Dataset Information

Predicting global atmospheric ice nuclei distributions and their impacts on climate.

ABSTRACT: Knowledge of cloud and precipitation formation processes remains incomplete, yet global precipitation is predominantly produced by clouds containing the ice phase. Ice first forms in clouds warmer than -36 degrees C on particles termed ice nuclei. We combine observations from field studies over a 14-year period, from a variety of locations around the globe, to show that the concentrations of ice nuclei active in mixed-phase cloud conditions can be related to temperature and the number concentrations of particles larger than 0.5 microm in diameter. This new relationship reduces unexplained variability in ice nuclei concentrations at a given temperature from approximately 10(3) to less than a factor of 10, with the remaining variability apparently due to variations in aerosol chemical composition or other factors. When implemented in a global climate model, the new parameterization strongly alters cloud liquid and ice water distributions compared to the simple, temperature-only parameterizations currently widely used. The revised treatment indicates a global net cloud radiative forcing increase of approximately 1 W m(-2) for each order of magnitude increase in ice nuclei concentrations, demonstrating the strong sensitivity of climate simulations to assumptions regarding the initiation of cloud glaciation.

SUBMITTER: DeMott PJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2895116 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting global atmospheric ice nuclei distributions and their impacts on climate.

DeMott P J PJ Prenni A J AJ Liu X X Kreidenweis S M SM Petters M D MD Twohy C H CH Richardson M S MS Eidhammer T T Rogers D C DC

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20100607 25

Knowledge of cloud and precipitation formation processes remains incomplete, yet global precipitation is predominantly produced by clouds containing the ice phase. Ice first forms in clouds warmer than -36 degrees C on particles termed ice nuclei. We combine observations from field studies over a 14-year period, from a variety of locations around the globe, to show that the concentrations of ice nuclei active in mixed-phase cloud conditions can be related to temperature and the number concentrat ...[more]

PMID: 20534566

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Project description:The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with archipelago-wide climatic variation. We used present day climate maps calibrated using local weather data, 2020-2080 climate predictions from regional climate models, non-climate variables derived from a digital terrain model and a comprehensive database on local plant distributions. Weighted mean ensemble models were produced to assess changes in range sizes and overlaps between the current range and protected areas network. Target species included three globally threatened Falkland endemics, Nassauvia falklandica, Nastanthus falklandicus and Plantago moorei; and two nationally threatened species, Acaena antarctica and Blechnum cordatum. Our research demonstrates that temperature increases predicted for the next century have the potential to significantly alter plant distributions across the Falklands. Upland species, in particular, were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. No known locations of target upland species or the southwestern species Plantago moorei are predicted to remain environmentally suitable in the face of predicted climate change. We identify potential refugia for these species and associated gaps in the current protected areas network. Species currently restricted to the milder western parts of the archipelago are broadly predicted to expand their ranges under warmer temperatures. Our results emphasise the importance of implementing suitable adaptation strategies to offset climate change impacts, particularly site management. There is an urgent need for long-term monitoring and artificial warming experiments; the results of this study will inform the selection of the most suitable locations for these. Results are also helping inform management recommendations for the Falkland Islands Government who seek to better conserve their biodiversity and meet commitments to multi-lateral environmental agreements.

Dataset Information

Predicting global atmospheric ice nuclei distributions and their impacts on climate.

Publications

Predicting global atmospheric ice nuclei distributions and their impacts on climate.

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