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MELD score is an important predictor of pretransplantation mortality in HIV-infected liver transplant candidates.

ABSTRACT: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection accelerates liver disease progression in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and could shorten survival of those awaiting liver transplants. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score predicts mortality in HIV-negative transplant candidates, but its reliability has not been established in HIV-positive candidates.We evaluated predictors of pretransplantation mortality in HIV-positive liver transplant candidates enrolled in the Solid Organ Transplantation in HIV: Multi-Site Study (HIVTR) matched 1:5 by age, sex, race, and HCV infection with HIV-negative controls from the United Network for Organ Sharing.Of 167 HIVTR candidates, 24 died (14.4%); this mortality rate was similar to that of controls (88/792, 11.1%, P = .30) with no significant difference in causes of mortality. A significantly lower proportion of HIVTR candidates (34.7%) underwent liver transplantation, compared with controls (47.6%, P = .003). In the combined cohort, baseline MELD score predicted pretransplantation mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.27; P < .0001), whereas HIV infection did not (HR, 1.69; P = .20). After controlling for pretransplantation CD4(+) cell count and HIV RNA levels, the only significant predictor of mortality in the HIV-infected subjects was pretransplantation MELD score (HR, 1.2; P < .0001).Pretransplantation mortality characteristics are similar between HIV-positive and HIV-negative candidates. Although lower CD4(+) cell counts and detectable levels of HIV RNA might be associated with a higher rate of pretransplantation mortality, baseline MELD score was the only significant independent predictor of pretransplantation mortality in HIV-infected liver transplant candidates.

SUBMITTER: Subramanian A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2826170 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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MELD score is an important predictor of pretransplantation mortality in HIV-infected liver transplant candidates.

Subramanian Aruna A Sulkowski Mark M Barin Burc B Stablein Donald D Curry Michael M Nissen Nicholas N Dove Lorna L Roland Michelle M Florman Sander S Blumberg Emily E Stosor Valentina V Jayaweera D T DT Huprikar Shirish S Fung John J Pruett Timothy T Stock Peter P Ragni Margaret M

Gastroenterology 20090930 1

<h4>Background & aims</h4>Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection accelerates liver disease progression in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and could shorten survival of those awaiting liver transplants. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score predicts mortality in HIV-negative transplant candidates, but its reliability has not been established in HIV-positive candidates.<h4>Methods</h4>We evaluated predictors of pretransplantation mortality in HIV-positive liver transplant ...[more]

PMID: 19800334

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Project description:ImportanceLiver allocation is determined by the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), a scoring system based on 4 laboratory measurements. During the MELD era, sex disparities in liver transplant have increased and there are no modifications to MELD based on sex.ObjectiveTo use laboratory values stored in electronic health records to describe population-level sex differences in all MELD laboratory values (in healthy individuals and patients with liver disease) and propose a sex adjustment.Design, setting, and participantsA retrospective cohort study was conducted from March 2019 to April 2020 to evaluate sex differences in laboratory values in liver transplant patients, patients with liver disease who did not undergo transplant, and healthy controls. Primary analyses were conducted in Vanderbilt University Medical Center (VUMC)'s deidentified electronic health record system. Replication analyses were conducted in the All of Us Research Program. Simulations of a sex-adjusted sodium-adjusted MELD (MELDNa) score were completed using liver transplant waiting list data from the liver simulated allocation modeling system. Patients who regularly used VUMC with measurements for any MELDNa component laboratory were included in the analyses. Analysis took place from November 2019 to March 2021.ExposuresElectronic health record-reported sex.Main outcomes and measureCreatinine, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and sodium levels.ResultsThe VUMC sample was composed of 623 931 individuals (359 976 [57.7%] female) with a median (IQR) age of 44 (23-61) years. All component MELDNa laboratory values and calculated MELDNa scores yielded significant sex differences within VUMC (mean [SD] creatinine: male, 0.99 [0.39] mg/dL; female, 0.79 [0.30] mg/dL; P < .001; bilirubin: male, 0.76 [0.83] mg/dL; female, 0.58 [0.64] mg/dL; P < .001; international normalized ratio of prothrombin rate: male, 1.24 [0.42]; female, 1.20 [0.40]; P < .001; sodium: male, 139.00 [2.36] mEq/L; female, 139.03 [2.28] mEq/L; P < .001), resulting in MELDNa scoring that disadvantaged female individuals. This pattern persisted when the sample was divided into healthy controls, individuals with liver disease who did not undergo transplant, and patients who did undergo liver transplant. Female transplant patients had a greater number of decompensation traits (mean [SD]: male, 1.34 [1.11]; female, 1.60 [1.09]; P = .005), despite having lower MELDNa scores (mean [SD]: male, 21.72 [6.11]; female, 20.21 [6.15]; P = .005), indicating MELDNa scores are not accurately representing disease severity in female individuals. In simulations, the sex-adjusted MELDNa score modestly increased female transplant rate and decreased overall death.Conclusions and relevanceThese results demonstrate pervasive sex differences in all laboratory values used in MELDNa scoring and highlight the need and utility of a sex-adjustment to the MELDNa protocol.

Project description:BackgroundControversy exists regarding the best predictive model of liver transplant waiting list (WL) mortality. Models for end-stage liver disease-glomerular filtration rate assessment in liver disease (MELD-GRAIL) and MELD-GRAIL-Na were recently described to provide better prognostication, particularly in females. We evaluated the performance of these scores compared to MELD and MELD-Na.MethodsConsecutive patients with cirrhosis waitlisted for liver transplant from 1998 to 2017 were examined in this single-center study. The primary outcome was 90-d WL mortality. MELD, MELD-Na, MELD-GRAIL, and MELD-GRAIL-Na at the time of WL registration were compared. Model discrimination was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves and Harrell's C-index after fitting Cox models. Model calibration was examined with Grønnesby and Borgan's modification of the Hosmer-Lemeshow formula and by comparing predicted/observed outcomes across model strata.ResultsThe study population comprised 1108 patients with a median age of 53.5 (interquartile range 48-59) y and male predominance (74.9%). All models had excellent areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the primary outcome (MELD 0.89, MELD-Na 0.91, MELD-GRAIL 0.89, MELD-GRAIL-Na 0.89; all comparisons P > 0.05). Youden index cutoffs for 90-d mortality were as follows: MELD, 19; MELD-Na, 22; MELD-GRAIL, 18; and MELD-GRAIL-Na, 17. Variables associated with 90-d mortality on multivariable Cox regression were sodium, bilirubin, creatinine, and international normalized ratio. There were no differences in model discrimination using Harrell's C-index. All models were well calibrated; however, divergence between observed and predicted mortality was noted with scores ≥25.ConclusionThere were no demonstrable differences in discrimination or calibration of GRAIL-based models compared with MELD or MELD-Na in our cohort. This suggests that GRAIL-based models may not have meaningful improvements in discriminatory ability when applied to other settings.

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MELD score is an important predictor of pretransplantation mortality in HIV-infected liver transplant candidates.

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MELD score is an important predictor of pretransplantation mortality in HIV-infected liver transplant candidates.

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