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Heterogeneity in host HIV susceptibility as a potential contributor to recent HIV prevalence declines in Africa.

ABSTRACT: HIV prevalence has recently declined in several African countries, and prior to this the risk of HIV acquisition per unprotected sex contact also declined in Kenyan sex workers. We hypothesized that heterogeneity in HIV host susceptibility might underpin both of these observations.A compartmental mathematical model was used to explore the potential impact of heterogeneity in susceptibility to HIV infection on epidemic behavior, in the absence of other causative mechanisms.Studies indicated that a substantial heterogeneity in susceptibility to HIV infection may lead to an epidemic that peaks and then declines due to a depletion of the most susceptible individuals, even without changes in sexual behavior. This effect was most notable in high-risk groups such as female sex workers and was consistent with empirical data.Declines in HIV prevalence may have other causes in addition to behavior change, including heterogeneity in host HIV susceptibility. There is a need to further study this heterogeneity and its correlates, particularly as it confounds the ability to attribute HIV epidemic shifts to specific interventions, including behavior change.

SUBMITTER: Nagelkerke N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2764323 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Heterogeneity in host HIV susceptibility as a potential contributor to recent HIV prevalence declines in Africa.

Nagelkerke Nico N de Vlas Sake J SJ Jha Prabhat P Luo Ma M Plummer Francis A FA Kaul Rupert R

AIDS (London, England) 20090101 1

<h4>Background</h4>HIV prevalence has recently declined in several African countries, and prior to this the risk of HIV acquisition per unprotected sex contact also declined in Kenyan sex workers. We hypothesized that heterogeneity in HIV host susceptibility might underpin both of these observations.<h4>Methods</h4>A compartmental mathematical model was used to explore the potential impact of heterogeneity in susceptibility to HIV infection on epidemic behavior, in the absence of other causative ...[more]

PMID: 19050394

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Project description:ObjectivesNational population-wide HIV prevalence and incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are indirectly estimated using HIV prevalence measured among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANC), among other data. We evaluated whether recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women are representative of general population trends.DesignSerial population-based household surveys in 13 SSA countries.MethodsWe calculated HIV prevalence trends among all women aged 15-49 years and currently pregnant women between surveys conducted from 2003 to 2008 (period 1) and 2009 to 2012 (period 2). Log-binomial regression was used to test for a difference in prevalence trend between the two groups. Prevalence among pregnant women was age-standardized to represent the age distribution of all women.ResultsPooling data for all countries, HIV prevalence declined among pregnant women from 6.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.3-7.9%] to 5.3% (95% CI 4.2-6.6%) between periods 1 and 2, whereas it remained unchanged among all women at 8.4% (95% CI 8.0-8.9%) in period 1 and 8.3% (95% CI 7.9-8.8%) in period 2. Prevalence declined by 18% (95% CI -9-38%) more in pregnant women than nonpregnant women. Estimates were similar in Western, Eastern, and Southern regions of SSA; none were statistically significant (P>0.05). HIV prevalence decreased significantly among women aged 15-24 years while increasing significantly among women 35-49 years, who represented 29% of women but only 15% of pregnant women. Age-standardization of prevalence in pregnant women did not reconcile the discrepant trends because at older ages prevalence was lower among pregnant women than nonpregnant women.ConclusionAs HIV prevalence in SSA has shifted toward older, less-fertile women, HIV prevalence among pregnant women has declined more rapidly than prevalence in women overall. Interpretation of ANC prevalence data to inform national HIV estimates should account for both age-specific fertility patterns and HIV-related sub-fertility.

Project description:ObjectiveCandida kefyr causes invasive candidiasis in immunocompromised patients, particularly among those with oncohematological diseases. This study determined the prevalence of C. kefyr among yeast isolates collected during 2011-2018 in Kuwait. Antifungal susceptibility testing (AST) and genotypic heterogeneity among C. kefyr was also studied.MethodsClinical C. kefyr isolates recovered from bloodstream and other specimens during 2011 to 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. All C. kefyr isolates were identified by CHROMagar Candida, Vitek2 and PCR amplification of rDNA. AST was performed by Etest. Molecular basis of resistance to fluconazole and echinocandins was studied by PCR-sequencing of ERG11 and FKS1, respectively. Genotypic heterogeneity was determined with microsatellite-/minisatellite-based primers and for 27 selected isolates by PCR-sequencing of IGS1 region of rDNA.ResultsAmong 8257 yeast strains, 69 C. kefyr (including four bloodstream) isolates were detected by phenotypic and molecular methods. Isolation from urine and respiratory samples from female and male patients was significantly different (P = 0.001). Four isolates showed reduced susceptibility to amphotericin B and one isolate to all (amphotericin B, fluconazole, voriconazole and caspofungin/micafungin) antifungals tested. Fluconazole-resistant isolate contained only synonymous mutations in ERG11. Echinocandin-resistant isolate contained wild-type hotspot-1 and hotspot-2 of FKS1. Fingerprinting with microsatellite-/minisatellite-based primers identified only three types. IGS1 sequencing identified seven haplotypes among 27 selected isolates.ConclusionsThe overall prevalence of C. kefyr among clinical yeast isolates and among candidemia cases was recorded as 0.83% and 0.32%, respectively. The frequency of isolation of C. kefyr from bloodstream and other invasive samples was stable during the study period. The C. kefyr isolates grown from invasive (bloodstream, bronchoalveolar lavage, abdominal drain fluid, peritonial fluid and gastric fluid) samples and amphotericin B-resistant isolates were genotypically heterogeneous strains.

Dataset Information

Heterogeneity in host HIV susceptibility as a potential contributor to recent HIV prevalence declines in Africa.

Publications

Heterogeneity in host HIV susceptibility as a potential contributor to recent HIV prevalence declines in Africa.

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