Dataset Information

Prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak.

ABSTRACT: El Niño/Southern Oscillation related climate anomalies were analyzed by using a combination of satellite measurements of elevated sea-surface temperatures and subsequent elevated rainfall and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index data. A Rift Valley fever (RVF) risk mapping model using these climate data predicted areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa from December 2006 to May 2007. The predictions were subsequently confirmed by entomological and epidemiological field investigations of virus activity in the areas identified as at risk. Accurate spatial and temporal predictions of disease activity, as it occurred first in southern Somalia and then through much of Kenya before affecting northern Tanzania, provided a 2 to 6 week period of warning for the Horn of Africa that facilitated disease outbreak response and mitigation activities. To our knowledge, this is the first prospective prediction of a RVF outbreak.

SUBMITTER: Anyamba A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2626607 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak.

Anyamba Assaf A Chretien Jean-Paul JP Small Jennifer J Tucker Compton J CJ Formenty Pierre B PB Richardson Jason H JH Britch Seth C SC Schnabel David C DC Erickson Ralph L RL Linthicum Kenneth J KJ

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20090114 3

El Niño/Southern Oscillation related climate anomalies were analyzed by using a combination of satellite measurements of elevated sea-surface temperatures and subsequent elevated rainfall and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index data. A Rift Valley fever (RVF) risk mapping model using these climate data predicted areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa from December 2006 to May 2007. The predictions were subsequently ...[more]

PMID: 19144928

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Project description:BackgroundRift Valley Fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that can cause severe haemorrhagic fevers in humans and high mortality rates and abortions in livestock. On 10 December 2020, the Uganda Ministry of Health was notified of the death of a 25-year-old male who tested RVF-positive by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) at the Uganda Virus Research Institute. We investigated to determine the scope of the outbreak, identify exposure factors, and institute control measures.MethodsA suspected case was acute-onset fever (or axillary temperature > 37.5 °C) and ≥ 2 of: headache, muscle or joint pain, unexpected bleeding, and any gastroenteritis symptom in a resident of Sembabule District from 1 November to 31 December 2020. A confirmed case was the detection of RVF virus nucleic acid by RT-PCR or serum IgM antibodies detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). A suspected animal case was livestock (cattle, sheep, goats) with any history of abortion. A confirmed animal case was the detection of anti-RVF IgM antibodies by ELISA. We took blood samples from herdsmen who worked with the index case for RVF testing and conducted interviews to understand more about exposures and clinical characteristics. We reviewed medical records and conducted an active community search to identify additional suspects. Blood samples from animals on the index case's farm and two neighbouring farms were taken for RVF testing.ResultsThe index case regularly drank raw cow milk. None of the seven herdsmen who worked with him nor his brother's wife had symptoms; however, a blood sample from one herdsman was positive for anti-RVF-specific IgM and IgG. Neither the index case nor the additional confirmed case-patient slaughtered or butchered any sick/dead animals nor handled abortus; however, some of the other herdsmen did report high-risk exposures to animal body fluids and drinking raw milk. Among 55 animal samples collected (2 males and 53 females), 29 (53%) were positive for anti-RVF-IgG.ConclusionsTwo human RVF cases occurred in Sembabule District during December 2020, likely caused by close interaction between infected cattle and humans. A district-wide animal serosurvey, animal vaccination, and community education on infection prevention practices campaign could inform RVF exposures and reduce disease burden.

Dataset Information

Prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak.

Publications

Prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak.

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