Male circumcision for HIV prevention in high HIV prevalence settings: what can mathematical modelling contribute to informed decision making?
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: UNAIDS/WHO/SACEMA Expert Group on Modelling the Impact and Cost of Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention
PROVIDER: S-EPMC2731851 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Sep
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Male circumcision for HIV prevention in high HIV prevalence settings: what can mathematical modelling contribute to informed decision making?
PLoS medicine 20090908 9
Experts from UNAIDS, WHO, and the South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling report their review of mathematical models estimating the impact of male circumcision on HIV incidence in high HIV prevalence settings. ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:BackgroundThe epidemiological and programmatic implications of inclusivity of HIV-positive males in voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs are uncertain. We modeled these implications using Zambia as an illustrative example.Methods and findingsWe used the Age-Structured Mathematical (ASM) model to evaluate, over an intermediate horizon (2010-2025), the effectiveness (number of VMMCs needed to avert one HIV infection) of VMMC scale-up scenarios with varying proportions of HIV-positive males. The model was calibrated by fitting to HIV prevalence time trend data from 1990 to 2014. We assumed that inclusivity of HIV positive males may benefit VMMC programs by increasing VMMC uptake among higher risk males, or by circumcision reducing HIV male-to-female transmission risk. All analyses were generated assuming no further antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up. The number of VMMCs needed to avert one HIV infection was projected to increase from 12.2 VMMCs per HIV infection averted, in a program that circumcises only HIV-negative males, to 14.0, in a program that includes HIV-positive males. The proportion of HIV-positive males was based on their representation in the population (e.g. 12.6% of those circumcised in 2010 would be HIV-positive based on HIV prevalence among males of 12.6% in 2010). However, if a program that only reaches out to HIV-negative males is associated with 20% lower uptake among higher-risk males, the effectiveness would be 13.2 VMMCs per infection averted. If improved inclusivity of HIV-positive males is associated with 20% higher uptake among higher-risk males, the effectiveness would be 12.4. As the assumed VMMC efficacy against male-to-female HIV transmission was increased from 0% to 20% and 46%, the effectiveness of circumcising regardless of HIV status improved from 14.0 to 11.5 and 9.1, respectively. The reduction in the HIV incidence rate among females increased accordingly, from 24.7% to 34.8% and 50.4%, respectively.ConclusionImproving inclusivity of males in VMMC programs regardless of HIV status increases VMMC effectiveness, if there is moderate increase in VMMC uptake among higher-risk males and/or if there is moderate efficacy for VMMC against male-to-female transmission. In these circumstances, VMMC programs can reduce the HIV incidence rate in males by nearly as much as expected by some ART programs, and additionally, females can benefit from the intervention nearly as much as males.
| S-EPMC5261810 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Voluntary Medical Male circumcision (VMMC) has been part of prevention in Namibia since 2009. Yet, as of 2013, VMMC coverage among 15- to 24-year-olds was estimated at less than 22%. Program data suggests uptake of VMMC below age 15 is lower than expected, given the age distribution of the eligible population. Nearly 85% of VMMCs were for males between ages 15 and 29, while boys 10-14 years were referred outside the program. This analysis uses the Decision Makers Program Planning Tool to understand the impact of age prioritization on circumcision in Namibia. Results indicate that circumcising males aged 20-29 reduced HIV incidence most rapidly, while focusing on ages 15-24 was more cost effective and produced greater magnitude of impact. Providing services to those under 15 could increase VMMC volume 67% while introducing Early Infant Medical Circumcision could expand coverage. This exercise supported a review of VMMC strategies and implementation, with Namibia increasing coverage among 10- to 14-year-olds nearly 20 times from 2016 to 2017.
| S-EPMC6773676 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: age structured mathematical models have been used to evaluate the impact of rubella-containing vaccine (RCV) introduction into existing measles vaccination programs in several countries. South Africa has a well-established measles vaccination program and is considering RCV introduction. This study aimed to provide a comparison of different scenarios and their relative costs within the context of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) reduction or elimination. Methods: we used a previously published age-structured deterministic discrete time rubella transmission model. We obtained estimates of vaccine costs from the South African medicines price registry and the World Health Organization. We simulated RCV introduction and extracted estimates of rubella incidence, CRS incidence and effective reproductive number over 30 years. Results: compared to scenarios without mass campaigns, scenarios including mass campaigns resulted in more rapid elimination of rubella and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). Routine vaccination at 12 months of age coupled with vaccination of nine-year-old children was associated with the lowest RCV cost per CRS case averted for a similar percentage CRS reduction. Conclusion: At 80% RCV coverage, all vaccine introduction scenarios would achieve rubella and CRS elimination in South Africa. Any RCV introduction strategy should consider a combination of routine vaccination in the primary immunization series and additional vaccination of older children.
| S-EPMC7565203 | biostudies-literature
Project description:As countries approach their scale-up targets for the voluntary medical male circumcision program for HIV prevention, they are strategizing and planning for the sustainability phase to follow. Global guidance recommends circumcising adolescent (below 14 years) and/or early infant boys (aged 0-60 days), and countries need to consider several factors before prioritizing a cohort for their sustainability phase. We provide community and healthcare provider-side insights on attitudes and decision-making process as a key input for this strategic decision in Zambia and Zimbabwe. We studied expectant parents, parents of infant boys (aged 0-60 days), family members and neo-natal and ante-natal healthcare providers in Zambia and Zimbabwe. Our integrated methodology consisted of in-depth qualitative and quantitative one-on-one interviews, and a simulated-decision-making game, to uncover attitudes towards, and the decision-making process for, early adolescent or early infant medical circumcision (EAMC or EIMC). In both countries, parents viewed early infancy and early adolescence as equally ideal ages for circumcision (38% EIMC vs. 37% EAMC in Zambia; 24% vs. 27% in Zimbabwe). If offered for free, about half of Zambian parents and almost 2 in 5 Zimbabwean parents indicated they would likely circumcise their infant boy; however, half of parents in each country perceived that the community would not accept EIMC. Nurses believed their facilities currently could not absorb EIMC services and that they would have limited ability to influence fathers, who were seen as having the primary decision-making authority. Our analysis suggests that EAMC is more accepted by the community than EIMC and is the path of least resistance for the sustainability phase of VMMC. However, parents or community members do not reject EIMC. Should countries choose to prioritize this cohort for their sustainability phase, a number of barriers around information, decision-making by parents, and supply side will need to be addressed.
| S-EPMC5531536 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundRecent clinical trials in Africa, in combination with several observational epidemiological studies, have provided evidence that male circumcision can reduce HIV female-to-male transmission risk by 60% or more. However, the public health impact of large-scale male circumcision programs for HIV prevention is unclear.MethodsTwo mathematical models were examined to explore this issue: a random mixing model and a compartmental model that distinguishes risk groups associated with sex work. In the compartmental model, two scenarios were developed, one calculating HIV transmission and prevalence in a context similar to the country of Botswana, and one similar to Nyanza Province, in western Kenya.ResultsIn both models, male circumcision programs resulted in large and sustained declines in HIV prevalence over time among both men and women. Men benefited somewhat more than women, but prevalence among women was also reduced substantially. With 80% male circumcision uptake, the reductions in prevalence ranged from 45% to 67% in the two "countries", and with 50% uptake, from 25% to 41%. It would take over a decade for the intervention to reach its full effect.ConclusionLarge-scale uptake of male circumcision services in African countries with high HIV prevalence, and where male circumcision is not now routinely practised, could lead to substantial reductions in HIV transmission and prevalence over time among both men and women.
| S-EPMC1832203 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Abstract The depths of the impact of COVID‐19 on nearly every aspect of our personal and professional lives was becoming painfully clear in May and June of 2020. While institutions of higher education had implemented crisis/emergency plans in the immediate onset of the pandemic, and largely extended those efforts into summer terms, the fall 2020 term loomed large. Institutional researchers were asked for myriad kinds of data and reports, ostensibly to inform executive leaders’ decision‐making regarding how to operate for the fall term. On its face, this fits with the current conceptualization of IR's work largely as decision support. Despite these requests, however, the question remains as to what was really driving decision‐making about the fall. This research examined a random, representative sample of public statements regarding fall operations, often released in the name of a president or chancellor, to determine what factors these leaders espoused publicly as informing their fall plans.
| S-EPMC8652806 | biostudies-literature
Project description:South Africa has the highest tuberculosis (TB) disease incidence rate in the world, and TB is the leading infectious cause of death. Decisions on, and funding for, TB prevention and care policies are decentralised to the provincial governments and therefore, tools to inform policy need to operate at this level. We describe the use of a mathematical model planning tool at provincial level in a high HIV and TB burden country, to estimate the impact on TB burden of achieving the 90-(90)-90 targets of the Stop TB Partnership Global Plan to End TB. "TIME Impact" is a freely available, user-friendly TB modelling tool. In collaboration with provincial TB programme staff, and the South African National TB Programme, models for three (of nine) provinces were calibrated to TB notifications, incidence, and screening data. Reported levels of TB programme activities were used as baseline inputs into the models, which were used to estimate the impact of scale-up of interventions focusing on screening, linkage to care and treatment success. All baseline models predicted a trend of decreasing TB incidence and mortality, consistent with recent data from South Africa. The projected impacts of the interventions differed by province and were greatly influenced by assumed current coverage levels. The absence of provincial TB burden estimates and uncertainty in current activity coverage levels were key data gaps. A user-friendly modelling tool allows TB burden and intervention impact projection at the sub-national level. Key sub-national data gaps should be addressed to improve the quality of sub-national model predictions.
| S-EPMC6347133 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHealth insurance enrollment is a difficult financial decision with large health impacts. Challenges such as low health insurance literacy and lack of knowledge about choosing a plan further complicate this decision-making process. Therefore, to support consumers in their choice of a health insurance plan, it is essential to understand how individuals go about making this decision.ObjectiveThis study aims to understand the sources of information used by individuals to support their employer-provided health insurance enrollment decisions. It seeks to describe how individual descriptive factors lead to choosing a particular type of information source.MethodsAn introduction was presented on health insurance plan selection and the sources of information used to support these decisions from the 1980s to the present. Subsequently, an electronic survey of 151 full-time faculty and staff members was conducted. The survey consisted of four sections: demographics, sources of information, health insurance literacy, and technology acceptance. Descriptive statistics were used to show the demographic characteristics of the 126 eligible respondents and to study the response behaviors in the remaining survey sections. Proportion data analysis was performed using the Cochran-Armitage trend test to understand the strength of the association between our variables and the types of sources used by the respondents.ResultsIn terms of demographics, most of the respondents were women (103/126, 81.7%), represented a small household (1-2 persons; 87/126, 69%), and used their insurance 3-12 times a year (52/126, 41.3%). They assessed themselves as having moderate to high health insurance literacy and high acceptance of technology. The most selected and top-ranked sources were Official employer or state websites and Official Human Resources Virtual Benefits Counselor Alex. From our data analysis, we found that the use of official primary sources was constant across age groups and health insurance use groups. Meanwhile, the use of friends or family as a primary source slightly decreased as age and use increased.ConclusionsIn this exploratory study, we identified the main sources of health insurance information among full-time employees from a large state university and found that most of the respondents needed 2-3 sources to gather all the information that they desired. We also studied and identified the relationships between individual factors (such as age, gender, and literacy) and 2 dependent variables on the types of primary sources of information. We encountered several limitations, which will be addressed in future studies.
| S-EPMC8391737 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPublic health professionals are increasingly expected to engage in evidence-informed decision making to inform practice and policy decisions. Evidence-informed decision making involves the use of research evidence along with expertise, existing public health resources, knowledge about community health issues, the local context and community, and the political climate. The National Collaborating Centre for Methods and Tools has identified a seven step process for evidence-informed decision making. Tools have been developed to support public health professionals as they work through each of these steps. This paper provides an overview of tools used in three Canadian public health departments involved in a study to develop capacity for evidence-informed decision making.MethodsAs part of a knowledge translation and exchange intervention, a Knowledge Broker worked with public health professionals to identify and apply tools for use with each of the steps of evidence-informed decision making. The Knowledge Broker maintained a reflective journal and interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of decision makers and public health professionals. This paper presents qualitative analysis of the perceived usefulness and usability of the tools.ResultsTools were used in the health departments to assist in: question identification and clarification; searching for the best available research evidence; assessing the research evidence for quality through critical appraisal; deciphering the 'actionable message(s)' from the research evidence; tailoring messages to the local context to ensure their relevance and suitability; deciding whether and planning how to implement research evidence in the local context; and evaluating the effectiveness of implementation efforts. Decision makers provided descriptions of how the tools were used within the health departments and made suggestions for improvement. Overall, the tools were perceived as valuable for advancing and sustaining evidence-informed decision making.ConclusionTools are available to support the process of evidence-informed decision making among public health professionals. The usability and usefulness of these tools for advancing and sustaining evidence-informed decision making are discussed, including recommendations for the tools' application in other public health settings beyond this study. Knowledge and awareness of these tools may assist other health professionals in their efforts to implement evidence-informed practice.
| S-EPMC4223550 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCareful patient-clinician shared decision-making about dialysis initiation has been promoted, but few studies have addressed patient perspectives on the extent of information provided and how decisions to start dialysis are made.MethodsNinety-nine maintenance dialysis patients recruited from 15 outpatient dialysis centers in North Carolina completed semistructured interviews on information provision and communication about the initiation of dialysis. These data were examined with content analysis. In addition, informed decision-making (IDM) scores were created by summing patient responses (yes/no) to 10 questions about the decision-making.ResultsThe mean IDM score was 4.4 (of 10; SD = 2.0); 67% scored 5 or lower. Age at the time of decision-making (r = -0.27, P = 0.006), years of education (r = 0.24, P = 0.02) and presence of a warning about progressing to end-stage kidney disease (t = 2.9, P = 0.005) were significantly associated with IDM scores. Nearly 70% said that the risks and burdens of dialysis were not mentioned at all, and only one patient recalled that the doctor offered the option of not starting dialysis. While a majority (67%) said that they felt they had no choice about starting dialysis (because the alternative would be death) or about dialysis modality, only 21.2% said that they had felt rushed to make a decision. About one-third of the patients perceived that the decision to start dialysis and modality was already made by the doctor.ConclusionsA majority of patients felt unprepared and ill-informed about the initiation of dialysis. Improving the extent of IDM about dialysis may optimize patient preparation prior to starting treatment and their perceptions about the decision-making process.
| S-EPMC3811056 | biostudies-literature