Dataset Information

Risk score to predict gastrointestinal bleeding after acute ischemic stroke.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a common and often serious complication after stroke. Although several risk factors for post-stroke GIB have been identified, no reliable or validated scoring system is currently available to predict GIB after acute stroke in routine clinical practice or clinical trials. In the present study, we aimed to develop and validate a risk model (acute ischemic stroke associated gastrointestinal bleeding score, the AIS-GIB score) to predict in-hospital GIB after acute ischemic stroke.

Methods

The AIS-GIB score was developed from data in the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR). Eligible patients in the CNSR were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and internal validation (40%) cohorts. External validation was performed using data from the prospective Chinese Intracranial Atherosclerosis Study (CICAS). Independent predictors of in-hospital GIB were obtained using multivariable logistic regression in the derivation cohort, and ?-coefficients were used to generate point scoring system for the AIS-GIB. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to assess model discrimination and calibration, respectively.

Results

A total of 8,820, 5,882, and 2,938 patients were enrolled in the derivation, internal validation and external validation cohorts. The overall in-hospital GIB after AIS was 2.6%, 2.3%, and 1.5% in the derivation, internal, and external validation cohort, respectively. An 18-point AIS-GIB score was developed from the set of independent predictors of GIB including age, gender, history of hypertension, hepatic cirrhosis, peptic ulcer or previous GIB, pre-stroke dependence, admission National Institutes of Health stroke scale score, Glasgow Coma Scale score and stroke subtype (Oxfordshire). The AIS-GIB score showed good discrimination in the derivation (0.79; 95% CI, 0.764-0.825), internal (0.78; 95% CI, 0.74-0.82) and external (0.76; 95% CI, 0.71-0.82) validation cohorts. The AIS-GIB score was well calibrated in the derivation (P = 0.42), internal (P = 0.45) and external (P = 0.86) validation cohorts.

Conclusion

The AIS-GIB score is a valid clinical grading scale to predict in-hospital GIB after AIS. Further studies on the effect of the AIS-GIB score on reducing GIB and improving outcome after AIS are warranted.

SUBMITTER: Ji R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4120715 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Risk score to predict gastrointestinal bleeding after acute ischemic stroke.

Ji Ruijun R Shen Haipeng H Pan Yuesong Y Wang Penglian P Liu Gaifen G Wang Yilong Y Li Hao H Singhal Aneesh B AB Wang Yongjun Y

BMC gastroenterology 20140725

<h4>Background</h4>Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a common and often serious complication after stroke. Although several risk factors for post-stroke GIB have been identified, no reliable or validated scoring system is currently available to predict GIB after acute stroke in routine clinical practice or clinical trials. In the present study, we aimed to develop and validate a risk model (acute ischemic stroke associated gastrointestinal bleeding score, the AIS-GIB score) to predict in-hospit ...[more]

PMID: 25059927

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Project description:ObjectivesAcute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common reason for emergency hospital admission. Identifying low-risk patients suitable for outpatient management is a clinical and research priority. This study aimed to develop a simple risk score to identify elderly patients with UGIB for whom hospital admission is not required.DesignThis was a single-centre retrospective study.SettingThis study was conducted at Zhongda Hospital affiliated with Southeast University in China.ParticipantsPatients from January 2015 to December 2020 for the derivation cohort and from January 2021 to June 2022 for the validation cohort were enrolled in this study. A total of 822 patients (derivation cohort=606 and validation cohorts=216) were included in this study. Patients aged ≥65 years with coffee-grounds vomiting, melena or/and haematemesis were included in the analysis. Patients admitted but had UGIB or transferred between hospitals were excluded.MethodsBaseline demographic characteristics and clinical parameters were recorded at the first visit. Data were collected from electronic records and databases. Multivariable logistic regression modelling was performed to identify predictors of safe discharge.Results304/606 (50.2%) and 132/216 (61.1%) patients were not safely discharged in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. A clinical risk score of five variables was entered into UGIB risk stratification: Charlson Comorbidity Index >2, systolic blood pressure <100 mm Hg, haemoglobin <100 g/L, blood urea nitrogen ≥6.5 mmol/L, albumin <30 g/L. The optimal cut-off value was ≥1, the sensitivity was 97.37% and the specificity was 19.21% for predicting the inability to discharge safely. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.806.ConclusionsA novel clinical risk score with good discriminative performance was developed to identify elderly patients with UGIB who were suitable for safe outpatient management. This score can reduce unnecessary hospitalisations.

Project description:The Fast Assessment of Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack to Prevent Early Recurrence trial raised concern that loading doses of clopidogrel may increase hemorrhagic complications. We investigated if similar rates of hemorrhage occur in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) of varying severity.Patients meeting inclusion criteria were divided into 2 groups: the LOAD group and non-LOAD group. The LOAD group was defined as patients who were administered a loading dose of 300 mg or more of clopidogrel with or without aspirin within 24 hours of admission. The non-LOAD group was devised using propensity score (PS): 55 patients who received a loading dose of clopidogrel of 300 mg or more were matched on PS to 55 patients who did not receive loading doses. These patients were taken from a pool of 341 consecutive ischemic patients ineligible for intravenous or intra-arterial fibrinolysis, 162 of whom received a clopidogrel loading dose and the remainder of whom did not. The frequency of hemorrhage was compared between the 2 groups using Student t test and chi-square. Logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between loading dose and serious bleeding events (symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage [sICH] or transfusion for systemic bleeding).AIS patients (N = 596) were screened during the 31-month period of this retrospective study. Of this sample, 170 patients were excluded: 149 patients were excluded because they were treated with intravenous tissue plasminogen activator (IV t-PA) alone, 11 were excluded because they were treated with IV t-PA combined with intra-arterial therapy (IAT), and 10 were excluded for treatment with IAT alone. An additional 85 patients were excluded because they were not admitted to the stroke service or because they had an in-hospital stroke. Baseline characteristics of the groups were well matched. There were no significant differences in the rates of sICH, transfusion, hemorrhagic transformation, or systemic bleeding. Clopidogrel loading was not associated with increased odds of serious bleeding events in the crude model (odds ratio [OR] .92, 95% confidence interval [CI] .27-3.13) or after adjusting for covariates and confounders of interest (OR 1.06, 95% CI .28-4.04).Contrary to our original hypothesis, patients with AIS receiving clopidogrel loading doses within 24 hours of symptom onset did not appear to experience a higher rate of new serious bleeding events during acute hospitalization when compared with patients who did not receive loading doses. The Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke trial is expected to provide insight into the safety of clopidogrel loading as an acute intervention after cerebral ischemia.

Dataset Information

Risk score to predict gastrointestinal bleeding after acute ischemic stroke.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Risk score to predict gastrointestinal bleeding after acute ischemic stroke.

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