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Consensus guidelines in the management of branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

ABSTRACT: Based on consensus guidelines, surgical resection of branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (BD-IPMN) is indicated in patients with symptoms of cyst size >or=30 mm, intramural nodules, or dilated main pancreatic duct greater than 6 mm. The aim of this study was to determine the cost effectiveness of consensus guideline implementation in the management of BD-IPMN.We developed a decision analytic model to compare the costs and effectiveness of three management strategies for a cohort of 60-year-old patients with branch duct IPMN: (1) surveillance using consensus guidelines for surgical resection (surveillance strategy), (2) surgical resection based on symptoms without surveillance (no surveillance strategy), and (3) immediate surgery (surgery strategy). The primary outcomes were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), cost, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Sensitivity analysis was performed over a wide ranges of estimates.The no surveillance strategy was the least costly, but also the least effective, while the surgery strategy was the most costly and most effective. Compared to the no surveillance strategy, the surveillance strategy cost an additional $20,096 per QALY. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the surgery strategy compared with the surveillance strategy was $132,436 per QALY. In a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, if society was willing to pay $50,000 per quality-adjusted life year gained, then 88.1% of patients using the surveillance strategy would be within budget.Immediate surgery is the most effective, but may be prohibitively expensive. The surveillance strategy is a cost-effective option compared to no surveillance.

SUBMITTER: Huang ES

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2875154 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Consensus guidelines in the management of branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Huang Edward S ES Gazelle G Scott GS Hur Chin C

Digestive diseases and sciences 20091016 3

<h4>Background and aims</h4>Based on consensus guidelines, surgical resection of branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (BD-IPMN) is indicated in patients with symptoms of cyst size >or=30 mm, intramural nodules, or dilated main pancreatic duct greater than 6 mm. The aim of this study was to determine the cost effectiveness of consensus guideline implementation in the management of BD-IPMN.<h4>Methods</h4>We developed a decision analytic model to compare the costs and effectiveness ...[more]

PMID: 19834805

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Project description:ImportanceBranch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) are common pancreatic preneoplastic lesions, but their surveillance is not personalized.ObjectiveTo investigate patient- and cyst-related factors associated with progression into worrisome features (WFs) or high-risk stigmata (HRS) categories of BD-IPMNs.Design, setting, and participantsCyst- and patient-related factors of consecutive BD-IPMNs without WFs or HRS in 540 patients diagnosed from 2009 to 2018 with at least 12 months' surveillance until February 28, 2020, were registered in a 2-center ambispective cohort study in Italy. In a subgroup, the ABO blood group was studied for the first time in this setting.ExposureCyst-related and patients-related factors and ABO blood group.Main outcomes and measuresThe study outcome was the appearance of WFs or HRS according to the 2017 International Association of Pancreatology guidelines. Survival probability was calculated using Kaplan-Meier curve and risk factors identified by Cox proportional hazards regression. ABO blood group was inferred through genotypes with DNA extraction.ResultsOf 540 patients with BD-IPMNs (median age, 66 years [interquartile range, 58.5-72.0 years]; 337 women [62.4%]) undergoing surveillance for a median of 51.5 months (interquartile range, 28-84 months) for 2758 person-years, 130 patients (24.1%) experienced progression. Probability of progression was 3.7% at 1 year, 23.4% at 5 years, and 43.3% at 10 years; 15 patients (2.8%) underwent surgery, 7 patients (1.3%) had malignant histologic findings, and 3 patients (0.56%) died of pancreatic-associated disease. Initial cyst size greater than 15 mm (hazard ratio [HR], 2.05; 95% CI, 1.44-2.91), body mass index greater than 26.4 (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.19-2.50), and heavy smoking (HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.14-2.86) were significant independent factors associated with progression risk. The AA blood genotype was also associated with progression risk (HR, 3.49; 95% CI, 1.04-11.71) compared with the OO genotype in the investigated subgroup.Conclusions and relevanceThis analysis of factors associated with progression of BD-IPMNs according to recent guidelines suggests that cyst size alone is not a reliable factor for estimation of progression risk; however, along with other readily available data, size is helpful for planning personalized surveillance of BD-IPMNs.

Project description:BackgroundMain pancreatic duct (MPD) dilation is a high-risk stigmata/worrisome feature of malignancy in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). The threshold of MPD diameter in predicting malignancy may be related to the lesion location. This study aimed to separately identify the thresholds of MPD for malignancy of IPMNs separately for the head-neck and body-tail.Materials and methodsA total of 185 patients with pathologically confirmed IPMNs were included. Patient demographic information, clinical data, and pathological features were obtained from the medical records. Those IPMNs with high-grade dysplasia or with associated invasive carcinoma were considered as malignant tumor. Radiological data including lesion location, tumor size, diameter of the MPD, mural nodule, and IPMN types (main duct, MD; branch duct, BD; and mixed type, MT), were collected on computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging. Serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels, serum carcinoembryonic antigen levels, and the medical history of diabetes mellitus, chronic cholecystitis, and pancreatitis were also collected.ResultsMalignant IPMNs were detected in 31.6% of 117 patients with lesions in the pancreatic head-neck and 20.9% of 67 patients with lesions in the pancreatic body-tail. In MPD-involved IPMNs, malignancy was observed in 54.1% of patients with lesions in the pancreatic head-neck and 30.8% of patients with lesions in the pancreatic body-tail (p < 0.05). The cutoff value of MPD diameter for malignancy was 6.5 mm for lesions in the head-neck and 7.7 mm for lesions in the body-tail in all type of IPMNs. In MPD-involved IPMNs, the threshold was 8.2 mm for lesion in pancreatic head-neck and 7.7 mm for lesions in the body-tail. Multivariate analysis confirmed that MPD diameter ≥ 6.5 mm (pancreatic head-neck) and MPD diameter ≥ 7.7 mm (pancreatic body-tail) were independent predictors of malignancy (p < 0.05). Similar results were observed in MPD-involved IPMNs using 8.2 mm as a threshold.ConclusionThe thresholds of the dilated MPD may be associated with IPMNs locations. Thresholds of 6.5 mm for lesions in the head-neck and 7.7 mm for lesions in the body-tail were observed. For MPD-involved IPMNs alone, threshold for lesions in the head-neck was close to that in the body-tail.

Project description:ObjectivesCurrent guidelines base the management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) on several well-established resection criteria (RC), including cyst size. However, malignancy may occur in small cysts. Since branch-duct (BD) IPMN are not perfect spheres, volumetric and morphologic analysis might better correlate with mucin production and grade of dysplasia. Nonetheless, their role in malignancy (high-grade dysplasia/invasive cancer) prediction has been poorly investigated. Previous studies evaluating RC also included patients with solid-mass-forming pancreatic cancer (PC), which may affect the RC yield. This study aimed to assess the role of volume, morphology, and other well-established RC in malignancy prediction in patients with BD- and mixed-type IPMN after excluding solid masses.MethodsRetrospective ethical review-board-approved study of 106 patients (2008-2019) with histopathological diagnosis of BD- and mixed-type IPMN (without solid masses) and preoperative MRI available. Standard imaging and clinical features were collected, and the novel imaging features cyst-volume and elongation value [EV = 1 - (width/length)] calculated on T2-weighted images. Logistic regression analysis was performed. Statistical significance set at two-tails, p < 0.05.ResultsNeither volume (odds ratio (OR) = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.99-1.02, p = 0.12) nor EV (OR = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.02-5.93, p = 0.49) was associated with malignancy. Contrast-enhancing mural nodules (MN), main pancreatic duct (MPD) ≥ 5 mm, and elevated carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 serum levels (> 37 μmol/L) were associated with malignancy (MN OR: 4.32, 95% CI: 1.18-15.76, p = 0.02; MPD ≥ 5 mm OR: 4.2, 95% CI: 1.34-13.1, p = 0.01; CA19-9 OR: 6.72; 95% CI: 1.89 - 23.89, p = 0.003).ConclusionsVolume and elongation value cannot predict malignancy in BD- and/or mixed-type IPMN. Mural nodules, MPD ≥ 5 mm and elevated CA19-9 serum levels are associated with higher malignancy risk even after the exclusion of solid masses.Key points• Novel and well-established resection criteria for IPMN have been evaluated after excluding solid masses. • BD-IPMN volume and elongation value cannot predict malignancy. • Main pancreatic duct ≥ 5 mm, mural nodules, and elevated carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels are associated with malignancy.

Dataset Information

Consensus guidelines in the management of branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Publications

Consensus guidelines in the management of branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

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