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Estimated life expectancy in a Scottish cohort with type 1 diabetes, 2008-2010.

ABSTRACT: Type 1 diabetes has historically been associated with a significant reduction in life expectancy. Major advances in treatment of type 1 diabetes have occurred in the past 3 decades. Contemporary estimates of the effect of type 1 diabetes on life expectancy are needed.To examine current life expectancy in people with and without type 1 diabetes in Scotland. We also examined whether any loss of life expectancy in patients with type 1 diabetes is confined to those who develop kidney disease.Prospective cohort of all individuals alive in Scotland with type 1 diabetes who were aged 20 years or older from 2008 through 2010 and were in a nationwide register (n=24,691 contributing 67,712 person-years and 1043 deaths).Differences in life expectancy between those with and those without type 1 diabetes and the percentage of the difference due to various causes.Life expectancy at an attained age of 20 years was an additional 46.2 years among men with type 1 diabetes and 57.3 years among men without it, an estimated loss in life expectancy with diabetes of 11.1 years (95% CI, 10.1-12.1). Life expectancy from age 20 years was an additional 48.1 years among women with type 1 diabetes and 61.0 years among women without it, an estimated loss with diabetes of 12.9 years (95% CI, 11.7-14.1). Even among those with type 1 diabetes with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 or higher, life expectancy was reduced (49.0 years in men, 53.1 years in women) giving an estimated loss from age 20 years of 8.3 years (95% CI, 6.5-10.1) for men and 7.9 years (95% CI, 5.5-10.3) for women. Overall, the largest percentage of the estimated loss in life expectancy was related to ischemic heart disease (36% in men, 31% in women) but death from diabetic coma or ketoacidosis was associated with the largest percentage of the estimated loss occurring before age 50 years (29.4% in men, 21.7% in women).Estimated life expectancy for patients with type 1 diabetes in Scotland based on data from 2008 through 2010 indicated an estimated loss of life expectancy at age 20 years of approximately 11 years for men and 13 years for women compared with the general population without type 1 diabetes.

SUBMITTER: Livingstone SJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4426486 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimated life expectancy in a Scottish cohort with type 1 diabetes, 2008-2010.

Livingstone Shona J SJ Levin Daniel D Looker Helen C HC Lindsay Robert S RS Wild Sarah H SH Joss Nicola N Leese Graham G Leslie Peter P McCrimmon Rory J RJ Metcalfe Wendy W McKnight John A JA Morris Andrew D AD Pearson Donald W M DW Petrie John R JR Philip Sam S Sattar Naveed A NA Traynor Jamie P JP Colhoun Helen M HM

JAMA 20150101 1

<h4>Importance</h4>Type 1 diabetes has historically been associated with a significant reduction in life expectancy. Major advances in treatment of type 1 diabetes have occurred in the past 3 decades. Contemporary estimates of the effect of type 1 diabetes on life expectancy are needed.<h4>Objective</h4>To examine current life expectancy in people with and without type 1 diabetes in Scotland. We also examined whether any loss of life expectancy in patients with type 1 diabetes is confined to tho ...[more]

PMID: 25562264

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Project description:Aims/hypothesisTables reporting life expectancies by common risk factors are available for individuals with type 2 diabetes; however, there is currently no published equivalent for individuals with type 1 diabetes. We aimed to develop a life expectancy table using a recently published simulation model for individuals with type 1 diabetes.MethodsThe simulation model was developed using data from a real-world population of patients with type 1 diabetes selected from the Swedish National Diabetes Register. The following six important risk factors were included in the life table: sex; age; current smoking status; BMI; eGFR; and HbA1c. For each of 1024 cells in the life expectancy table, a synthetic cohort containing 1000 individuals was created, with other risk factors assigned values representative of the real-world population. The simulations were executed for all synthetic cohorts and life expectancy for each cell was calculated as mean survival time of the individuals in the respective cohort.ResultsThere was a substantial variation in life expectancy across patients with different risk factor levels. Life expectancy of 20-year-old men varied from 29.3 years to 50.6 years, constituting a gap of 21.3 years between those with worst and best risk factor levels. In 20-year-old women, this gap was 18.9 years (life expectancy range 35.0-53.9 years). The variation in life expectancy was a function of the combination of risk factor values, with HbA1c and eGFR consistently showing a negative and positive correlation, respectively, with life expectancy at any level combination of other risk factors. Individuals with the lowest level (20 kg/m2) and highest level of BMI (35 kg/m2) had a lower life expectancy compared with those with a BMI of 25 kg/m2. Non-smokers and women had a higher life expectancy than smokers and men, respectively, with the difference in life expectancy ranging from 0.4 years to 2.7 years between non-smokers and smokers, and from 1.9 years to 5.9 years between women and men, depending on levels of other risk factors.Conclusions/interpretationThe life expectancy table generated in this study shows a substantial variation in life expectancy across individuals with different modifiable risk factors. The table allows for rapid communications of risk in an easily understood format between healthcare professionals, health economists, researchers, policy makers and patients. Particularly, it supports clinicians in their discussion with patients about the benefits of improving risk factors.

Project description:BackgroundType 2 diabetes (T2D) causes substantial disease burden and is projected to affect an increasing number of people in coming decades. This study provides projected estimates of life years free of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and years of life lost ([Formula: see text]) associated with T2D for Germany in the years 2015 and 2040.MethodsBased on an illness-death model and the associated mathematical relation between prevalence, incidence and mortality, we projected the prevalence of diagnosed T2D using currently available data on the incidence rate of diagnosed T2D and mortality rates of people with and without diagnosed T2D. Projection of prevalence was achieved by integration of a partial differential equation, which governs the illness-death model. These projected parameters were used as input values to calculate life years free of T2D and [Formula: see text] associated with T2D for the German population aged 40 to 100 years in the years 2015 and 2040, while accounting for different assumptions on future trends in T2D incidence and mortality.ResultsAssuming a constant incidence rate, women and men at age 40 years in 2015 will live approximately 38 years and 33 years free of T2D, respectively. Up to the year 2040, these numbers are projected to increase by 1.0 years and 1.3 years. Assuming a decrease in T2D-associated excess mortality of 2% per year, women and men aged 40 years with T2D in 2015 will be expected to lose 1.6 and 2.7 years of life, respectively, compared to a same aged person without T2D. In 2040, these numbers would reduce by approximately 0.9 years and 1.6 years. This translates to 10.8 million and 6.4 million [Formula: see text] in the German population aged 40-100 years with prevalent T2D in 2015 and 2040, respectively.ConclusionsGiven expected trends in mortality and no increase in T2D incidence, the burden due to premature mortality associated with T2D will decrease on the individual as well as on the population level. In addition, the expected lifetime without T2D is likely to increase. However, these trends strongly depend on future improvements of excess mortality associated with T2D and future incidence of T2D, which should motivate increased efforts of primary and tertiary prevention.

Project description:Objective To quantify the impact of cancer (all cancers combined and major sites) compared with cardiovascular disease (CVD) on longevity worldwide during 1981-2010.Design Retrospective demographic analysis using aggregated data.Setting National civil registration systems in member states of the World Health Organization.Participants 52 populations with moderate to high quality data on cause specific mortality.Main outcome measures Disease specific contributions to changes in life expectancy in ages 40-84 (LE40-84) over time in populations grouped by two levels of Human Development Index (HDI) values.Results Declining CVD mortality rates during 1981-2010 contributed to, on average, over half of the gains in LE40-84; the corresponding gains were 2.3 (men) and 1.7 (women) years, and 0.5 (men) and 0.8 (women) years in very high and medium and high HDI populations, respectively. Declines in cancer mortality rates contributed to, on average, 20% of the gains in LE40-84, or 0.8 (men) and 0.5 (women) years in very high HDI populations, and to over 10% or 0.2 years (both sexes) in medium and high HDI populations. Declining lung cancer mortality rates brought about the largest LE40-84 gain in men in very high HDI populations (up to 0.7 years in the Netherlands), whereas in medium and high HDI populations its contribution was smaller yet still positive. Among women, declines in breast cancer mortality rates were largely responsible for the improvement in longevity, particularly among very high HDI populations (up to 0.3 years in the United Kingdom). In contrast, losses in LE40-84 were observed in many medium and high HDI populations as a result of increasing breast cancer mortality rates.Conclusions The control of CVD has led to substantial gains in LE40-84 worldwide. The inequality in improvement in longevity attributed to declining cancer mortality rates reflects inequities in implementation of cancer control, particularly in less resourced populations and in women. Global actions are needed to revitalize efforts for cancer control, with a specific focus on less resourced countries.

Project description:PurposeThe Scottish Diabetes Research Network (SDRN)-diabetes research platform was established to combine disparate electronic health record data into research-ready linked datasets for diabetes research in Scotland. The resultant cohort, 'The SDRN-National Diabetes Dataset (SDRN-NDS)', has many uses, for example, understanding healthcare burden and socioeconomic trends in disease incidence and prevalence, observational pharmacoepidemiology studies and building prediction tools to support clinical decision making.ParticipantsWe estimate that >99% of those diagnosed with diabetes nationwide are captured into the research platform. Between 2006 and mid-2020, the cohort comprised 472 648 people alive with diabetes at any point in whom there were 4 million person-years of follow-up. Of the cohort, 88.1% had type 2 diabetes, 8.8% type 1 diabetes and 3.1% had other types (eg, secondary diabetes). Data are captured from all key clinical encounters for diabetes-related care, including diabetes clinic, primary care and podiatry and comprise clinical history and measurements with linkage to blood results, microbiology, prescribed and dispensed drug and devices, retinopathy screening, outpatient, day case and inpatient episodes, birth outcomes, cancer registry, renal registry and causes of death.Findings to dateThere have been >50 publications using the SDRN-NDS. Examples of recent key findings include analysis of the incidence and relative risks for COVID-19 infection, drug safety of insulin glargine and SGLT2 inhibitors, life expectancy estimates, evaluation of the impact of flash monitors on glycaemic control and diabetic ketoacidosis and time trend analysis showing that diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) remains a major cause of death under age 50 years. The findings have been used to guide national diabetes strategy and influence national and international guidelines.Future plansThe comprehensive SDRN-NDS will continue to be used in future studies of diabetes epidemiology in the Scottish population. It will continue to be updated at least annually, with new data sources linked as they become available.

Project description:BackgroundThere are few data on life expectancy gains among people living with HIV in low-income and middle-income settings where antiretroviral therapy (ART) is increasingly available. We aimed to analyse life expectancy trends from 2003 to 2017 among people with HIV beginning treatment with ART within the Caribbean, central America, and South America.MethodsWe did a multisite retrospective cohort study and included people with HIV who had started treatment with ART and were aged 16 years or older between Jan 1, 2003, and Dec 31, 2017, from Caribbean, Central and South America network for HIV epidemiology (CCASAnet) sites in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, and Peru, who contributed person-time data from the age of 20 years until date of death, last contact, database closure, or Dec 31, 2017. We used the Chiang method of abridged life tables to estimate life expectancy at age 20 years for three eras (2003-08, 2009-12, and 2013-17) overall and by demographic and clinical characteristics at ART initiation. We used Poisson regression models to weight mortality rates to account for informative censoring.Findings30 688 people with HIV were included in the study; 17 491 (57·0%) were from the Haiti site and 13 197 (43·0%) were from all other sites. There were 2637 deaths during the study period: 1470 in Haiti and 1167 in other sites. Crude and weighted mortality rates decreased among all age groups over calendar eras. From 2003-08 to 2013-17, overall life expectancy for people with HIV at age 20 years increased from 13·9 years (95% CI 12·5-15·2) to 61·2 years (59·0-63·4) in Haiti and from 31·0 years (29·3-32·8) to 69·5 years (67·2-71·8) in other sites. Life expectancies at the end of the study period were within 10 years of those of the general population (69·9 years in Haiti and 78·0 years in all other sites in 2018). Disparities in life expectancy among people with HIV by sex or HIV transmission risk factor, CD4 cell count, level of education, and history of tuberculosis at or before ART initiation persisted across calendar eras.InterpretationLife expectancy among people with HIV receiving ART has significantly improved in Latin America and the Caribbean. Persistent disparities in life expectancy among people with HIV by demographic and clinical factors at ART initiation highlight vulnerable populations in the region.FundingNational Institutes of Health.TranslationFor the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Dataset Information

Estimated life expectancy in a Scottish cohort with type 1 diabetes, 2008-2010.

Publications

Estimated life expectancy in a Scottish cohort with type 1 diabetes, 2008-2010.

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