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On epidemic modeling in real time: An application to the 2009 Novel A (H1N1) influenza outbreak in Canada.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Management of emerging infectious diseases such as the 2009 influenza pandemic A (H1N1) poses great challenges for real-time mathematical modeling of disease transmission due to limited information on disease natural history and epidemiology, stochastic variation in the course of epidemics, and changing case definitions and surveillance practices. FINDINGS: The Richards model and its variants are used to fit the cumulative epidemic curve for laboratory-confirmed pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) infections in Canada, made available by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC). The model is used to obtain estimates for turning points in the initial outbreak, the basic reproductive number (R0), and for expected final outbreak size in the absence of interventions. Confirmed case data were used to construct a best-fit 2-phase model with three turning points. R0 was estimated to be 1.30 (95% CI 1.12-1.47) for the first phase (April 1 to May 4) and 1.35 (95% CI 1.16-1.54) for the second phase (May 4 to June 19). Hospitalization data were also used to fit a 1-phase model with R0 = 1.35 (1.20-1.49) and a single turning point of June 11. CONCLUSIONS: Application of the Richards model to Canadian pH1N1 data shows that detection of turning points is affected by the quality of data available at the time of data usage. Using a Richards model, robust estimates of R0 were obtained approximately one month after the initial outbreak in the case of 2009 A (H1N1) in Canada.

SUBMITTER: Hsieh YH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2989981 | biostudies-literature | 2010

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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On epidemic modeling in real time: An application to the 2009 Novel A (H1N1) influenza outbreak in Canada.

Hsieh Ying-Hen YH Fisman David N DN Wu Jianhong J

BMC research notes 20101105

<h4>Background</h4>Management of emerging infectious diseases such as the 2009 influenza pandemic A (H1N1) poses great challenges for real-time mathematical modeling of disease transmission due to limited information on disease natural history and epidemiology, stochastic variation in the course of epidemics, and changing case definitions and surveillance practices.<h4>Findings</h4>The Richards model and its variants are used to fit the cumulative epidemic curve for laboratory-confirmed pandemic ...[more]

PMID: 21050494

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Project description:BackgroundIn April 2009, a novel triple-reassortant swine influenza A H1N1 virus ("A/H1N1pdm"; also known as SOIV) was detected and spread globally as the first influenza pandemic of the 21(st) century. Sequencing has since been conducted at an unprecedented rate globally in order to monitor the diversification of this emergent virus and to track mutations that may affect virus behavior.Methodology/principal findingsBy Sanger sequencing, we determined consensus whole-genome sequences for A/H1N1pdm viruses sampled nationwide in Canada over 33 weeks during the 2009 first and second pandemic waves. A total of 235 virus genomes sampled from unique subjects were analyzed, providing insight into the temporal and spatial trajectory of A/H1N1pdm lineages within Canada. Three clades (2, 3, and 7) were identifiable within the first two weeks of A/H1N1pdm appearance, with clades 5 and 6 appearing thereafter; further diversification was not apparent. Only two viral sites displayed evidence of adaptive evolution, located in hemagglutinin (HA) corresponding to D222 in the HA receptor-binding site, and to E374 at HA2-subunit position 47. Among the Canadian sampled viruses, we observed notable genetic diversity (1.47 x 10?³ amino acid substitutions per site) in the gene encoding PB1, particularly within the viral genomic RNA (vRNA)-binding domain (residues 493-757). This genome data set supports the conclusion that A/H1N1pdm is evolving but not excessively relative to other H1N1 influenza A viruses. Entropy analysis was used to investigate whether any mutated A/H1N1pdm protein residues were associated with infection severity; however no virus genotypes were observed to trend with infection severity. One virus that harboured heterozygote coding mutations, including PB2 D567D/G, was attributed to a severe and potentially mixed infection; yet the functional significance of this PB2 mutation remains unknown.Conclusions/significanceThese findings contribute to enhanced understanding of Influenza A/H1N1pdm viral dynamics.

Dataset Information

On epidemic modeling in real time: An application to the 2009 Novel A (H1N1) influenza outbreak in Canada.

Publications

On epidemic modeling in real time: An application to the 2009 Novel A (H1N1) influenza outbreak in Canada.

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