Trends in healthy life expectancy in Hong Kong SAR 1996-2008.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Cheung KS
PROVIDER: S-EPMC2995861 | biostudies-other | 2010 Dec
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:In 2014, the Centre for Health Protection in Hong Kong introduced screening for influenza C virus (ICV) as part of its routine surveillance for infectious agents in specimens collected from patients presenting with symptoms of respiratory viral infection, including influenza-like illness (ILI). A retrospective analysis of ICV detections up to week 26 of 2019 revealed persistent low-level circulation, with two outbreaks having occurred in the winters of 2015 to 2016 and 2017 to 2018. These outbreaks occurred at the same time as, and were dwarfed by, seasonal epidemics of influenza types A and B. Gene sequencing studies on stored ICV-positive clinical specimens from the two outbreaks have shown that the hemagglutinin-esterase (HE) genes of the viruses fall into two of the six recognized genetic lineages (represented by C/Kanagawa/1/76 and C/São Paulo/378/82), with there being significant genetic drift compared to earlier circulating viruses within both lineages. The location of a number of encoded amino acid substitutions in hemagglutinin-esterase fusion (HEF) glycoproteins suggests that antigenic drift may also have occurred. Observations of ICV outbreaks in other countries, with some of the infections being associated with severe disease, indicates that ICV infection has the potential to have significant clinical and health care impacts in humans.IMPORTANCE Influenza C virus infection of humans is common, and reinfection can occur throughout life. While symptoms are generally mild, severe disease cases have been reported, but knowledge of the virus is limited, as little systematic surveillance for influenza C virus is conducted and the virus cannot be studied by classical virologic methods because it cannot be readily isolated in laboratories. A combination of systematic surveillance in Hong Kong SAR, China, and new gene sequencing methods has been used in this study to assess influenza C virus evolution and provides evidence for a 2-year cycle of disease outbreaks. The results of studies like that reported here are key to developing an understanding of the impact of influenza C virus infection in humans and how virus evolution might be associated with epidemics.
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Project description:ObjectivesTo evaluate the effect of hypertension and related comorbidities on the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) using EuroQol 5-dimensions instrument with five-level scale (EQ-5D-5L) Hong Kong (HK) version.DesignData were analysed by a secondary data analysis based on a cross-sectional study assessing experience on public specialist outpatient service.SettingA representative sample was recruited from 26 specialist outpatient clinics in HK.ParticipantsA total of 4528 patients with hypertension aged 18 or above who responded to the survey.InterventionEQ-5D-5L HK was applied to assess the HRQoL. The five-dimension descriptive system and the utility index of EQ-5D-5L were treated as the dependent variable in the current study. Regression modelling was applied to estimate the effect of hypertension and related comorbidities on health-related quality of life.ResultsMore respondents were women (53.9%), aged ≥65 years old (60.1%), and with primary educational attainment or below (52.3%). A total of 1466 respondents (32.4%) also reported suffering from diabetes, heart disease (20.8%), vision problem (1.7%) and cancer (1.5%). In the ordinal least squares model, utility decreased most when patients reported having physical disability associated with hypertension (beta=-0.395, SE=0.047), and 0.128, 0.064, 0.05 and 0.048 for mental problem, cancer, vision problem and heart problem. In the Tobit model, the utility reduced most for comorbidity of physical disability, and then mental problem, cancer, vision problem, heart problem and diabetes. For first part of two-part model, respondents coliving with mental problem were 10% less likely to report a full health. For the second part of two-part model, the respondents with physical disability had 0.294 lower in utility.ConclusionsRespondents with hypertension reported a low EQ-5D utility score. Respondents were women, with a high education, fully employed and living with families reported better HRQoL. There is a significant effect of comorbidity influence on the decreased HRQoL, particularly those with physical disability and mental problem.
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Project description:BackgroundVaccination has been the most important measure to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. The vaccination coverage was relatively low in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region China, compared to Singapore, in early 2022. Hypothetically, if the two regions, Hong Kong (HK) and Singapore (SG), swap their vaccination coverage rate, what outcome would occur?MethodWe adopt the Susceptible - Vaccinated - Exposed - Infectious - Hospitalized - Death - Recovered model with a time-varying transmission rate and fit the model to weekly reported COVID-19 deaths (the data up to 2022 Nov 4) in HK and SG using R package POMP. After we obtain a reasonable fitting, we rerun our model with the estimated parameter values and swap the vaccination rates between HK and SG to explore what would happen.ResultsOur model fits the data well. The reconstructed transmission rate was higher in HK than in SG in 2022. With a higher vaccination rate as in SG, the death total reported in HK would decrease by 37.5% and the timing of the peak would delay by 3 weeks. With a lower vaccination rate as in HK, the death total reported in SG would increase to 5.5-fold high with a peak 6 weeks earlier than the actual during the Delta variant period.ConclusionsVaccination rate changes in HK and SG may lead to very different outcomes. This is likely due that the estimated transmission rates were very different in HK and SG which reflect the different control policies and dominant variants. Because of strong control measures, HK avoided large-scale community transmission of the Delta variant. Given the high breakthrough infection rate and transmission rate of the Omicron variant, increasing the vaccination rate in HK will likely yield a mild (but significant) contribution in terms of lives saved. While in SG, lower vaccination coverage to the level of HK will be disastrous.
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Project description:BackgroundAs society ages, promoting the health of the extra years of life is of paramount importance for health, social care and pension provision. Increases in life expectancy in the UK and elsewhere have slowed in recent years, but the reasons for this are unclear. No formal comparison of trends in healthy life years between the UK and the other countries of the EU28 in recent times has been published. These countries are geographically proximate, and share many social, cultural and demographic properties, making them interesting and useful comparators, especially as the UK prepared to leave the European Union in 2020.MethodsWe calculated sex-specific healthy life years (HLY), unhealthy life years (ULY), mild and severe ULY at birth and age 65 using life tables and age-specific prevalence of activity limitation amongst the EU28 between 2008 and 2016 from EuroHex. Trends in life expectancy, HLY, ULY and proportion of life spent healthy (HLY%) were compared. We then decomposed HLY temporal changes into relative effects of changes in healthy life and mortality, by age group.FindingsLife expectancy at birth, and age 65, in the UK were increasing rapidly in 2008 but slowed around 2011. Germany, Portugal and France showed evidence of a similar slowing. HLY at birth in the UK decreased, whereas it increased in most EU28 countries. The UK experienced a period of absolute expansion of unhealthy life in both sexes. The reduction in HLY at birth in the UK was mainly attributable to increases in unhealthy life in younger age groups.InterpretationThe UK's performance relative to the other countries of the EU28 was poor after 2011, combining static life expectancy and reductions in healthy life years. These trends suggest that the UK government's Ageing Society Grand Challenge (to increase the healthy life expectancy by five years by 2035) will be difficult to attain.FundingNational Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Policy Research Programme conducted through the NIHR Older People and Frailty Policy Research Unit, PR-PRU-1217-21502. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.
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Project description:From 2014 to week 07/2020 the Centre for Health Protection in Hong Kong conducted screening for influenza C virus (ICV). A retrospective analysis of ICV detections to week 26/2019 revealed persistent low-level circulation with outbreaks occurring biennially in the winters of 2015 to 2016 and 2017 to 2018 (R. S. Daniels et al., J Virol 94:e01051-20, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1128/JVI.01051-20). Here, we report on an outbreak occurring in 2019 to 2020, reinforcing the observation of biennial seasonality in Hong Kong. All three outbreaks occurred in similar time frames, were subsequently dwarfed by seasonal epidemics of influenza types A and B, and were caused by similar proportions of C/Kanagawa/1/76 (K)-lineage and C/São Paulo/378/82 S1- and S2-sublineage viruses. Ongoing genetic drift was observed in all genes, with some evidence of amino acid substitution in the hemagglutinin-esterase-fusion (HEF) glycoprotein possibly associated with antigenic drift. A total of 61 ICV genomes covering the three outbreaks were analyzed for reassortment, and 9 different reassortant constellations were identified, 1 K-lineage, 4 S1-sublineage, and 4 S2-sublineage, with 6 of these being identified first in the 2019-1920 outbreak (2 S2-lineage and 4 S1-lineage). The roles that virus interference/enhancement, ICV persistent infection, genome evolution, and reassortment might play in the observed seasonality of ICV in Hong Kong are discussed. IMPORTANCE Influenza C virus (ICV) infection of humans is common, with the great majority of people being infected during childhood, though reinfection can occur throughout life. While infection normally results in "cold-like" symptoms, severe disease cases have been reported in recent years. However, knowledge of ICV is limited due to poor systematic surveillance and an inability to propagate the virus in large amounts in the laboratory. Following recent systematic surveillance in Hong Kong SAR, China, and direct ICV gene sequencing from clinical specimens, a 2-year cycle of disease outbreaks (epidemics) has been identified, with gene mixing playing a significant role in ICV evolution. Studies like those reported here are key to developing an understanding of the impact of influenza C virus infection in humans, notably where comorbidities exist and severe respiratory disease can develop.
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Project description:Background Life expectancy (LE) is increasing all over the world, and relying on LE alone is no longer sufficient to identify whether a country is having a healthier population. Examining the increase in LE in relation to health ― health expectancy estimation ― is advised to ascertain the increase (or decrease) in LE without disability over time. This study examines the trends in health expectancy at age 60 in Bangladesh from 1996 to 2016. Methods Mortality information from United Nations and World Health Organization and morbidity information from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics were combined using the Sullivan method. Results With an overall declining trend over the study period and a big drop in disability rates during 2012–2013, the disability rates were observed 1.6–1.7% in 2016. The declining trend in disability may have two-fold implications: (1) among the 98.3% older adults (≥60 years) with no severe/extreme disability, those were in jobs could have continued their work if there was no mandatory retirement at age 59, and (2) the 1.7% (translates into 0.2 million in 2020) older adults with severe/extreme disability require care assistance with their daily activities. The observed gain in disability-free life expectancy, the decrease in life expectancy with disability and its proportion allude to the compression of morbidity and healthier older adults over time. Conclusion In 2020, Bangladesh had 13.2 million (i.e., 8% of the total population) older adults, which is increasing day by day. The policy makers and government are suggested to prioritize the issues of older adults, particularly disability, care needs, retirement age, and health in the light of the current study’s findings. Utilizing health expectancy research is suggested to understand the combined effect of disability and mortality for considering policy changes.
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Project description:BackgroundThe relative effects of combinations of CKD, heart disease, and stroke on risk of mortality, direct medical costs, and life expectancy are unknown.MethodsIn a retrospective cohort study of 506,849 Chinese adults in Hong Kong with hypertension, we used Cox regressions to examine associations between all-cause mortality and combinations of moderate CKD (eGFR of 30-59 ml/min per 1.73 m2), severe CKD (eGFR of 15-29 ml/min per 1.73 m2), heart disease (coronary heart disease or heart failure), and stroke, and modeling to estimate annual public direct medical costs and life expectancy.ResultsOver a median follow-up of 5.8 years (2.73 million person-years), 55,666 deaths occurred. Having an increasing number of comorbidities was associated with incremental increases in mortality risk and medical costs and reductions in life expectancy. Compared with patients who had neither CKD nor cardiovascular disease, patients with one, two, or three conditions (heart disease, stroke, and moderate CKD) had relative risk of mortality increased by about 70%, 160%, and 290%, respectively; direct medical costs increased by about 70%, 160%, and 280%, respectively; and life expectancy at age 60 years decreased by about 5, 10, and 15 years, respectively. Burdens were higher with severe CKD.ConclusionsThis study demonstrated extremely high mortality risk and medical cost increases for severe CKD, exceeding the combined effects from heart disease and stroke. Mortality risks and costs for moderate CKD, heart disease, and stroke were similar individually and roughly multiplicative for any combination. These findings suggest that to reduce mortality and health care costs in patients with hypertension, CKD prevention and intervention merits priority equal to that of cardiovascular disease.
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