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Evolutionary entropy determines invasion success in emergent epidemics.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Standard epidemiological theory claims that in structured populations competition between multiple pathogen strains is a deterministic process which is mediated by the basic reproduction number (R0) of the individual strains. A new theory based on analysis, simulation and empirical study challenges this predictor of success. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We show that the quantity R0 is a valid predictor in structured populations only when size is infinite. In this article we show that when population size is finite the dynamics of infection by multi-strain pathogens is a stochastic process whose outcome can be predicted by evolutionary entropy, S, an information theoretic measure which describes the uncertainty in the infectious age of an infected parent of a randomly chosen new infective. Evolutionary entropy characterises the demographic stability or robustness of the population of infectives. This statistical parameter determines the duration of infection and thus provides a quantitative index of the pathogenicity of a strain. Standard epidemiological theory based on R0 as a measure of selective advantage is the limit as the population size tends to infinity of the entropic selection theory. The standard model is an approximation to the entropic selection theory whose validity increases with population size. CONCLUSION: An epidemiological analysis based on entropy is shown to explain empirical observations regarding the emergence of less pathogenic strains of human influenza during the antigenic drift phase. Furthermore, we exploit the entropy perspective to discuss certain epidemiological patterns of the current H1N1 swine flu outbreak.

SUBMITTER: Rhodes CJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2944876 | biostudies-literature | 2010

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evolutionary entropy determines invasion success in emergent epidemics.

Rhodes Christopher J CJ Demetrius Lloyd L

PloS one 20100923 9

<h4>Background</h4>Standard epidemiological theory claims that in structured populations competition between multiple pathogen strains is a deterministic process which is mediated by the basic reproduction number (R0) of the individual strains. A new theory based on analysis, simulation and empirical study challenges this predictor of success.<h4>Principal findings</h4>We show that the quantity R0 is a valid predictor in structured populations only when size is infinite. In this article we show ...[more]

PMID: 20886082

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Project description:BackgroundHow the brain develops accurate models of the external world and generates appropriate behavioral responses is a vital question of widespread multidisciplinary interest. It is increasingly understood that brain signal variability-posited to enhance perception, facilitate flexible cognitive representations, and improve behavioral outcomes-plays an important role in neural and cognitive development. The ability to perceive, interpret, and respond to complex and dynamic social information is particularly critical for the development of adaptive learning and behavior. Social perception relies on oxytocin-regulated neural networks that emerge early in development.MethodsWe tested the hypothesis that individual differences in the endogenous oxytocinergic system early in life may influence social behavioral outcomes by regulating variability in brain signaling during social perception. In study 1, 55 infants provided a saliva sample at 5 months of age for analysis of individual differences in the oxytocinergic system and underwent electroencephalography (EEG) while listening to human vocalizations at 8 months of age for the assessment of brain signal variability. Infant behavior was assessed via parental report. In study 2, 60 infants provided a saliva sample and underwent EEG while viewing faces and objects and listening to human speech and water sounds at 4 months of age. Infant behavior was assessed via parental report and eye tracking.ResultsWe show in two independent infant samples that increased brain signal entropy during social perception is in part explained by an epigenetic modification to the oxytocin receptor gene (OXTR) and accounts for significant individual differences in social behavior in the first year of life. These results are measure-, context-, and modality-specific: entropy, not standard deviation, links OXTR methylation and infant behavior; entropy evoked during social perception specifically explains social behavior only; and only entropy evoked during social auditory perception predicts infant vocalization behavior.ConclusionsDemonstrating these associations in infancy is critical for elucidating the neurobiological mechanisms accounting for individual differences in cognition and behavior relevant to neurodevelopmental disorders. Our results suggest that an epigenetic modification to the oxytocin receptor gene and brain signal entropy are useful indicators of social development and may hold potential diagnostic, therapeutic, and prognostic value.

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Evolutionary entropy determines invasion success in emergent epidemics.

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Evolutionary entropy determines invasion success in emergent epidemics.

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