Dataset Information

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and its impact on HIV-1 transmission in South Africa.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Mathematical modelers have given little attention to the question of how pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) may impact on a generalized national HIV epidemic and its cost-effectiveness, in the context of control strategies such as condom use promotion and expanding ART programs.

Methodology/principal findings

We use an age- and gender-structured model of the generalized HIV epidemic in South Africa to investigate the potential impact of PrEP in averting new infections. The model utilizes age-structured mortality, fertility, partnership and condom use data to model the spread of HIV and the shift of peak prevalence to older age groups. The model shows that universal PrEP coverage would have to be impractically high to have a significant effect on incidence reduction while ART coverage expands. PrEP targeted to 15-35-year-old women would avert 10%-25% (resp. 13%-28%) of infections in this group and 5%-12% (resp. 7%-16%) of all infections in the period 2014-2025 if baseline incidence is 0.5% per year at 2025 (resp. 0.8% per year at 2025). The cost would be $12,500-$20,000 per infection averted, depending on the level of ART coverage and baseline incidence. An optimistic scenario of 30%-60% PrEP coverage, efficacy of at least 90%, no behavior change among PrEP users and ART coverage less than three times its 2010 levels is required to achieve this result. Targeting PrEP to 25-35-year-old women (at highest risk of infection) improves impact and cost-effectiveness marginally. Relatively low levels of condom substitution (e.g., 30%) do not nullify the efficacy of PrEP, but reduces cost-effectiveness by 35%-40%.

Conclusions/significance

PrEP can avert as many as 30% of new infections in targeted age groups of women at highest risk of infection. The cost-effectiveness of PrEP relative to ART decreases rapidly as ART coverage increases beyond three times its coverage in 2010, after which the ART program would provide coverage to more than 65% of HIV(+) individuals. To have a high relative cost-effective impact on reducing infections in generalized epidemics, PrEP must utilize a window of opportunity until ART has been scaled up beyond this level.

SUBMITTER: Pretorius C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2974638 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and its impact on HIV-1 transmission in South Africa.

Pretorius Carel C Stover John J Bollinger Lori L Bacaër Nicolas N Williams Brian B

PloS one 20101105 11

<h4>Background</h4>Mathematical modelers have given little attention to the question of how pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) may impact on a generalized national HIV epidemic and its cost-effectiveness, in the context of control strategies such as condom use promotion and expanding ART programs.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>We use an age- and gender-structured model of the generalized HIV epidemic in South Africa to investigate the potential impact of PrEP in averting new infections. The ...[more]

PMID: 21079767

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Project description:BackgroundHeterosexual men in South Africa are a large key population to exposure to HIV, yet preferences for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among this population have not, to date, been investigated in the literature. This paper aims to explore HIV prevention preferences among heterosexual men in urban South Africa, as well as to examine the demand and characteristics of men who favour long-acting injectable (LAI) PrEP over condoms and oral PrEP.MethodsData were collected among 178 self-reported HIV-negative heterosexual men, who were given example products and information before being asked which they preferred. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyse which characteristics were associated with product choice.Results48% (n = 85) of participants preferred LAI PrEP, while 33% (n = 58) and 20% (n = 35) chose oral PrEP and condoms respectively. Having children (marginal effect = 0.22; 95% CI [0.01, 0.44]) or having higher risk attitude scores (marginal effect = 0.03; 95% CI [0.01, 0.06]) was significantly associated with a choice of LAI PrEP, while those who had unprotected anal intercourse (marginal effect = - 0.42; 95% CI [- 0.57, - 0.27]) and those who were concerned with protection against other sexually transmitted infections over HIV (marginal effect = - 0.42; 95% CI [- 0.60, - 0.24]) appeared less likely to prefer LAI PrEP.ConclusionsThe results suggested a relatively high demand and theoretical acceptability for LAI PrEP among heterosexual men in urban South Africa, but there appeared to be fewer distinct predictors for the willingness to use LAI PrEP compared to studies conducted among gay and bisexual men and women. Nevertheless, the findings contribute to the mapping of the demand and determinants of heterosexual men's preferences for novel antiretroviral-based prevention in sub-Saharan Africa, and the data could aid in the differentiated design of future HIV prevention strategies using LAI PrEP in conjunction with other methods.

Project description:BackgroundExpanded HIV prevention options are needed to increase uptake of HIV prevention among women, especially in generalized epidemics. As the dapivirine vaginal ring moves forward through regulatory review and open-label extension studies, the potential public health impact and cost-effectiveness of this new prevention method are not fully known. We used mathematical modeling to explore the impact and cost-effectiveness of the ring in different implementation scenarios alongside scale-up of other HIV prevention interventions. Given the knowledge gaps about key factors influencing the ring's implementation, including potential uptake and delivery costs, we engaged in a stakeholder consultation process to elicit plausible parameter ranges and explored scenarios to identify the possible range of impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness.Methods and findingsWe used the Goals model to simulate scenarios of oral and ring pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) implementation among female sex workers and among other women ≤21 years or >21 years with multiple male partners, in Kenya, South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. In these scenarios, we varied antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, dapivirine ring coverage and ring effectiveness (encompassing efficacy and adherence) by risk group. Following discussions with stakeholders, the maximum level of PrEP coverage (oral and/or ring) considered in each country was equal to modern contraception use minus condom use in the two age groups. We assessed results for 18 years, from 2018 to 2035. In South Africa, for example, the HIV infections averted by PrEP (ring plus oral PrEP) ranged from 310,000 under the highest-impact scenario (including ART held constant at 2017 levels, high ring coverage, and 85% ring effectiveness) to 55,000 under the lowest-impact scenario (including ART reaching the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets by 2020, low ring coverage, and 30% ring effectiveness). This represented a range of 6.4% to 2.2% of new HIV infections averted. Given our assumptions, the addition of the ring results in 11% to 132% more impact than oral PrEP alone. The cost per HIV infection averted for the ring ranged from US$13,000 to US$121,000.ConclusionsThis analysis offers a wide range of scenarios given the considerable uncertainty over ring uptake, consistency of use, and effectiveness, as well as HIV testing, prevention, and treatment use over the next two decades. This could help inform donors and implementers as they decide where to allocate resources in order to maximize the impact of the dapivirine ring in light of funding and implementation constraints. Better understanding of the cost and potential uptake of the intervention would improve our ability to estimate its cost-effectiveness and assess where it can have the most impact.

Project description:BackgroundPre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention is highly effective, but disparities in PrEP access remain considerable, particularly among Black and Latino men who have sex with men (MSM). To address this, the University of Miami Mobile PrEP Program was created, offering mobile HIV prevention/PrEP services in areas throughout South Florida where HIV incidence is high and PrEP access is geographically limited. Using a community-centered participatory approach, the program strategized and executed expansion into the Liberty City neighborhood of Miami. This study qualitatively assessed factors affecting Mobile PrEP implementation as perceived by community stakeholders, clients, and program staff.MethodsForty-one in-depth interviews were conducted with 21 Mobile PrEP clients, 10 key informants from local health organizations, and 10 program staff. Interview questions queried perceived organizational and positional barriers and facilitators to mobile clinic implementation. Service satisfaction, setting preferences, social factors, and likelihood of recommending Mobile PrEP were also assessed. A thematic content analysis was performed using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) taxonomy as the guiding constructs for the analysis.ResultsParticipant statements indicated that providing no-cost services, convenient location, program-covered rideshares, individualized patient navigation, and a community-centric approach to patient care, which included staff members with shared lived experiences to increase positive interactions and renewed trust among poorly served communities, were facilitators of PrEP access and intervention uptake. The importance of program familiarization with the community before implementation, particularly for Black and African American communities, who may experience unique barriers to accessing sexual healthcare was strongly emphasized by participants.ConclusionsThe Mobile PrEP intervention was found to be an acceptable and accessible mode of HIV/STI preventive care. The importance of pre-implementation community engagement and preparation is emphasized. Future research is needed to refine understanding of the intervention's components and evaluate implementation determinants in other highly impacted neighborhoods.

Dataset Information

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and its impact on HIV-1 transmission in South Africa.

Background

Methodology/principal findings

Conclusions/significance

Publications

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and its impact on HIV-1 transmission in South Africa.

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