Dataset Information

Estimated epidemiologic parameters and morbidity associated with pandemic H1N1 influenza.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In the face of an influenza pandemic, accurate estimates of epidemiologic parameters are required to help guide decision-making. We sought to estimate epidemiologic parameters for pandemic H1N1 influenza using data from initial reports of laboratory-confirmed cases.

Methods

We obtained data on laboratory-confirmed cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza reported in the province of Ontario, Canada, with dates of symptom onset between Apr. 13 and June 20, 2009. Incubation periods and duration of symptoms were estimated and fit to parametric distributions. We used competing-risk models to estimate risk of hospital admission and case-fatality rates. We used a Markov Chain Monte Carlo model to simulate disease transmission.

Results

The median incubation period was 4 days and the duration of symptoms was 7 days. Recovery was faster among patients less than 18 years old than among older patients (hazard ratio 1.23, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.44). The risk of hospital admission was 4.5% (95% CI 3.8%-5.2%) and the case-fatality rate was 0.3% (95% CI 0.1%-0.5%). The risk of hospital admission was highest among patients less than 1 year old and those 65 years or older. Adults more than 50 years old comprised 7% of cases but accounted for 7 of 10 initial deaths (odds ratio 28.6, 95% confidence interval 7.3-111.2). From the simulation models, we estimated the following values (and 95% credible intervals): a mean basic reproductive number (R0, the number of new cases created by a single primary case in a susceptible population) of 1.31 (1.25-1.38), a mean latent period of 2.62 (2.28-3.12) days and a mean duration of infectiousness of 3.38 (2.06-4.69) days. From these values we estimated a serial interval (the average time from onset of infectiousness in a case to the onset of infectiousness in a person infected by that case) of 4-5 days.

Interpretation

The low estimates for R0 indicate that effective mitigation strategies may reduce the final epidemic impact of pandemic H1N1 influenza.

SUBMITTER: Tuite AR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2817319 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Estimated epidemiologic parameters and morbidity associated with pandemic H1N1 influenza.

Tuite Ashleigh R AR Greer Amy L AL Whelan Michael M Winter Anne-Luise AL Lee Brenda B Yan Ping P Wu Jianhong J Moghadas Seyed S Buckeridge David D Pourbohloul Babak B Fisman David N DN

CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne 20091203 2

<h4>Background</h4>In the face of an influenza pandemic, accurate estimates of epidemiologic parameters are required to help guide decision-making. We sought to estimate epidemiologic parameters for pandemic H1N1 influenza using data from initial reports of laboratory-confirmed cases.<h4>Methods</h4>We obtained data on laboratory-confirmed cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza reported in the province of Ontario, Canada, with dates of symptom onset between Apr. 13 and June 20, 2009. Incubation period ...[more]

PMID: 19959592

Similar Datasets

Project description:Because many Aboriginal Canadians had severe cases of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza, they were given priority access to vaccine. However, it was not known if the single recommended dose would adequately protect people at high risk, prompting our study to assess responses to the vaccine among Aboriginal Canadians.We enrolled First Nations and Métis adults aged 20-59 years in our prospective cohort study. Participants were given one 0.5-mL dose of ASO3-adjuvanted pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccine (Arepanrix, GlaxoSmithKline Canada). Blood samples were taken at baseline and 21-28 days after vaccination. Paired sera were tested for hemagglutination-inhibiting antibodies at a reference laboratory. To assess vaccine safety, we monitored the injection site symptoms of each participant for seven days. We also monitored patients for general symptoms within 7 days of vaccination and any use of the health care system for 21-28 days after vaccination.We enrolled 138 participants in the study (95 First Nations, 43 Métis), 137 of whom provided all safety data and 136 of whom provided both blood samples. First Nations and Métis participants had similar characteristics, including high rates of chronic health conditions (74.4%-76.8%). Pre-existing antibody to the virus was detected in 34.3% of the participants, all of whom boosted strongly with vaccination (seroprotection rate [titre ? 40] 100%, geometric mean titre 531-667). Participants with no pre-existing antibody also responded well. Fifty-eight of 59 (98.3%) First Nations participants showed seroprotection and a geometric mean titre of 353.6; all 30 Métis participants with no pre-existing antibody showed seroprotection and a geometric mean titre of 376.2. Pain at the injection site and general symptoms frequently occurred but were short-lived and generally not severe, although three participants (2.2%) sought medical attention for general symptoms.First Nations and Métis adults responded robustly to ASO3-adjuvanted pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccine. Virtually all participants showed protective titres, including those with chronic health conditions.

Dataset Information

Estimated epidemiologic parameters and morbidity associated with pandemic H1N1 influenza.

Background

Methods

Results

Interpretation

Publications

Estimated epidemiologic parameters and morbidity associated with pandemic H1N1 influenza.

Similar Datasets

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