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Distribution of 10-year and lifetime predicted risks for cardiovascular disease in US adults: findings from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003 to 2006.

ABSTRACT: National guidelines for primary prevention suggest consideration of lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease in addition to 10-year risk, but it is currently unknown how many US adults would be identified as having low short-term but high lifetime predicted risk if stepwise stratification were used.We included 6329 cardiovascular disease-free and nonpregnant individuals ages 20 to 79 years, representing approximately 156 million US adults, from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003 to 2004 and 2005 to 2006. We assigned 10-year and lifetime predicted risks to stratify participants into 3 groups: low 10-year (<10%)/low lifetime (<39%) predicted risk, low 10-year (<10%)/high lifetime (> or = 39%) predicted risk, and high 10-year (> or = 10%) predicted risk or diagnosed diabetes. The majority of US adults (56%, or 87 million individuals) are at low short-term but high lifetime predicted risk for cardiovascular disease. Twenty-six percent (41 million adults) are at low short-term and low lifetime predicted risk, and only 18% (28 million individuals) are at high short-term predicted risk. The addition of lifetime risk estimation to 10-year risk estimation identifies higher-risk women and younger men in particular.Whereas 82% of US adults are at low short-term risk, two thirds of this group, or 87 million people, are at high lifetime predicted risk for cardiovascular disease. These results provide support for use of a stepwise stratification system aimed at improving risk communication, and they provide a baseline for public health efforts aimed at increasing the proportion of Americans with low short-term and low lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease.

SUBMITTER: Marma AK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3058791 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Distribution of 10-year and lifetime predicted risks for cardiovascular disease in US adults: findings from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003 to 2006.

Marma Amanda K AK Berry Jarett D JD Ning Hongyan H Persell Stephen D SD Lloyd-Jones Donald M DM

Circulation. Cardiovascular quality and outcomes 20091116 1

<h4>Background</h4>National guidelines for primary prevention suggest consideration of lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease in addition to 10-year risk, but it is currently unknown how many US adults would be identified as having low short-term but high lifetime predicted risk if stepwise stratification were used.<h4>Methods and results</h4>We included 6329 cardiovascular disease-free and nonpregnant individuals ages 20 to 79 years, representing approximately 156 million US adults, from the ...[more]

PMID: 20123666

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Project description:Animal models suggest a protective role of antioxidants against the adverse effect of di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) on insulin resistance. However, no epidemiologic study has examined the effects observed in the animal model. We conduct a study to examine associations of urinary concentrations of phthalate metabolites (individually and as a mixture) with insulin resistance, along with potential effect modification by serum antioxidant concentrations. This cross-sectional study included 1605 participants (51% males) aged 12-85 from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (2003-2006). Urinary concentrations of 9 phthalate metabolites were measured from spot urine samples. Antioxidant (vitamin A, C, E, and carotenoids) concentrations were measured from a fasting serum sample. We used Bayesian Kernel Machine Regression (BKMR) to evaluate associations between phthalate metabolite mixtures and insulin resistance, and examined whether serum antioxidant levels modified these associations, while accounting for the correlations of multiple concurrent exposures. A change in urinary ΣDEHP concentrations from the 25th to the 75th percentile was associated with a higher log HOMA-IR of 0.07 (95% CI = 0.01, 0.14) (4.85% increase in HOMA-IR). In contrast, the same change in urinary monoethyl phthalate (MEP) was associated with a lower HOMA-IR of -0.07 (95% CI = -0.14, -0.02) (6.68% decrease in HOMA-IR). The positive association between ΣDEHP and HOMA-IR became weaker at higher concentrations of serum β-carotene. The relationship between MEP and HOMA-IR, however, was not modified by the serum antioxidants examined. The remaining phthalate metabolites were unrelated to HOMA-IR. In this cross-sectional study, the positive association between DEHP exposure and insulin resistance weakened among participants with higher concentrations of serum β-carotene. As this is the first human report on the protective role of serum β-carotene on DEHP induced insulin resistance, future studies are needed.

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Dataset Information

Distribution of 10-year and lifetime predicted risks for cardiovascular disease in US adults: findings from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003 to 2006.

Publications

Distribution of 10-year and lifetime predicted risks for cardiovascular disease in US adults: findings from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003 to 2006.

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