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Pre-Operative Delta-MELD is an Independent Predictor of Higher Mortality following Liver Transplantation.

ABSTRACT: Clinical decompensation immediately prior to liver transplantation may affect post-liver transplant (LT) outcomes. Using the serial Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores recorded in the United Network for Organ Sharing national registry (2010-2017), we analyzed post-LT mortality among adult LT recipients based on the degree of fluctuation in MELD score during the 30-day period prior to LT surgery. Delta-MELD (D-MELD) was defined as recipient MELD score at LT minus lowest MELD score within the preceding 30 days. Impact of D-MELD as a continuous and categorical variable (D-MELD 0-4, 5-10, >10) on early, 30-day post-LT mortality was assessed. Overall, a total of 12,785 LT recipients were analyzed, of which 8,862 (67.9%) had a pre-operative D-MELD 0-4; 2,574 (20.1%) with a D-MELD 5-10; and 1,529 (12.0%) with a D-MELD?>?10. One-point incremental increase in pre-operative D-MELD (adjusted HR, 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04-1.10) was associated with higher 30-day post-LT mortality. Moreover, pre-operative D-MELD?>?10 was associated with nearly a two-fold increased risk for 30-day post-LT mortality (adjusted HR, 1.89, 95% CI: 1.30-2.77) compared to D-MELD 0-4. The increased risk of pre-LT mortality associated with severity of clinical decompensation assessed by the magnitude of pre-operative D-MELD persists in the early post-LT period.

SUBMITTER: Cholankeril G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6549161 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Pre-Operative Delta-MELD is an Independent Predictor of Higher Mortality following Liver Transplantation.

Cholankeril George G Li Andrew A AA Dennis Brittany B BB Gadiparthi Chiranjeevi C Kim Donghee D Toll Alice E AE Maliakkal Benedict J BJ Satapathy Sanjaya K SK Nair Satheesh S Ahmed Aijaz A

Scientific reports 20190605 1

Clinical decompensation immediately prior to liver transplantation may affect post-liver transplant (LT) outcomes. Using the serial Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores recorded in the United Network for Organ Sharing national registry (2010-2017), we analyzed post-LT mortality among adult LT recipients based on the degree of fluctuation in MELD score during the 30-day period prior to LT surgery. Delta-MELD (D-MELD) was defined as recipient MELD score at LT minus lowest MELD score wit ...[more]

PMID: 31165776

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Project description:BackgroundVenous thromboembolism (VTE) is the most common preventable cause of 30-day post-operative mortality, with many events occurring after hospital discharge. High-level evidence supports post-discharge VTE chemoprophylaxis following abdominal/pelvic cancer resection; however, some studies support a more tailored approach. Our objectives were to (1) identify risk factors associated with post-discharge VTE in a large cohort of patients undergoing colorectal cancer resection and (2) develop a post-discharge VTE risk calculator.MethodsPatients who underwent colorectal cancer resection from 2012 to 2016 were identified from ACS NSQIP colectomy and proctectomy procedure-targeted modules. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with post-discharge VTE. Incorporating pre-operative, intra-operative, and post-operative variables, a post-discharge VTE risk calculator was constructed and validated.ResultsOf 51,139 patients, 387 (0.76%) developed post-discharge VTE. Pre-operative factors associated with post-discharge VTE included BMI (e.g., morbidly obese OR 2.27, 95% CI 1.65-3.12 vs. normal BMI), and thrombocytosis (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.03-1.92). Intra-operative factors included operative time (4-6 h OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.12-2.17; > 6 h, OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.21-2.84, vs. < 2 h), and type of operation (e.g., open partial colectomy OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.30-2.16 vs. laparoscopic partial colectomy). Post-operative factors included anastomotic leak (OR 2.05, 95% CI 1.31-3.21) and post-operative ileus (OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.07-1.79). Using the risk calculator, the predicted probability of post-discharge VTE ranged from 0.04 to 10.29%. On a 10-fold cross validation, the calculator's mean C-Statistic was 0.65.ConclusionsPatient-specific factors are associated with varying rates of post-discharge VTE. We present the first post-discharge VTE risk calculator designed for use at the time of discharge following colorectal cancer resection.

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Pre-Operative Delta-MELD is an Independent Predictor of Higher Mortality following Liver Transplantation.

Publications

Pre-Operative Delta-MELD is an Independent Predictor of Higher Mortality following Liver Transplantation.

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