detection of each syndrome ranged from 48.8-89.5% to 62.5-94.1% after implementing improvements identified during validation. As expected, no records were flagged for COVID-19 from our validation dataset.ConclusionsThe development and validation of automated ED-SyS in lower-resourced settings can be achieved without sophisticated platforms, intensive resources, time or costs. Validation is an important step for measuring the accuracy of syndromic surveillance, and ensuring it performs adequately in a local context. The use of three different fields and integration of both free-text and structured fields improved case detection.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Public health surveillance is the monitoring of data to detect and quantify unusual health events. Monitoring pre-diagnostic data, such as emergency department (ED) patient chief complaints, enables rapid detection of disease outbreaks. There are many sources of variation in such data; statistical methods need to accurately model them as a basis for timely and accurate disease outbreak methods. METHODS: Our new methods for modeling daily chief complaint counts are based on a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL) and were developed using data from the 76 EDs of the Indiana surveillance program from 2004 to 2008. Square root counts are decomposed into inter-annual, yearly-seasonal, day-of-the-week, and random-error components. Using this decomposition method, we develop a new synoptic-scale (days to weeks) outbreak detection method and carry out a simulation study to compare detection performance to four well-known methods for nine outbreak scenarios. RESULT: The components of the STL decomposition reveal insights into the variability of the Indiana ED data. Day-of-the-week components tend to peak Sunday or Monday, fall steadily to a minimum Thursday or Friday, and then rise to the peak. Yearly-seasonal components show seasonal influenza, some with bimodal peaks.Some inter-annual components increase slightly due to increasing patient populations. A new outbreak detection method based on the decomposition modeling performs well with 90 days or more of data. Control limits were set empirically so that all methods had a specificity of 97%. STL had the largest sensitivity in all nine outbreak scenarios. The STL method also exhibited a well-behaved false positive rate when run on the data with no outbreaks injected. CONCLUSION: The STL decomposition method for chief complaint counts leads to a rapid and accurate detection method for disease outbreaks, and requires only 90 days of historical data to be put into operation. The visualization tools that accompany the decomposition and outbreak methods provide much insight into patterns in the data, which is useful for surveillance operations.

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Validation of syndromic surveillance for respiratory pathogen activity.

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