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Cardiorespiratory risk factors as predictors of 40-year mortality in women and men.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:Most historical studies of cardiorespiratory risk factors as predictors of mortality have been based on men. This study examines whether they predict mortality over long periods in women and men. DESIGN:Prospective cohort study. SETTING:Participants were employees of the General Post Office. METHODS:Risk factor data were collected via clinical examination and questionnaire, 1966-7. Associations between cardiorespiratory risk factors and 40-year mortality were determined for 644 women and 1272 men aged 35-70 at examination. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:All-cause, cardiovascular (CVD), cancer and respiratory mortality. RESULTS:Associations between systolic blood pressure and all-cause and stroke mortality were equally strong for women and men, hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) 1.25 (1.1 to 1.4) and 1.18 (1.1 to 1.3); and 2.17 (1.7 to 2.8) and 1.69 (1.4 to 2.1), respectively. Cholesterol was higher in women and was associated with all-cause 1.22 (1.1 to 1.4) and CVD 1.39 (1.2 to 1.7) mortality, while associations between 2-hour glucose and all-cause 1.15 (1.1 to 1.2), coronary heart disease (CHD) 1.25 (1.1 to 1.4) and respiratory mortality 1.21 (1.0 to 1.5) were observed in men. Obesity was associated with stroke in women (2.42 (1.12 to 5.24)) and CHD in men (1.59 (1.02 to 2.49)), while ECG ischaemia was associated with CVD in both sexes. The strongest, most consistent predictor of mortality was smoking in women and poor lung function in men. However, evidence of sex differences in associations between the cardiorespiratory risk factors measured and mortality was sparse. CONCLUSIONS:Data from a 40-year follow-up period show remarkably persistent associations between risk factors and cardiorespiratory and all-cause mortality in women and men.

SUBMITTER: Ferrie JE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2746941 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Cardiorespiratory risk factors as predictors of 40-year mortality in women and men.

Ferrie J E JE Singh-Manoux A A Kivimäki M M Mindell J J Breeze E E Smith G Davey GD Shipley M J MJ

Heart (British Cardiac Society) 20090422 15

<h4>Objective</h4>Most historical studies of cardiorespiratory risk factors as predictors of mortality have been based on men. This study examines whether they predict mortality over long periods in women and men.<h4>Design</h4>Prospective cohort study.<h4>Setting</h4>Participants were employees of the General Post Office.<h4>Methods</h4>Risk factor data were collected via clinical examination and questionnaire, 1966-7. Associations between cardiorespiratory risk factors and 40-year mortality we ...[more]

PMID: 19389720

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Project description:Background and aimsA strong cardiorespiratory fitness is suggested to have beneficial effects on cardiovascular risk; the exact mechanisms underlying the cardioprotective effects of fitness remain uncertain. Our aim was to investigate associations between cardiorespiratory fitness and multiple plasma proteins, in order to obtain insights about physiological pathways associated with the effects of exercise on cardiovascular health.MethodsIn the Prospective investigation of Obesity, Energy and Metabolism (POEM) study (n=444 adults aged 50 years, 50% women), cardiorespiratory fitness was measured by a maximal exercise test on bicycle ergometer with gas exchange (VO2peak) normalized for body lean mass (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)). We measured 82 cardiovascular proteins associated with cardiovascular pathology and inflammation in plasma samples with a proximity extension assay.ResultsIn sex-adjusted linear regression, VO2peak was associated with 18 proteins after Bonferroni correction for multiple testing (p<0.0006). Following additional adjustment for fat mass (DXA), fasting glucose (mmol/L), low-density lipoprotein (LDL, mmol/L), smoking status, waist/hip ratio, blood pressure (mmHg), education level, and lpnr (lab sequence number), higher VO2peak was significantly associated with lower levels of 6 proteins: fatty-acid binding protein-4 (FABP4), interleukin-6 (IL-6), leptin, cystatin-B (CSTB), interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1RA), and growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), and higher levels of 3 proteins: galanin, kallikrein-6 (KLK6), and heparin-binding EGF-like growth factor (HB-EGF), at nominal p-values (p<0.05).ConclusionsWe identified multiple novel associations between cardiorespiratory fitness and plasma proteins involved in several atherosclerotic processes and key cellular mechanisms such as inflammation, energy homeostasis, and protease activity, which shed new light on how exercise asserts its beneficial effects on cardiovascular health. Our findings encourage additional studies in order to understand the underlying causal mechanisms for these associations.

Project description:Advancing age, female sex, recent prior fracture and falls, and specific comorbidities and medications contribute to imminent (within 1-2 years) risk of fracture in Medicare enrollees. Clinician awareness of these risk factors and their dynamic nature may lead to improved osteoporosis care for elderly patients.PurposeThe burden of osteoporotic fracture disproportionately affects the elderly. Growing awareness that fracture risk can change substantially over time underscores the need to understand risk factors for imminent (within 1-2 years) fracture. This study assessed predictors of imminent risk of fracture in the US Medicare population.MethodsAdministrative claims data from a random sample of Medicare beneficiaries were analyzed for patients aged ≥ 67 years on January 1, 2011 (index date), with continuous coverage between January 1, 2009 and March 31, 2011, excluding patients with non-melanoma cancer or Paget's disease. Incident osteoporotic fractures were identified during 12 and 24 months post-index. Potential predictors were age, sex, race, history of fracture, history of falls, presence of osteoporosis, cardiovascular diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD), mood/anxiety disorders, polyinflammatory conditions, difficulty walking, use of durable medical equipment, ambulance/life support, and pre-index use of osteoporosis medications, steroids, or central nervous system medications. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate predictors of fracture risk in the two follow-up intervals.ResultsAmong 1,780,451 individuals included (mean age 77.7 years, 66% female), 8.3% had prior fracture and 6.1% had a history of falls. During the 12- and 24-month follow-up periods, 3.0% and 5.4% of patients had an incident osteoporotic fracture, respectively. Imminent risk of fracture increased with older age (double/triple), female sex (> 80%), recent prior fracture (> double) and falls, and specific comorbidities and medications.ConclusionsDemographics and factors including fall/fracture history, comorbidities, and medications contribute to imminent risk of fracture in elderly patients.

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Cardiorespiratory risk factors as predictors of 40-year mortality in women and men.

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Cardiorespiratory risk factors as predictors of 40-year mortality in women and men.

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