Dataset Information

Recent changes in breast cancer incidence in Spain, 1980-2004.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Since the 1980s, Spain experienced two decades of sharply increasing breast cancer incidence. Declines in breast cancer incidence have recently been reported in many developed countries. We examined whether a similar downturn might have taken place in Spain in recent years.

Methods

Cases of invasive female breast cancer were drawn from all population-based Spanish cancer registries that had at least 10 years of uninterrupted registration over the period 1980-2004. Overall and age-specific changes in incidence rates were evaluated using change-point Poisson models, which allow for accurate detection and estimation of trend changes. All statistical tests were two-sided.

Results

A total of 80,453 incident cases of invasive breast cancer were identified. Overall age- and registry-adjusted incidence rates rose by 2.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.7% to 3.1%) annually during the 1980s and 1990s; there was a statistically significant change in this trend in 2001 (95% CI = 1998 to 2004; P value for the existence of a change point <.001), after which incidence declined annually by 3.0% (95% CI = 1.8% to 4.1%). This trend differed by age group: There was a steady increase in incidence for women younger than 45 years, an abrupt downturn in 2001 for women aged 45-64 years, and a gradual leveling off in 1995 for women aged 65 years or older. Separate analyses for registries that had at least 15 years of uninterrupted registration detected a statistically significant interruption of the previous upward trend in breast cancer incidence in provinces that had aggressive breast cancer screening programs and high screening participation rates, including Navarra (change point = 1991, P < .001), Granada (change point = 2002, P = .003), Bizkaia (change point = 1998, P < .001), Gipuzkoa (change point = 1998, P = .001), and Araba (change point = 1997, P = .002).

Conclusions

The recent downturn in breast cancer incidence among Spanish women older than 45 years is best explained by a period effect linked to screening saturation.

SUBMITTER: Pollan M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2778670 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Recent changes in breast cancer incidence in Spain, 1980-2004.

Pollán Marina M Pastor-Barriuso Roberto R Ardanaz Eva E Argüelles Marcial M Martos Carmen C Galcerán Jaume J Sánchez-Pérez María-José MJ Chirlaque María-Dolores MD Larrañaga Nerea N Martínez-Cobo Ruth R Tobalina María-Cres MC Vidal Enrique E Marcos-Gragera Rafael R Mateos Antonio A Garau Isabel I Rojas-Martín María-Dolores MD Jiménez Rosario R Torrella-Ramos Ana A Perucha Josefina J Pérez-de-Rada Maria-Eugenia ME González Susana S Rabanaque María-José MJ Borràs Joan J Navarro Carmen C Hernández Esther E Izquierdo Angel A López-Abente Gonzalo G Martínez Carmen C

Journal of the National Cancer Institute 20091026 22

<h4>Background</h4>Since the 1980s, Spain experienced two decades of sharply increasing breast cancer incidence. Declines in breast cancer incidence have recently been reported in many developed countries. We examined whether a similar downturn might have taken place in Spain in recent years.<h4>Methods</h4>Cases of invasive female breast cancer were drawn from all population-based Spanish cancer registries that had at least 10 years of uninterrupted registration over the period 1980-2004. Overa ...[more]

PMID: 19861303

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Dataset Information

Recent changes in breast cancer incidence in Spain, 1980-2004.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Recent changes in breast cancer incidence in Spain, 1980-2004.

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