Development of life-expectancy tables for people with type 2 diabetes.
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ABSTRACT: Aims
To develop tables that report the life expectancy associated with levels of major modifiable risk factors for patients with type 2 diabetes.Methods and results
A set of tables reporting life-expectancy stratified by age-sex groups for combinations of modifiable risk was constructed based on predictions from the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model. This model is based on a system of parametric proportional hazards risk equations for estimating mortality and vascular complications of diabetes that have been estimated from 3642 patients from the UKPDS. The tables show substantial potential gains in life expectancy within every age group from modifying major risk factors. The estimated life expectancy of men at age of 55 years with type 2 diabetes, 5 years after diagnosis, varies between 13.2 years for a patient who smokes, has systolic blood pressure of 180 mmHg, a total:HDL cholesterol ratio of 8, and HbA(1c) of 10%, and 21.1 years for a non-smoker with SBP of 120 mmHg, total/HDL ratio of 4, and HbA(1c) of 6%.Conclusion
Life expectancy tables provide a potentially useful tool of conveying prognostic information to people with type 2 diabetes and suggest substantial scope for increasing longevity by improving modifiable risk factors.
SUBMITTER: Leal J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC2663724 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Development of life-expectancy tables for people with type 2 diabetes.
Leal Jose J Gray Alastair M AM Clarke Philip M PM
European heart journal 20081224 7
<h4>Aims</h4>To develop tables that report the life expectancy associated with levels of major modifiable risk factors for patients with type 2 diabetes.<h4>Methods and results</h4>A set of tables reporting life-expectancy stratified by age-sex groups for combinations of modifiable risk was constructed based on predictions from the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model. This model is based on a system of parametric proportional hazards risk equations for estimating mor ...[more]
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Project description:Aims/hypothesisTables reporting life expectancies by common risk factors are available for individuals with type 2 diabetes; however, there is currently no published equivalent for individuals with type 1 diabetes. We aimed to develop a life expectancy table using a recently published simulation model for individuals with type 1 diabetes.MethodsThe simulation model was developed using data from a real-world population of patients with type 1 diabetes selected from the Swedish National Diabetes Register. The following six important risk factors were included in the life table: sex; age; current smoking status; BMI; eGFR; and HbA1c. For each of 1024 cells in the life expectancy table, a synthetic cohort containing 1000 individuals was created, with other risk factors assigned values representative of the real-world population. The simulations were executed for all synthetic cohorts and life expectancy for each cell was calculated as mean survival time of the individuals in the respective cohort.ResultsThere was a substantial variation in life expectancy across patients with different risk factor levels. Life expectancy of 20-year-old men varied from 29.3 years to 50.6 years, constituting a gap of 21.3 years between those with worst and best risk factor levels. In 20-year-old women, this gap was 18.9 years (life expectancy range 35.0-53.9 years). The variation in life expectancy was a function of the combination of risk factor values, with HbA1c and eGFR consistently showing a negative and positive correlation, respectively, with life expectancy at any level combination of other risk factors. Individuals with the lowest level (20 kg/m2) and highest level of BMI (35 kg/m2) had a lower life expectancy compared with those with a BMI of 25 kg/m2. Non-smokers and women had a higher life expectancy than smokers and men, respectively, with the difference in life expectancy ranging from 0.4 years to 2.7 years between non-smokers and smokers, and from 1.9 years to 5.9 years between women and men, depending on levels of other risk factors.Conclusions/interpretationThe life expectancy table generated in this study shows a substantial variation in life expectancy across individuals with different modifiable risk factors. The table allows for rapid communications of risk in an easily understood format between healthcare professionals, health economists, researchers, policy makers and patients. Particularly, it supports clinicians in their discussion with patients about the benefits of improving risk factors.
| S-EPMC8310903 | biostudies-literature
Project description:There are few recent and methodologically robust life expectancy (LE) tables for dogs or cats. This study aimed to generate LE tables for these species with clinical records from >1,000 Banfield Pet hospitals in the USA. Using Sullivan's method, LE tables were generated across survey years 2013-2019, by survey year, and for subpopulations defined by sex, adult body size group (purebred dogs only: toy, small, medium, large and giant), and median body condition score (BCS) over life. The deceased population for each survey year comprised animals with a recorded date of death in that year; survivors had no death date in that year and were confirmed living by a veterinary visit in a subsequent year. The dataset totaled 13,292,929 unique dogs and 2,390,078 unique cats. LE at birth (LEbirth) was 12.69 years (95% CI: 12.68-12.70) for all dogs, 12.71 years (12.67-12.76) for mixed-breed dogs, 11.18 years (11.16-11.20) for cats, and 11.12 (11.09-11.14) for mixed-breed cats. LEbirth increased with decreasing dog size group and increasing survey year 2013 to 2018 for all dog size groups and cats. Female dogs and cats had significantly higher LEbirth than males: 12.76 years (12.75-12.77) vs. 12.63 years (12.62-12.64), and 11.68 years (11.65-11.71) vs. 10.72 years (10.68-10.75), respectively. Obese dogs (BCS 5/5) had a significantly lower LEbirth [11.71 years (11.66-11.77)] than overweight dogs (BCS 4/5) [13.14 years (13.12-13.16)] and dogs with ideal BCS 3/5 [13.18 years (13.16-13.19)]. The LEbirth of cats with BCS 4/5 [13.67 years (13.62-13.71)] was significantly higher than cats with BCS 5/5 [12.56 years (12.45-12.66)] or BCS 3/5 [12.18 years (12.14-12.21)]. These LE tables provide valuable information for veterinarians and pet owners and a foundation for research hypotheses, as well as being a stepping-stone to disease-associated LE tables.
| S-EPMC9989186 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWe aimed to assess the impact of healthy cardiovascular health (CVH) on diabetic complications, mortality, and life expectancy among people with type 2 diabetes and to explore whether inflammation marker mediate these associations.MethodsThis prospective cohort study included 33,236 participants (aged 40-72) with type 2 diabetes from the UK Biobank with annual follow-up from 2006 to 2010 to 2020. Type 2 diabetes was ascertained from self-report, glycated hemoglobin ≥ 6.5%, hospital inpatient registry, or glucose-lowering medication use. Information on mortality was derived from the national death registry. Favorable CVH metrics consisted of non-smoker, regular physical activity, a healthy diet, non-overweight, untreated resting blood pressure < 120/<80 mm Hg, and untreated total cholesterol < 200 mg/dL. Participants were categorized into three groups according to the number of favorable CVH metrics: unfavorable (0 or 1); intermediate (any 2 or 3); and favorable (4 or more). Inflammation marker, as measured by C-reactive protein (CRP), was assessed at baseline and categorized as low (≤ 3 mg/L) and high (> 3 mg/L). Data were analyzed using Cox regression models, flexible parametric survival models, and mediation models.ResultsDuring the follow-up (median: 11.7 years), 3133 (9.4%) cases of diabetes complications and 4701 (14.1%) deaths occurred. Compared to unfavorable CVH, favorable CVH was associated with a reduced risk of diabetes complications (HR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.26-0.47) and all-cause mortality (HR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.43-0.65). In participants with unfavorable CVH, life expectancy at age 45 had a significantly reduction of 7.20 (95% CI, 5.48-8.92) years compared to those with a favorable CVH. Among people with type 2 diabetes, the proportions of diabetes complications and all-cause mortality that would be reduced by promoting the favorable CVH was 61.5% and 39.1%, respectively. CRP level mediated 14.3% and 29.7% of the associations between CVH and diabetic complication and all-cause mortality, respectively.ConclusionA favorable CVH was associated with lower risk of diabetes complications and mortality risk, and was associated with a longer life expectancy among people with type 2 diabetes. This association may be in part accounted for by inflammatory processes. Our findings highlight the importance of favorable CVH for the prevention of diabetic complications and all-cause mortality among people with type 2 diabetes, and underscores the need to monitor inflammation among people with unfavorable CVH.
| S-EPMC9615235 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Type 1 diabetes has historically been associated with a significant reduction in life expectancy. Major advances in treatment of type 1 diabetes have occurred in the past 3 decades. Contemporary estimates of the effect of type 1 diabetes on life expectancy are needed.To examine current life expectancy in people with and without type 1 diabetes in Scotland. We also examined whether any loss of life expectancy in patients with type 1 diabetes is confined to those who develop kidney disease.Prospective cohort of all individuals alive in Scotland with type 1 diabetes who were aged 20 years or older from 2008 through 2010 and were in a nationwide register (n=24,691 contributing 67,712 person-years and 1043 deaths).Differences in life expectancy between those with and those without type 1 diabetes and the percentage of the difference due to various causes.Life expectancy at an attained age of 20 years was an additional 46.2 years among men with type 1 diabetes and 57.3 years among men without it, an estimated loss in life expectancy with diabetes of 11.1 years (95% CI, 10.1-12.1). Life expectancy from age 20 years was an additional 48.1 years among women with type 1 diabetes and 61.0 years among women without it, an estimated loss with diabetes of 12.9 years (95% CI, 11.7-14.1). Even among those with type 1 diabetes with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 or higher, life expectancy was reduced (49.0 years in men, 53.1 years in women) giving an estimated loss from age 20 years of 8.3 years (95% CI, 6.5-10.1) for men and 7.9 years (95% CI, 5.5-10.3) for women. Overall, the largest percentage of the estimated loss in life expectancy was related to ischemic heart disease (36% in men, 31% in women) but death from diabetic coma or ketoacidosis was associated with the largest percentage of the estimated loss occurring before age 50 years (29.4% in men, 21.7% in women).Estimated life expectancy for patients with type 1 diabetes in Scotland based on data from 2008 through 2010 indicated an estimated loss of life expectancy at age 20 years of approximately 11 years for men and 13 years for women compared with the general population without type 1 diabetes.
| S-EPMC4426486 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundType 2 diabetes (T2D) causes substantial disease burden and is projected to affect an increasing number of people in coming decades. This study provides projected estimates of life years free of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and years of life lost ([Formula: see text]) associated with T2D for Germany in the years 2015 and 2040.MethodsBased on an illness-death model and the associated mathematical relation between prevalence, incidence and mortality, we projected the prevalence of diagnosed T2D using currently available data on the incidence rate of diagnosed T2D and mortality rates of people with and without diagnosed T2D. Projection of prevalence was achieved by integration of a partial differential equation, which governs the illness-death model. These projected parameters were used as input values to calculate life years free of T2D and [Formula: see text] associated with T2D for the German population aged 40 to 100 years in the years 2015 and 2040, while accounting for different assumptions on future trends in T2D incidence and mortality.ResultsAssuming a constant incidence rate, women and men at age 40 years in 2015 will live approximately 38 years and 33 years free of T2D, respectively. Up to the year 2040, these numbers are projected to increase by 1.0 years and 1.3 years. Assuming a decrease in T2D-associated excess mortality of 2% per year, women and men aged 40 years with T2D in 2015 will be expected to lose 1.6 and 2.7 years of life, respectively, compared to a same aged person without T2D. In 2040, these numbers would reduce by approximately 0.9 years and 1.6 years. This translates to 10.8 million and 6.4 million [Formula: see text] in the German population aged 40-100 years with prevalent T2D in 2015 and 2040, respectively.ConclusionsGiven expected trends in mortality and no increase in T2D incidence, the burden due to premature mortality associated with T2D will decrease on the individual as well as on the population level. In addition, the expected lifetime without T2D is likely to increase. However, these trends strongly depend on future improvements of excess mortality associated with T2D and future incidence of T2D, which should motivate increased efforts of primary and tertiary prevention.
| S-EPMC8507142 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEstimated life expectancy for older patients with diabetes informs decisions about treatment goals, cancer screening, long-term and advanced care, and inclusion in clinical trials. Easily implementable, evidence-based, diabetes-specific approaches for identifying patients with limited life expectancy are needed.ObjectiveDevelop and validate an electronic health record (EHR)-based tool to identify older adults with diabetes who have limited life expectancy.DesignPredictive modeling based on survival analysis using Cox-Gompertz models in a retrospective cohort.ParticipantsAdults with diabetes aged ≥ 65 years from Kaiser Permanente Northern California: a 2015 cohort (N = 121,396) with follow-up through 12/31/2019, randomly split into training (N = 97,085) and test (N = 24,311) sets. Validation was conducted in the test set and two temporally distinct cohorts: a 2010 cohort (n = 89,563; 10-year follow-up through 2019) and a 2019 cohort (n = 152,357; 2-year follow-up through 2020).Main measuresDemographics, diagnoses, utilization and procedures, medications, behaviors and vital signs; mortality.Key resultsIn the training set (mean age 75 years; 49% women; 48% racial and ethnic minorities), 23% died during 5 years follow-up. A mortality prediction model was developed using 94 candidate variables, distilled into a life expectancy model with 11 input variables, and transformed into a risk-scoring tool, the Life Expectancy Estimator for Older Adults with Diabetes (LEAD). LEAD discriminated well in the test set (C-statistic = 0.78), 2010 cohort (C-statistic = 0.74), and 2019 cohort (C-statistic = 0.81); comparisons of observed and predicted survival curves indicated good calibration.ConclusionsLEAD estimates life expectancy in older adults with diabetes based on only 11 patient characteristics widely available in most EHRs and claims data. LEAD is simple and has potential application for shared decision-making, clinical trial inclusion, and resource allocation.
| S-EPMC10228886 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVES: To estimate the health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) from diabetes mellitus (DM) using a population health survey linked to a population-based DM registry. METHODS: The 1996/97 Ontario Health Survey (N = 35,517) was linked to the Ontario Diabetes Database (N = 487,576). The Health Utilities Index (HUI3) was used to estimate health-related quality of life. HALE was estimated using an adapted Sullivan method. RESULTS: Life expectancy at birth of people with DM was 64.7 and 70.7 years for men and women - 12.8 and 12.2 years less than for men and women without DM. The HUI3 was lower for physician-diagnosed DM compared to self-reported DM (0.799 versus 0.872). HALE at birth was 58.3 and 62.8 years for men and women - 11.9 and 10.7 years less than that of men and women without DM. CONCLUSIONS: The linked data approach demonstrates that DM is an important cause of disease burden. This approach reduces assumptions when estimating the prevalence and severity of disability from DM compared to methods that rely on self-reported disease status or indirect assessment of disability severity.
| S-EPMC406424 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objective: To characterize miRNAs in 41-year archived plasma in relation to life expectancy independent of genes. Method: Plasma miRNAs from nine identical male twins were profiled using next-generation sequencing. Results: The average absolute difference in the minimum life expectancy was 9.68 years. Intra-class correlation coefficients were above 0.4 for 50% of miRNAs. Comparing deceased twins with their alive co-twin brothers, the concentrations were increased for 34 but decreased for 30 miRNAs. Conclusion: Identical twins discordant in life expectancy were unlike in the majority of miRNAs, suggesting that environmental factors are pivotal in miRNAs related to life expectancy.
2016-12-30 | GSE80730 | GEO
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To examine how a healthy lifestyle is related to life expectancy that is free from major chronic diseases. DESIGN:Prospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS:The Nurses' Health Study (1980-2014; n=73?196) and the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (1986-2014; n=38?366). MAIN EXPOSURES:Five low risk lifestyle factors: never smoking, body mass index 18.5-24.9, moderate to vigorous physical activity (?30 minutes/day), moderate alcohol intake (women: 5-15 g/day; men 5-30 g/day), and a higher diet quality score (upper 40%). MAIN OUTCOME:Life expectancy free of diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer. RESULTS:The life expectancy free of diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer at age 50 was 23.7 years (95% confidence interval 22.6 to 24.7) for women who adopted no low risk lifestyle factors, in contrast to 34.4 years (33.1 to 35.5) for women who adopted four or five low risk factors. At age 50, the life expectancy free of any of these chronic diseases was 23.5 (22.3 to 24.7) years among men who adopted no low risk lifestyle factors and 31.1 (29.5 to 32.5) years in men who adopted four or five low risk lifestyle factors. For current male smokers who smoked heavily (?15 cigarettes/day) or obese men and women (body mass index ?30), their disease-free life expectancies accounted for the lowest proportion (?75%) of total life expectancy at age 50. CONCLUSION:Adherence to a healthy lifestyle at mid-life is associated with a longer life expectancy free of major chronic diseases.
| S-EPMC7190036 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceImprovements in control of factors associated with diabetes risk in the US have stalled and remain suboptimal. The benefit of continually improving goal achievement has not been evaluated to date.ObjectiveTo quantify potential gains in life expectancy (LE) among people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) associated with lowering glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), systolic blood pressure (SBP), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and body mass index (BMI) toward optimal levels.Design, setting, and participantsIn this decision analytical model, the Building, Relating, Assessing, and Validating Outcomes (BRAVO) diabetes microsimulation model was calibrated to a nationally representative sample of adults with T2D from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2015-2016) using their linked short-term mortality data from the National Death Index. The model was then used to conduct the simulation experiment on the study population over a lifetime. Data were analyzed from January to October 2021.ExposureThe study population was grouped into quartiles on the basis of levels of HbA1c, SBP, LDL-C, and BMI. LE gains associated with achieving better control were estimated by moving people with T2D from the current quartile of each biomarker to the lower quartiles.Main outcomes and measuresLife expectancy.ResultsAmong 421 individuals, 194 (46%) were women, and the mean (SD) age was 65.6 (8.9) years. Compared with a BMI of 41.4 (mean of the fourth quartile), lower BMIs of 24.3 (first), 28.6 (second), and 33.0 (third) were associated with 3.9, 2.9, and 2.0 additional life-years, respectively, in people with T2D. Compared with an SBP of 160.4 mm Hg (fourth), lower SBP levels of 114.1 mm Hg (first), 128.2 mm Hg (second), and 139.1 mm Hg (third) were associated with 1.9, 1.5, and 1.1 years gained in LE in people with T2D, respectively. A lower LDL-C level of 59 mg/dL (first), 84.0 mg/dL (second), and 107.0 mg/dL (third) were associated with 0.9, 0.7, and 0.5 years gain in LE, compared with LDL-C of 146.2 mg/dL (fourth). Reducing HbA1c from 9.9% (fourth) to 7.7% (third) was associated with 3.4 years gain in LE. However, a further reduction to 6.8% (second) was associated with only a mean of 0.5 years gain in LE, and from 6.8% to 5.9% (first) was not associated with LE benefit. Overall, reducing HbA1c from the fourth quartile to the first is associated with an LE gain of 3.8 years.Conclusions and relevanceThese findings can be used by clinicians to motivate patients in achieving the recommended treatment goals and to help prioritize interventions and programs to improve diabetes care in the US.
| S-EPMC10292109 | biostudies-literature