Performance of climate envelope models in retrodicting recent changes in bird population size from observed climatic change.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Green RE
PROVIDER: S-EPMC2610063 | biostudies-literature | 2008 Oct
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Performance of climate envelope models in retrodicting recent changes in bird population size from observed climatic change.
Green Rhys E RE Collingham Yvonne C YC Willis Stephen G SG Gregory Richard D RD Smith Ken W KW Huntley Brian B
Biology letters 20081001 5
Twenty-five-year population trends of 42 bird species rare as breeders in the UK were examined in relation to changes in climatic suitability simulated using climatic envelope models. The effects of a series of potential 'nuisance' variables were also assessed. A statistically significant positive correlation was found across species between population trend and climate suitability trend. The demonstration that climate envelope models are able to retrodict species' population trends provides a v ...[more]
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