Dataset Information

Cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in preventing HIV-1 infections in rural Zambia: a modeling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir and emtricitabine effectively prevents new HIV infections. The optimal scenario for implementing PrEP where most infections are averted at the lowest cost is unknown. We determined the impact of different PrEP strategies on averting new infections, prevalence, drug resistance and cost-effectiveness in Macha, a rural setting in Zambia.

Methods

A deterministic mathematical model of HIV transmission was constructed using data from the Macha epidemic (antenatal prevalence 7.7%). Antiretroviral therapy is started at CD4<350 cells/mm(3). We compared the number of infections averted, cost-effectiveness, and potential emergence of drug resistance of two ends of the prioritization spectrum: prioritizing PrEP to half of the most sexually active individuals (5-15% of the total population), versus randomly putting 40-60% of the total population on PrEP.

Results

Prioritizing PrEP to individuals with the highest sexual activity resulted in more infections averted than a non-prioritized strategy over ten years (31% and 23% reduction in new infections respectively), and also a lower HIV prevalence after ten years (5.7%, 6.4% respectively). The strategy was very cost-effective at $323 per quality adjusted life year gained and appeared to be both less costly and more effective than the non-prioritized strategy. The prevalence of drug resistance due to PrEP was as high as 11.6% when all assumed breakthrough infections resulted in resistance, and as low as 1.3% when 10% of breakthrough infections resulted in resistance in both our prioritized and non-prioritized scenarios.

Conclusions

Even in settings with low test rates and treatment retention, the use of PrEP can still be a useful strategy in averting infections. Our model has shown that PrEP is a cost-effective strategy for reducing HIV incidence, even when adherence is suboptimal and prioritization is imperfect.

SUBMITTER: Nichols BE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3601101 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in preventing HIV-1 infections in rural Zambia: a modeling study.

Nichols Brooke E BE Boucher Charles A B CA van Dijk Janneke H JH Thuma Phil E PE Nouwen Jan L JL Baltussen Rob R van de Wijgert Janneke J Sloot Peter M A PM van de Vijver David A M C DA

PloS one 20130318 3

<h4>Background</h4>Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir and emtricitabine effectively prevents new HIV infections. The optimal scenario for implementing PrEP where most infections are averted at the lowest cost is unknown. We determined the impact of different PrEP strategies on averting new infections, prevalence, drug resistance and cost-effectiveness in Macha, a rural setting in Zambia.<h4>Methods</h4>A deterministic mathematical model of HIV transmission was constructed using data ...[more]

PMID: 23527217

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundMathematical modelers have given little attention to the question of how pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) may impact on a generalized national HIV epidemic and its cost-effectiveness, in the context of control strategies such as condom use promotion and expanding ART programs.Methodology/principal findingsWe use an age- and gender-structured model of the generalized HIV epidemic in South Africa to investigate the potential impact of PrEP in averting new infections. The model utilizes age-structured mortality, fertility, partnership and condom use data to model the spread of HIV and the shift of peak prevalence to older age groups. The model shows that universal PrEP coverage would have to be impractically high to have a significant effect on incidence reduction while ART coverage expands. PrEP targeted to 15-35-year-old women would avert 10%-25% (resp. 13%-28%) of infections in this group and 5%-12% (resp. 7%-16%) of all infections in the period 2014-2025 if baseline incidence is 0.5% per year at 2025 (resp. 0.8% per year at 2025). The cost would be $12,500-$20,000 per infection averted, depending on the level of ART coverage and baseline incidence. An optimistic scenario of 30%-60% PrEP coverage, efficacy of at least 90%, no behavior change among PrEP users and ART coverage less than three times its 2010 levels is required to achieve this result. Targeting PrEP to 25-35-year-old women (at highest risk of infection) improves impact and cost-effectiveness marginally. Relatively low levels of condom substitution (e.g., 30%) do not nullify the efficacy of PrEP, but reduces cost-effectiveness by 35%-40%.Conclusions/significancePrEP can avert as many as 30% of new infections in targeted age groups of women at highest risk of infection. The cost-effectiveness of PrEP relative to ART decreases rapidly as ART coverage increases beyond three times its coverage in 2010, after which the ART program would provide coverage to more than 65% of HIV(+) individuals. To have a high relative cost-effective impact on reducing infections in generalized epidemics, PrEP must utilize a window of opportunity until ART has been scaled up beyond this level.

Project description:Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has emerged as a promising strategy for preventing the transmission of HIV. Although only one formulation is currently approved for PrEP, research into both new compounds and new delivery systems for PrEP regimens offer intriguing challenges from the perspective of pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modeling. This review aims to provide an overview the current modeling landscape for HIV PrEP, focused on PK/PD and QSP models relating to antiretroviral agents. Both current PrEP treatments and new compounds that show promise as PrEP agents are highlighted, as well as models of uncommon administration routes, predictions based on models of mechanism of action and viral dynamics, and issues related to adherence to therapy. The spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains one of the foremost global health concerns. In the absence of a vaccine, other prophylactic strategies have been developed to prevent HIV transmission. One approach, known as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), allows HIV-negative individuals who are at high risk of exposure to the virus, be it through an HIV-positive sexual partner or through the shared use of drug injection equipment, to substantially reduce the risk of developing an HIV infection. PrEP is a relatively recent approach to combating the HIV epidemic, with the only currently approved treatment being Truvada, a daily oral antiretroviral (ARV) therapy initially indicated in the treatment of active HIV-1 infections, but approved for HIV PrEP in 2012. Although PrEP therapy has consistently demonstrated high efficacy in preventing HIV infection, this efficacy is dependent on patient adherence to the prescribed treatment regimen. This can present a significant problem in low- and middle-income countries, which may lack the infrastructure to provide sufficient access to PrEP medication to maintain daily dosing regimens. Furthermore, while the conventional approach has generally been to advocate for continuous administration akin to regimens used for viral suppression in infected patients, there has been some discussion of whether a better treatment paradigm might be to push for PrEP therapy primarily during those known periods of heightened exposure risk, while relying on post-exposure prophylaxis regimens to prevent infection after unanticipated exposures during low-risk periods. These considerations have led to a push for the development of long-duration and on-demand PrEP formulations, including subdermal and subcutaneous implants, slow-release intramuscular depot injections, vaginal and rectal antimicrobial gels, and intravaginal rings and dissolving films. PrEP therapy is a quickly evolving field, with a variety of antiretroviral compounds and formulations under investigation. This review aims to report on notable drugs and formulations from a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modeling perspective. Given the nature of PrEP as a preventive therapy designed for long-term use, clinical trials for PrEP therapies can last for months or even years, particularly in the case of long-duration formulations. Furthermore, in contrast to antiretroviral trials in infected patients, pharmacodynamic endpoints in PrEP therapies are difficult to quantify, as the primary endpoint for efficacy is generally the rate of seroconversion. Computational modeling approaches offer flexible and powerful tools to provide insight into drug behavior in clinical settings, and can ultimately reduce the time, expense, and patient burden incurred in the development of PrEP therapies.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) provision is a priority intervention for high HIV prevalence settings and populations at substantial risk of HIV acquisition. This mathematical modelling analysis estimated the impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of scaling up oral PrEP in 13 countries. METHODS:We projected the impact and cost-effectiveness of oral PrEP between 2018 and 2030 using a combination of the Incidence Patterns Model and the Goals model. We created four PrEP rollout scenarios involving three priority populations-female sex workers (FSWs), serodiscordant couples (SDCs) and adolescent girls and young women (AGYW)-both with and without geographic prioritization. We applied the model to 13 countries (Eswatini, Ethiopia, Haiti, Kenya, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe). The base case assumed achievement of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 90-90-90 antiretroviral therapy targets, 90% male circumcision coverage by 2020 and 90% efficacy and adherence levels for oral PrEP. RESULTS:In the scenarios we examined, oral PrEP averted 3% to 8% of HIV infections across the 13 countries between 2018 and 2030. For all but three countries, more than 50% of the HIV infections averted by oral PrEP in the scenarios we examined could be obtained by rollout to FSWs and SDCs alone. For several countries, expanding oral PrEP to include medium-risk AGYW in all regions greatly increased the impact. The efficiency and impact benefits of geographic prioritization of rollout to AGYW varied across countries. Variations in cost-effectiveness across countries reflected differences in HIV incidence and expected variations in unit cost. For most countries, rolling out oral PrEP to FSWs, SDCs and geographically prioritized AGYW was not projected to have a substantial impact on the supply chain for antiretroviral drugs. CONCLUSIONS:These modelling results can inform prioritization, target-setting and other decisions related to oral PrEP scale-up within combination prevention programmes. We caution against extensive use given limitations in cost data and implementation approaches. This analysis highlights some of the immediate challenges facing countries-for example, trade-offs between overall impact and cost-effectiveness-and emphasizes the need to improve data availability and risk assessment tools to help countries make informed decisions.

Dataset Information

Cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in preventing HIV-1 infections in rural Zambia: a modeling study.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in preventing HIV-1 infections in rural Zambia: a modeling study.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets