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Comparison of 2 approaches for determining the natural history risk of brain arteriovenous malformation rupture.

ABSTRACT: Estimating risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) for patients with unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) in the natural course is essential for assessing risks and benefits of treatment. Traditionally, the survival period starts at the time of diagnosis and ends at ICH, but most patients are quickly censored because of treatment. Alternatively, a survival period from birth to first ICH, censoring at the date of diagnosis, has been proposed. The authors quantitatively compared these 2 timelines using survival analysis in 1,581 Northern California brain AVM patients (2000-2007). Time-shift analysis of the birth-to-diagnosis timeline and maximum pseudolikelihood identified the point at which the 2 survival curves overlapped; the 95% confidence interval was determined using bootstrapping. Annual ICH rates per 100 patient-years were similar for both the birth-to-diagnosis (1.27, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.18, 1.36) and the diagnosis-to-ICH (1.17, 95% CI: 0.89, 1.53) timelines, despite differences in curve morphology. Shifting the birth-to-diagnosis timeline an optimal amount (10.3 years, 95% CI: 3.3, 17.4) resulted in similar ICH survival curves (P = 0.979). These results suggest that the unconventional birth-to-diagnosis approach can be used to analyze risk factors for natural history risk in unruptured brain AVM patients, providing greater statistical power. The data also suggest a biologic change around age 10 years influencing ICH rate.

SUBMITTER: Kim H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2915493 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Comparison of 2 approaches for determining the natural history risk of brain arteriovenous malformation rupture.

Kim Helen H McCulloch Charles E CE Johnston S Claiborne SC Lawton Michael T MT Sidney Stephen S Young William L WL

American journal of epidemiology 20100514 12

Estimating risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) for patients with unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) in the natural course is essential for assessing risks and benefits of treatment. Traditionally, the survival period starts at the time of diagnosis and ends at ICH, but most patients are quickly censored because of treatment. Alternatively, a survival period from birth to first ICH, censoring at the date of diagnosis, has been proposed. The authors quantitatively compared these ...[more]

PMID: 20472570

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Project description:We investigated whether brain arteriovenous malformation silent intralesional microhemorrhage, that is, asymptomatic bleeding in the nidal compartment, might serve as a marker for increased risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (ICH). We evaluated 2 markers to assess the occurrence of silent intralesional microhemorrhage: neuroradiological assessment of evidence of old hemorrhage-imaging evidence of bleeding before the outcome events-and hemosiderin positivity in hematoxylin and eosin-stained paraffin block sections.We identified cases from our brain arteriovenous malformation database with recorded neuroradiological data or available surgical paraffin blocks. Using 2 end points, index ICH or new ICH after diagnosis (censored at treatment, loss to follow-up, or death), we performed logistic or Cox regression to assess evidence of old hemorrhage and hemosiderin positivity adjusting for age, sex, deep-only venous drainage, maximal brain arteriovenous malformation size, deep location, and associated arterial aneurysms.Evidence of old hemorrhage was present in 6.5% (n=975) of patients and highly predictive of index ICH (P<0.001; OR, 3.97; 95% CI, 2.1-7.5) adjusting for other risk factors. In a multivariable model (n=643), evidence of old hemorrhage was an independent predictor of new ICH (hazard ratio, 3.53; 95% CI, 1.35-9.23; P=0.010). Hemosiderin positivity was found in 36.2% (29.6% in unruptured; 47.8% in ruptured; P=0.04) and associated with index ICH in univariate (OR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.03-4.61; P=0.042; n=127) and multivariable models (OR, 3.64; 95% CI, 1.11-12.00; P=0.034; n=79).The prevalence of silent intralesional microhemorrhage is high and there is evidence for an association with both index and subsequent ICH. Further development of means to detect silent intralesional microhemorrhage during brain arteriovenous malformation evaluation may present an opportunity to improve risk stratification, especially for unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations.

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Comparison of 2 approaches for determining the natural history risk of brain arteriovenous malformation rupture.

Publications

Comparison of 2 approaches for determining the natural history risk of brain arteriovenous malformation rupture.

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