Dataset Information

A score to predict early risk of recurrence after ischemic stroke.

ABSTRACT:

Background

There is currently no instrument to stratify patients presenting with ischemic stroke according to early risk of recurrent stroke. We sought to develop a comprehensive prognostic score to predict 90-day risk of recurrent stroke.

Methods

We analyzed data on 1,458 consecutive ischemic stroke patients using a Cox regression model with time to recurrent stroke as the response and clinical and imaging features typically available to physician at admission as covariates. The 90-day risk of recurrent stroke was calculated by summing up the number of independent predictors weighted by their corresponding beta-coefficients. The resultant score was called recurrence risk estimator at 90 days or RRE-90 score (available at: http://www.nmr.mgh.harvard.edu/RRE-90/).

Results

Sixty recurrent strokes (54 had baseline imaging) occurred during the follow-up period. The risk adjusted for time to follow-up was 6.0%. Predictors of recurrence included admission etiologic stroke subtype, prior history of TIA/stroke, and topography, age, and distribution of brain infarcts. The RRE-90 score demonstrated adequate calibration and good discrimination (area under the ROC curve [AUC] = 0.70-0.80), which was maintained when applied to a separate cohort of 433 patients (AUC = 0.70-0.76). The model's performance was also maintained for predicting early (14-day) risk of recurrence (AUC = 0.80).

Conclusions

The RRE-90 is a Web-based, easy-to-use prognostic score that integrates clinical and imaging information available in the acute setting to quantify early risk of recurrent stroke. The RRE-90 demonstrates good predictive performance, suggesting that, if validated externally, it has promise for use in creating individualized patient management algorithms and improving clinical practice in acute stroke care.

SUBMITTER: Ay H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2809031 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A score to predict early risk of recurrence after ischemic stroke.

Ay H H Gungor L L Arsava E M EM Rosand J J Vangel M M Benner T T Schwamm L H LH Furie K L KL Koroshetz W J WJ Sorensen A G AG

Neurology 20091216 2

<h4>Background</h4>There is currently no instrument to stratify patients presenting with ischemic stroke according to early risk of recurrent stroke. We sought to develop a comprehensive prognostic score to predict 90-day risk of recurrent stroke.<h4>Methods</h4>We analyzed data on 1,458 consecutive ischemic stroke patients using a Cox regression model with time to recurrent stroke as the response and clinical and imaging features typically available to physician at admission as covariates. The ...[more]

PMID: 20018608

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Project description:BackgroundGastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a common and often serious complication after stroke. Although several risk factors for post-stroke GIB have been identified, no reliable or validated scoring system is currently available to predict GIB after acute stroke in routine clinical practice or clinical trials. In the present study, we aimed to develop and validate a risk model (acute ischemic stroke associated gastrointestinal bleeding score, the AIS-GIB score) to predict in-hospital GIB after acute ischemic stroke.MethodsThe AIS-GIB score was developed from data in the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR). Eligible patients in the CNSR were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and internal validation (40%) cohorts. External validation was performed using data from the prospective Chinese Intracranial Atherosclerosis Study (CICAS). Independent predictors of in-hospital GIB were obtained using multivariable logistic regression in the derivation cohort, and ?-coefficients were used to generate point scoring system for the AIS-GIB. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to assess model discrimination and calibration, respectively.ResultsA total of 8,820, 5,882, and 2,938 patients were enrolled in the derivation, internal validation and external validation cohorts. The overall in-hospital GIB after AIS was 2.6%, 2.3%, and 1.5% in the derivation, internal, and external validation cohort, respectively. An 18-point AIS-GIB score was developed from the set of independent predictors of GIB including age, gender, history of hypertension, hepatic cirrhosis, peptic ulcer or previous GIB, pre-stroke dependence, admission National Institutes of Health stroke scale score, Glasgow Coma Scale score and stroke subtype (Oxfordshire). The AIS-GIB score showed good discrimination in the derivation (0.79; 95% CI, 0.764-0.825), internal (0.78; 95% CI, 0.74-0.82) and external (0.76; 95% CI, 0.71-0.82) validation cohorts. The AIS-GIB score was well calibrated in the derivation (P = 0.42), internal (P = 0.45) and external (P = 0.86) validation cohorts.ConclusionThe AIS-GIB score is a valid clinical grading scale to predict in-hospital GIB after AIS. Further studies on the effect of the AIS-GIB score on reducing GIB and improving outcome after AIS are warranted.

Project description:Background and Purpose- If anterior circulation large vessel occlusion acute ischemic stroke patients presenting with ASPECTS 0-5 (Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score) should be treated with mechanical thrombectomy remains unclear. Purpose of this study was to report on the outcome of patients with ASPECTS 0-5 treated with mechanical thrombectomy and to provide data regarding the effect of successful reperfusion on clinical outcomes and safety measures in these patients. Methods- Multicenter, pooled analysis of 7 institutional prospective registries: Bernese-European Registry for Ischemic Stroke Patients Treated Outside Current Guidelines With Neurothrombectomy Devices Using the SOLITAIRE FR With the Intention for Thrombectomy (Clinical Trial Registration-URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT03496064). Primary outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale 0-3 at day 90 (favorable outcome). Secondary outcomes included rates of day 90 modified Rankin Scale 0-2 (functional independence), day 90 mortality and occurrence of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association of successful reperfusion with clinical outcomes. Outputs are displayed as adjusted Odds Ratios (aOR) and 95% CI. Results- Two hundred thirty-seven of 2046 patients included in this registry presented with anterior circulation large vessel occlusion and ASPECTS 0-5. In this subgroup, the overall rates of favorable outcome and mortality at day 90 were 40.1% and 40.9%. Achieving successful reperfusion was independently associated with favorable outcome (aOR, 5.534; 95% CI, 2.363-12.961), functional independence (aOR, 5.583; 95% CI, 1.964-15.873), reduced mortality (aOR, 0.180; 95% CI, 0.083-0.390), and lower rates of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (aOR, 0.235; 95% CI, 0.062-0.887). The mortality-reducing effect remained in patients with ASPECTS 0-4 (aOR, 0.167; 95% CI, 0.056-0.499). Sensitivity analyses did not change the primary results. Conclusions- In patients presenting with ASPECTS 0-5, who were treated with mechanical thrombectomy, successful reperfusion was beneficial without increasing the risk of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage. Although the results do not allow for general treatment recommendations, formal testing of mechanical thrombectomy versus best medical treatment in these patients in a randomized controlled trial is warranted.

Dataset Information

A score to predict early risk of recurrence after ischemic stroke.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

A score to predict early risk of recurrence after ischemic stroke.

Similar Datasets

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