Dataset Information

Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa using the hydrology, entomology and malaria transmission simulator (HYDREMATS).

ABSTRACT:

Background

Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics.

Methods

HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future.

Results

Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.

Conclusions

HYDREMATS can be used to make reasonable predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, and provide early warnings of the potential for malaria epidemics in Africa.

SUBMITTER: Yamana TK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2989331 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa using the hydrology, entomology and malaria transmission simulator (HYDREMATS).

Yamana Teresa K TK Eltahir Elfatih A B EA

Malaria journal 20101112

<h4>Background</h4>Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics.<h4>Methods</h4>HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial cap ...[more]

PMID: 21073726

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Understanding the contribution of outdoor-resting Anopheles mosquitoes to residual malaria transmission is important in terms of scaling up vector control towards malaria elimination in South Africa. The aim of this project was to assess the potential role of Anopheles parensis and other Anopheles species in residual malaria transmission, using sentinel surveillance sites in the uMkhanyakude District of northern KwaZulu-Natal Province. METHODS:Monthly vector surveillance was conducted at the sentinel sites from January 2017 to May 2018. Outdoor-placed clay pot resting traps were used to collect male and female adult Anopheles mosquitoes. All Anopheles gambiae complex and Anopheles funestus group specimens collected were identified to species and all females were screened for Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite protein (CSP) by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Samples showing infectivity for P. falciparum were further verified by a nested PCR and subsequent DNA sequence analysis. RESULTS:From a sample of 491 anophelines, Anopheles arabiensis (n?=?228) and An. parensis (n?=?194) were the most abundant. Other species collected included Anopheles merus (n?=11), Anopheles quadriannulatus (n?=?10), Anopheles leesoni (n?=?29), Anopheles rivulorum (n?=18), and Anopheles vaneedeni (n?=1). Of the 317 female specimens screened for P. falciparum CSP, one Anopheles arabiensis and one An. parensis showed positive by ELISA and Plasmodium nested PCR. For the An. parensis specimen, confirmation of its species identity was based on sequence analysis of the ITS2 region, and the presence of P. falciparum DNA was further confirmed by sequence analysis. CONCLUSIONS:Anopheles parensis is a potential vector of malaria in South Africa although its contribution to transmission is likely to be minimal at best owing to its strong zoophilic tendency. By contrast, An. arabiensis is a major vector that is primarily responsible for the bulk of residual malaria transmission in South Africa. As all recently collected sporozoite-positive Anopheles mosquitoes were found in outdoor-placed resting traps, it is necessary to introduce interventions that can be used to control outdoor-resting vector populations while maintaining the efficacy of South Africa's indoor house spraying operations.

Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding the age patterns of disease is necessary to target interventions to maximise cost-effective impact. New malaria chemoprevention and vaccine initiatives target young children attending routine immunisation services. Here we explore the relationships between age and severity of malaria hospitalisation versus malaria transmission intensity.MethodsClinical data from 21 surveillance hospitals in East Africa were reviewed. Malaria admissions aged 1 month to 14 years from discrete administrative areas since 2006 were identified. Each site-time period was matched to a model estimated community-based age-corrected parasite prevalence to provide predictions of prevalence in childhood (PfPR2-10). Admission with all-cause malaria, severe malaria anaemia (SMA), respiratory distress (RD) and cerebral malaria (CM) were analysed as means and predicted probabilities from Bayesian generalised mixed models.Results52,684 malaria admissions aged 1 month to 14 years were described at 21 hospitals from 49 site-time locations where PfPR2-10 varied from < 1 to 48.7%. Twelve site-time periods were described as low transmission (PfPR2-10 < 5%), five low-moderate transmission (PfPR2-10 5-9%), 20 moderate transmission (PfPR2-10 10-29%) and 12 high transmission (PfPR2-10 ≥ 30%). The majority of malaria admissions were below 5 years of age (69-85%) and rare among children aged 10-14 years (0.7-5.4%) across all transmission settings. The mean age of all-cause malaria hospitalisation was 49.5 months (95% CI 45.1, 55.4) under low transmission compared with 34.1 months (95% CI 30.4, 38.3) at high transmission, with similar trends for each severe malaria phenotype. CM presented among older children at a mean of 48.7 months compared with 39.0 months and 33.7 months for SMA and RD, respectively. In moderate and high transmission settings, 34% and 42% of the children were aged between 2 and 23 months and so within the age range targeted by chemoprevention or vaccines.ConclusionsTargeting chemoprevention or vaccination programmes to areas where community-based parasite prevalence is ≥10% is likely to match the age ranges covered by interventions (e.g. intermittent presumptive treatment in infancy to children aged 2-23 months and current vaccine age eligibility and duration of efficacy) and the age ranges of highest disease burden.

Dataset Information

Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa using the hydrology, entomology and malaria transmission simulator (HYDREMATS).

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa using the hydrology, entomology and malaria transmission simulator (HYDREMATS).

Similar Datasets

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