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Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size.

ABSTRACT: Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ?28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40-73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55-100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22-67% and 44-100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population.

SUBMITTER: Molnar PK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3105343 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size.

Molnár Péter K PK Derocher Andrew E AE Klanjscek Tin T Lewis Mark A MA

Nature communications 20110208

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size decli ...[more]

PMID: 21304515

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Project description:Polar bears in captivity can be exposed to opportunistic pathogens not present in their natural environments. A 4-month-old polar bear (Ursus maritimus) living in an isolated enclosure with his mother in the Tierpark Berlin, Berlin, Germany, was suffering from severe abdominal pain, mild diarrhea, and loss of appetite and died in early 2017. Histopathology revealed severe hepatic degeneration and necrosis without evidence of inflammation or inclusion bodies, although a viral infection had been suspected on the basis of the clinical signs. We searched for nucleic acids of pathogens by shotgun high-throughput sequencing (HTS) from genomic DNA and cDNA extracted from tissue and blood. We identified a novel Mastadenovirus and assembled a nearly complete genome from the shotgun sequences. Quantitative PCR (qPCR) revealed that viral DNA was present in various concentrations in all tissues examined and that the highest concentrations were found in blood. Viral culture did not yield cytopathic effects, but qPCR suggested that virus replication was sustained for up to three passages. Positive immunofluorescence staining confirmed that the virus was able to replicate in the cells during early passage. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that the virus is highly divergent compared to other previously identified Mastadenovirus members and basal to most known viral clades. The virus was found only in the 4-month-old bear and not in other captive polar bears tested. We surmised, therefore, that the polar bear was infected from an unknown reservoir, illustrating that adenoviral diversity remains underestimated and that cross-species transmission of viruses can occur even under conditions of relative isolation.IMPORTANCE Cross-species transmission of viral pathogens is becoming an increasing problem for captive-animal facilities. This study highlights how animals in captivity are vulnerable to novel opportunistic pathogens, many of which do not result in straightforward diagnosis from symptoms and histopathology. In this study, a novel pathogen was suspected to have contributed to the death of a juvenile polar bear. HTS techniques were employed, and a novel Mastadenovirus was isolated. The virus was present in both the tissue and blood samples. Phylogenetic analysis of the virus at both the gene and genome levels revealed that it is highly divergent to other known mastadenoviruses. Overall, this study shows that animals in isolated conditions still come into contact with novel pathogens, and for many of these pathogens, the host reservoir and mode of transmission are yet to be determined.

Project description:BACKGROUND:The transmission of malaria is highly variable and depends on a range of climatic and anthropogenic factors. This study investigates the combined, i.e. direct and indirect, impacts of climate change on the dynamics of malaria through modifications in: (i) the sporogonic cycle of Plasmodium induced by air temperature increase, and (ii) the life cycle of Anopheles vector triggered by changes in natural breeding habitat arising from the altered moisture dynamics resulting from acclimation responses of vegetation under climate change. The study is performed for a rural region in Kilifi county, Kenya. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We use a stochastic lattice-based malaria (SLIM) model to make predictions of changes in Anopheles vector abundance, the life cycle of Plasmodium parasites, and thus malaria transmission under projected climate change in the study region. SLIM incorporates a nonlinear temperature-dependence of malaria parasite development to estimate the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium. It is also linked with a spatially distributed eco-hydrologic modeling framework to capture the impacts of climate change on soil moisture dynamics, which served as a key determinant for the formation and persistence of mosquito larval habitats on the land surface. Malaria incidence data collected from 2008 to 2013 is used for SLIM model validation. Projections of climate change and human population for the region are used to run the models for prediction scenarios. Under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) only, modeled results reveal wetter soil moisture in the root zone due to the suppression of transpiration from vegetation acclimation, which increases the abundance of Anopheles vectors and the risk of malaria. When air temperature increases are also considered along with elevated [CO2], the life cycle of Anopheles vector and the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium parasites are shortened nonlinearly. However, the reduction of soil moisture resulting from higher evapotranspiration due to air temperature increase also reduces the larval habitats of the vector. Our findings show the complicated role of vegetation acclimation under elevated [CO2] on malaria dynamics and indicate an indirect but ignored impact of air temperature increase on malaria transmission through reduction in larval habitats and vector density. CONCLUSIONS:Vegetation acclimation triggered by elevated [CO2] under climate change increases the risk of malaria. In addition, air temperature increase under climate change has opposing effects on mosquito larval habitats and the life cycles of both Anopheles vectors and Plasmodium parasites. The indirect impacts of temperature change on soil moisture dynamics are significant and should be weighed together with the direct effects of temperature change on the life cycles of mosquitoes and parasites for future malaria prediction and control.

Dataset Information

Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size.

Publications

Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size.

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