Dataset Information

Prediction and analysis of near-road concentrations using a reduced-form emission/dispersion model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Near-road exposures of traffic-related air pollutants have been receiving increased attention due to evidence linking emissions from high-traffic roadways to adverse health outcomes. To date, most epidemiological and risk analyses have utilized simple but crude exposure indicators, most typically proximity measures, such as the distance between freeways and residences, to represent air quality impacts from traffic. This paper derives and analyzes a simplified microscale simulation model designed to predict short- (hourly) to long-term (annual average) pollutant concentrations near roads. Sensitivity analyses and case studies are used to highlight issues in predicting near-road exposures.

Methods

Process-based simulation models using a computationally efficient reduced-form response surface structure and a minimum number of inputs integrate the major determinants of air pollution exposures: traffic volume and vehicle emissions, meteorology, and receptor location. We identify the most influential variables and then derive a set of multiplicative submodels that match predictions from "parent" models MOBILE6.2 and CALINE4. The assembled model is applied to two case studies in the Detroit, Michigan area. The first predicts carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations at a monitoring site near a freeway. The second predicts CO and PM2.5 concentrations in a dense receptor grid over a 1 km2 area around the intersection of two major roads. We analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of pollutant concentration predictions.

Results

Predicted CO concentrations showed reasonable agreement with annual average and 24-hour measurements, e.g., 59% of the 24-hr predictions were within a factor of two of observations in the warmer months when CO emissions are more consistent. The highest concentrations of both CO and PM(2.5) were predicted to occur near intersections and downwind of major roads during periods of unfavorable meteorology (e.g., low wind speeds) and high emissions (e.g., weekday rush hour). The spatial and temporal variation among predicted concentrations was significant, and resulted in unusual distributional and correlation characteristics, including strong negative correlation for receptors on opposite sides of a road and the highest short-term concentrations on the "upwind" side of the road.

Conclusions

The case study findings can likely be generalized to many other locations, and they have important implications for epidemiological and other studies. The reduced-form model is intended for exposure assessment, risk assessment, epidemiological, geographical information systems, and other applications.

SUBMITTER: Batterman SA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2914002 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Prediction and analysis of near-road concentrations using a reduced-form emission/dispersion model.

Batterman Stuart A SA Zhang Kai K Kononowech Robert R

Environmental health : a global access science source 20100625

<h4>Background</h4>Near-road exposures of traffic-related air pollutants have been receiving increased attention due to evidence linking emissions from high-traffic roadways to adverse health outcomes. To date, most epidemiological and risk analyses have utilized simple but crude exposure indicators, most typically proximity measures, such as the distance between freeways and residences, to represent air quality impacts from traffic. This paper derives and analyzes a simplified microscale simula ...[more]

PMID: 20579353

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Project description:The development of accurate and appropriate exposure metrics for health effect studies of traffic-related air pollutants (TRAPs) remains challenging and important given that traffic has become the dominant urban exposure source and that exposure estimates can affect estimates of associated health risk. Exposure estimates obtained using dispersion models can overcome many of the limitations of monitoring data, and such estimates have been used in several recent health studies. This study examines the sensitivity of exposure estimates produced by dispersion models to meteorological, emission and traffic allocation inputs, focusing on applications to health studies examining near-road exposures to TRAP. Daily average concentrations of CO and NOx predicted using the Research Line source model (RLINE) and a spatially and temporally resolved mobile source emissions inventory are compared to ambient measurements at near-road monitoring sites in Detroit, MI, and are used to assess the potential for exposure measurement error in cohort and population-based studies. Sensitivity of exposure estimates is assessed by comparing nominal and alternative model inputs using statistical performance evaluation metrics and three sets of receptors. The analysis shows considerable sensitivity to meteorological inputs; generally the best performance was obtained using data specific to each monitoring site. An updated emission factor database provided some improvement, particularly at near-road sites, while the use of site-specific diurnal traffic allocations did not improve performance compared to simpler default profiles. Overall, this study highlights the need for appropriate inputs, especially meteorological inputs, to dispersion models aimed at estimating near-road concentrations of TRAPs. It also highlights the potential for systematic biases that might affect analyses that use concentration predictions as exposure measures in health studies, e.g., to estimate health impacts.

Project description:Background:Air pollution has become a major problem around the world and is increasingly an issue in Togo due to increased vehicular traffic. Gaseous pollutants are released by engines and are very harmful to human health and the environment. The fuels used on the major road in Togo, the N2, are adulterated with unknown contents and are of poor quality. Many of the vehicles come from neighboring countries, such as Benin, Ghana and Nigeria. Objectives:The present study aims to evaluate the pollution rate in Togo through the estimation of the concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particular matter (PM) on the international road, the National Road N2, in Lomé, compared to the World Health Organization's (WHO) standard limit. Methods:The simulations of pollutant concentration were performed using the Industrial Source Complex Short Term Version 3 model, which is included in the United States Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (USEPA) AERMOD View software. The meteorological averages data were obtained from the local station near the National Road N2 in Togo in 2018. Hourly averages were calculated according to the European Monitoring Evaluation Programme/European Environmental Agency air pollutant emission inventory guidebook 2016 and were processed using AERMET View and a terrain pre-processor, AERMAP. For the model, the sources of pollution were the vehicles traveling on the road segment. The source was a line volume with 20 m of width and 2 m of height. The estimation methodology covered exhaust emissions of NOx, SO2 and PM contained in the fuel. Results:The simulations provided average hourly, daily and annual concentrations of the different pollutants: 71.91 ?g/m3, 42.41 ?g/m3,11.23 ?g/m3 for SO2; 16.78 ?g/m3, 9.89 ?g/m3, 2.46 ?g/m3 for NOx and below the detection limit, 0.62 ?g/m3, 0.15 ?g/m3 for PM, respectively. These results indicate that on the National Road N2 in Togo, the concentrations of SO2 were high compared to those of NOx and PM. The daily average concentration of SO2 was twice the permissible limits set by the WHO. Conclusions:Emissions obtained from the AERMOD for NOx and PM were less than the permissible limits set by the WHO, while the rate of SO2 was twice the permissible limit. The fuels used on this road were very rich in sulfur. The sulfur level in fuels must be monitored by stakeholders in Togo. Competing Interests:The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Project description:This paper describes a new regression modeling approach to estimate on-road nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and oxides of nitrogen (NOX) concentrations and near-road spatial gradients using data from a near-road monitoring network. Field data were collected in Las Vegas, NV at three monitors sited 20, 100, and 300 m from Interstate-15 between December, 2008 and January, 2010. Measurements of NO2 and NOX were integrated over 1-hour intervals and matched with meteorological data. Several mathematical transformations were tested for regressing pollutant concentrations against distance from the roadway. A logit-ln model was found to have the best fit (R2 = 94.7%) and also provided a physically realistic profile. The mathematical model used data from the near-road monitors to estimate on-road concentrations and the near-road gradient over which mobile source pollutants have concentrations elevated above background levels. Average and maximum on-road NO2 concentration estimates were 33 ppb and 105 ppb, respectively. Concentration gradients were steeper in the morning and late afternoon compared with overnight when stable conditions preclude mixing. Estimated on-road concentrations were also highest in the late afternoon. Median estimated on-road and gradient NO2 concentrations were lower during summer compared with winter, with a steeper gradient during the summer, when convective mixing occurs during a longer portion of the day On-road concentration estimates were higher for winds perpendicular to the road compared with parallel winds and for atmospheric stability with neutral-to-unstable atmospheric conditions. The concentration gradient with increasing distance from the road was estimated to be sharper for neutral-to-unstable conditions when compared with stable conditions and for parallel wind conditions compared with perpendicular winds. A regression of the NO2/NOX ratios yielded on-road ratios ranging from 0.25 to 0.35, substantially higher than the anticipated tail-pipe emissions ratios. The results from the ratios also showed that the diurnal cycle of the background NO2/NOX ratios were a driving factor in the on-road and downwind NO2/NOX ratios.

Dataset Information

Prediction and analysis of near-road concentrations using a reduced-form emission/dispersion model.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Prediction and analysis of near-road concentrations using a reduced-form emission/dispersion model.

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