Effects of school closures, 2008 winter influenza season, Hong Kong.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Cowling BJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC2609897 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:In winter 2018, schools in Hong Kong were closed 1 week before the scheduled Chinese New Year holiday to mitigate an influenza B virus epidemic. The intervention occurred after the epidemic peak and reduced overall incidence by ≈4.2%. School-based vaccination programs should be implemented to more effectively reduce influenza illnesses.
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Project description:School-based vaccination, as a means to mitigate seasonal influenza outbreak, depends on attaining adequate coverage rate. We evaluated the potential of a fully subsidized school outreach vaccination (SOV) program to achieve epidemic prevention potential in Hong Kong. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of SOV program 2018-2019 on influenza vaccination rates and influenza-like illness (ILI) in the primary school students and their household members during the influenza season. The vaccination rate was significantly higher in the schools offering SOV (intervention schools) (69.2% vs. 34.3%) than those not offering SOV (control schools) (p < .0001). The ILI rate was significantly reduced from 14.1% among non-vaccinated to 7.7% among vaccinated students (p < .0001). Influenza vaccine effectiveness against ILI was 45.3%. The vaccination rates of the household members were the same in both intervention and control schools except in the sub-group of preschool household members with the intervention significantly higher than the control group (43.8% vs. 32%, p < .0001). SOV program significantly improved influenza vaccine coverage, and the vaccine reduced ILI incidence. Extension of SOV program to all primary schools as well as kindergartens in Hong Kong could achieve epidemic prevention potential and should be evaluated.
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Project description:From January 2004 through June 2008, surveillance of dead wild birds in Hong Kong, People's Republic of China, periodically detected highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses (H5N1) in individual birds from different species. During this period, no viruses of subtype H5N1 were detected in poultry on farms and in markets in Hong Kong despite intensive surveillance. Thus, these findings in wild birds demonstrate the potential for wild birds to disseminate HPAI viruses (H5N1) to areas otherwise free from the viruses. Genetic and antigenic characterization of 47 HPAI (H5N1) viruses isolated from dead wild birds in Hong Kong showed that these isolates belonged to 2 antigenically distinct virus groups: clades 2.3.4 and 2.3.2. Although research has shown that clade 2.3.4 viruses are established in poultry in Asia, the emergence of clade 2.3.2 viruses in nonpasserine birds from Hong Kong, Japan, and Russia raises the possibility that this virus lineage may have become established in wild birds.
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Project description:School closures are used to reduce seasonal and pandemic influenza transmission, yet evidence of their effectiveness is sparse. In Argentina, annual winter school breaks occur during the influenza season, providing an opportunity to study this intervention. We used 2005-2008 national weekly surveillance data of visits to a health care provider for influenza-like illness (ILI) from all provinces. Using Serfling-specified Poisson regressions and population-based census denominators, we developed incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for the 3 weeks before, 2 weeks during, and 3 weeks after the break. For persons 5-64 years of age, IRRs were <1 for at least 1 week after the break. Observed rates returned to expected by the third week after the break; overall decrease among persons of all ages was 14%. The largest decrease was among children 5-14 years of age during the week after the break (37% lower IRR). Among adults, effects were weaker and delayed. Two-week winter school breaks significantly decreased visits to a health care provider for ILI among school-aged children and nonelderly adults.
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Project description:Like other tropical and subtropical regions, influenza viruses can circulate year-round in Hong Kong. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a significant decrease in influenza activity. The objective of this study was to retrospectively forecast influenza activity during the year 2020 and assess the impact of COVID-19 public health social measures (PHSMs) on influenza activity and hospital admissions in Hong Kong. Using weekly surveillance data on influenza virus activity in Hong Kong from 2010 to 2019, we developed a statistical modeling framework to forecast influenza virus activity and associated hospital admissions. We conducted short-term forecasts (1-4 weeks ahead) and medium-term forecasts (1-13 weeks ahead) for the year 2020, assuming no PHSMs were implemented against COVID-19. We estimated the reduction in transmissibility, peak magnitude, attack rates, and influenza-associated hospitalization rate resulting from these PHSMs. For short-term forecasts, mean ambient ozone concentration and school holidays were found to contribute to better prediction performance, while absolute humidity and ozone concentration improved the accuracy of medium-term forecasts. We observed a maximum reduction of 44.6% (95% CI: 38.6% - 51.9%) in transmissibility, 75.5% (95% CI: 73.0% - 77.6%) in attack rate, 41.5% (95% CI: 13.9% - 55.7%) in peak magnitude, and 63.1% (95% CI: 59.3% - 66.3%) in cumulative influenza-associated hospitalizations during the winter-spring period of the 2019/2020 season in Hong Kong. The implementation of PHSMs to control COVID-19 had a substantial impact on influenza transmission and associated burden in Hong Kong. Incorporating information on factors influencing influenza transmission improved the accuracy of our predictions.
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Project description:Background:Influenza A(H3N2) viruses circulated for 12 consecutive months in Hong Kong in 2016-2017, peaking in late June and July 2017. The objective of our study was to estimate the effectiveness of influenza vaccination in preventing hospitalizations in children in Hong Kong. Methods:We conducted a test-negative study between 1 September 2016 and 31 August 2017, enrolling children 6 months to 17 years of age hospitalized for an acute respiratory infection. Influenza was diagnosed by PCR on nasopharyngeal aspirates. Results:We enrolled 5514 children, including 3608 children 6 months to 2 years, 1600 children 3-5 years, and 1206 children 6-17 years of age. Influenza-associated hospitalizations occurred throughout the study year but time of vaccination of these children was also wide spread, from September 2016 to May 2017. Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 39.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.7%-57.3%) against laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H3N2). In analyses stratified by time since vaccination, the VE against influenza A(H3N2) was 52.8% (95% CI, 17.1%-73.2%) within 3 months of vaccination, and 31.2% (95% CI, -6.6% to 55.6%) 4-6 months after vaccination. Conclusions:Influenza vaccination was effective in preventing hospitalizations in children in Hong Kong.
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Project description:Recent advances in mathematical modeling and inference methodologies have enabled development of systems capable of forecasting seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate regions in real-time. However, in subtropical and tropical regions, influenza epidemics can occur throughout the year, making routine forecast of influenza more challenging. Here we develop and report forecast systems that are able to predict irregular non-seasonal influenza epidemics, using either the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter or a modified particle filter in conjunction with a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. We applied these model-filter systems to retrospectively forecast influenza epidemics in Hong Kong from January 1998 to December 2013, including the 2009 pandemic. The forecast systems were able to forecast both the peak timing and peak magnitude for 44 epidemics in 16 years caused by individual influenza strains (i.e., seasonal influenza A(H1N1), pandemic A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and B), as well as 19 aggregate epidemics caused by one or more of these influenza strains. Average forecast accuracies were 37% (for both peak timing and magnitude) at 1-3 week leads, and 51% (peak timing) and 50% (peak magnitude) at 0 lead. Forecast accuracy increased as the spread of a given forecast ensemble decreased; the forecast accuracy for peak timing (peak magnitude) increased up to 43% (45%) for H1N1, 93% (89%) for H3N2, and 53% (68%) for influenza B at 1-3 week leads. These findings suggest that accurate forecasts can be made at least 3 weeks in advance for subtropical and tropical regions.
| S-EPMC4520691 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We show that school closures reduced COVID-19 incidence rates in children by 31%-46% in Hong Kong in 2022. After school reopening accompanied by mask mandates, daily rapid testing, and vaccination requirements, school-reported cases correlated with community incidence rates. Safe school reopening is possible when appropriate preventive measures are used.
| S-EPMC10461670 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Although Hong Kong has one of the best life expectancy (LE) records in the world, second only to Japan for women, we know very little about the changes in the health status of the older adult population. Our article aims to provide a better understanding of trends in both chronic morbidity and disability for older men and women. The authors compute chronic morbidity-free and disability-free life expectancy and the proportion of both in relation to total LE using the Sullivan method to examine whether Hong Kong older adults are experiencing a compression of morbidity and disability and whether there is any gender difference in relation to mortality and morbidity. The results of this study show that Hong Kong women tend to outlive Hong Kong men but are also more likely to suffer from a 'double disadvantage', namely more years of life with more chronic morbidity and disability. There has also been a significant expansion of chronic morbidity, as chronic morbidity-free life expectancy (CMFLE) decreased substantially for both genders from 1996 to 2008. Although disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) increased during this period, it increased at a slower pace compared to LE. The proportion of life without chronic morbidity also declined remarkably during these 12 years. Among the advanced ages, the proportion of remaining life in good health without disability has decreased since 1996, indicating a relative expansion of disability.
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Project description:BackgroundThe New Senior Secondary (NSS) curriculum in Hong Kong aims to change the exam-oriented culture and promote students' all-around development. This reform emphasizes student-centered learning and promotes a shift from a top-down approach to school-based management, with the ultimate goal to help students become lifelong learners. This study examined students' perceptions of the NSS curriculum with a focus on their noncognitive development (e.g., self-understanding, positive values, purpose in life, and resilience).MethodsThe data were collected from 3,498 Secondary 6 students in Hong Kong (Girls: 47.7%; Mean age: 17.33 years) using a self-reported questionnaire in 2015. We examined the psychometric properties of the instrument, "Perceptions of the New Secondary School Curriculum" (PNSC), and conducted multigroup CFA to evaluate the measurement invariance of PNSC across genders. Paired t-test analysis was used to examine whether students perceived the junior and senior secondary curricula differently. A series of multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) were conducted to examine students' perceptions of the curriculum by gender and by academic performance level.ResultsResults based on percentage responses showed that most students liked the curriculum and acknowledged its benefits in promoting their noncognitive development. However, substantial proportions of the students also reported relatively negative responses to some items, particularly their fondness for senior secondary education. Students generally reported higher fondness for the junior secondary curriculum than for the senior secondary curriculum. Girls had more positive perceptions of the NSS curriculum than did boys. High-performing students liked the NSS curriculum the most and perceived the most benefits of the curriculum in promoting their noncognitive skills, whereas low-performing students showed the lowest levels of fondness for/interest in the curriculum and perceived benefits.ConclusionsOur findings support previous evidence showing initial success in promoting students' noncognitive skills but also alert educators and policymakers that the curriculum should not leave the low-performing students behind. Collective efforts from schools, educational bureaus, researchers, and policymakers are needed to take appropriate measures to cater to students' balanced development.
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