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Emergent trade-offs and selection for outbreak frequency in spatial epidemics.

ABSTRACT: Nonspatial theory on pathogen evolution generally predicts selection for maximal number of secondary infections, constrained only by supposed physiological trade-offs between pathogen infectiousness and virulence. Spread of diseases in human populations can, however, exhibit large scale patterns, underlining the need for spatially explicit approaches to pathogen evolution. Here, we show, in a spatial model where all pathogen traits are allowed to evolve independently, that evolutionary trajectories follow a single relationship between transmission and clearance. This trade-off relation is an emergent system property, as opposed to being a property of pathogen physiology, and maximizes outbreak frequency instead of the number of secondary infections. We conclude that spatial pattern formation in contact networks can act to link infectiousness and clearance during pathogen evolution in the absence of any physiological trade-off. Selection for outbreak frequency offers an explanation for the evolution of pathogens that cause mild but frequent infections.

SUBMITTER: van Ballegooijen WM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC539754 | biostudies-literature | 2004 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Emergent trade-offs and selection for outbreak frequency in spatial epidemics.

van Ballegooijen W Marijn WM Boerlijst Maarten C MC

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20041216 52

Nonspatial theory on pathogen evolution generally predicts selection for maximal number of secondary infections, constrained only by supposed physiological trade-offs between pathogen infectiousness and virulence. Spread of diseases in human populations can, however, exhibit large scale patterns, underlining the need for spatially explicit approaches to pathogen evolution. Here, we show, in a spatial model where all pathogen traits are allowed to evolve independently, that evolutionary trajector ...[more]

PMID: 15604150

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Project description:Animals select resources to maximize fitness but associated costs and benefits are spatially and temporally variable. Differences in wetland management influence resource availability for ducks and mortality risk from duck hunting. The local distribution of the Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) is affected by this resource heterogeneity and variable risk from hunting. Regional conservation strategies primarily focus on how waterfowl distributions are affected by food resources during the nonbreeding season. To test if Mallard resource selection was related to the abundance of resources, risks, or a combination, we studied resource selection of adult female Mallards during autumn and winter. We developed a digital spatial layer for Lake St. Clair, Ontario, Canada, that classified resources important to Mallards and assigned these resources a risk level based on ownership type and presumed disturbance from hunting. We monitored 59 individuals with GPS back-pack transmitters prior to, during, and after the hunting season and used discrete choice modeling to generate diurnal and nocturnal resource selection estimates. The model that classified available resources and presumed risk best explained Mallard resource selection strategies. Resource selection varied within and among seasons. Ducks selected for federal, state and private managed wetland complexes that provided an intermediate or relatively greater amount of refuge and foraging options than public hunting areas. Across all diel periods and seasons, there was selection for federally managed marshes and private supplemental feeding refuges that prohibited hunting. Mallard resource selection demonstrated trade-offs related to the management of mortality risk, anthropogenic disturbances, and foraging opportunities. Understanding how waterfowl respond to heterogeneous landscapes of resources and risks can inform regional conservation strategies related to waterfowl distribution during the nonbreeding season.

Dataset Information

Emergent trade-offs and selection for outbreak frequency in spatial epidemics.

Publications

Emergent trade-offs and selection for outbreak frequency in spatial epidemics.

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