A quantitative analysis of transmission efficiency versus intensity for malaria.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Smith DL
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3065713 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Substantial development assistance has been directed towards reducing the high malaria burden in Malawi over the past decade. We assessed changes in transmission over this period of malaria control scale-up by compiling community Plasmodium falciparum rate (PfPR) data during 2000-2011 and used model-based geostatistical methods to predict mean PfPR2-10 in 2000, 2005, and 2010. In addition, we calculated population-adjusted prevalences and populations at risk by district to inform malaria control program priority setting. The national population-adjusted PfPR2-10 was 37% in 2010, and we found no evidence of change over this period of scale-up. The entire population of Malawi is under meso-endemic transmission risk, with those in districts along the shore of Lake Malawi and Shire River Valley under highest risk. The lack of change in prevalence confirms modeling predictions that when compared with lower transmission, prevalence reductions in high transmission settings require greater investment and longer time scales.
| S-EPMC3820324 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding the age patterns of disease is necessary to target interventions to maximise cost-effective impact. New malaria chemoprevention and vaccine initiatives target young children attending routine immunisation services. Here we explore the relationships between age and severity of malaria hospitalisation versus malaria transmission intensity.MethodsClinical data from 21 surveillance hospitals in East Africa were reviewed. Malaria admissions aged 1 month to 14 years from discrete administrative areas since 2006 were identified. Each site-time period was matched to a model estimated community-based age-corrected parasite prevalence to provide predictions of prevalence in childhood (PfPR2-10). Admission with all-cause malaria, severe malaria anaemia (SMA), respiratory distress (RD) and cerebral malaria (CM) were analysed as means and predicted probabilities from Bayesian generalised mixed models.Results52,684 malaria admissions aged 1 month to 14 years were described at 21 hospitals from 49 site-time locations where PfPR2-10 varied from < 1 to 48.7%. Twelve site-time periods were described as low transmission (PfPR2-10 < 5%), five low-moderate transmission (PfPR2-10 5-9%), 20 moderate transmission (PfPR2-10 10-29%) and 12 high transmission (PfPR2-10 ≥ 30%). The majority of malaria admissions were below 5 years of age (69-85%) and rare among children aged 10-14 years (0.7-5.4%) across all transmission settings. The mean age of all-cause malaria hospitalisation was 49.5 months (95% CI 45.1, 55.4) under low transmission compared with 34.1 months (95% CI 30.4, 38.3) at high transmission, with similar trends for each severe malaria phenotype. CM presented among older children at a mean of 48.7 months compared with 39.0 months and 33.7 months for SMA and RD, respectively. In moderate and high transmission settings, 34% and 42% of the children were aged between 2 and 23 months and so within the age range targeted by chemoprevention or vaccines.ConclusionsTargeting chemoprevention or vaccination programmes to areas where community-based parasite prevalence is ≥10% is likely to match the age ranges covered by interventions (e.g. intermittent presumptive treatment in infancy to children aged 2-23 months and current vaccine age eligibility and duration of efficacy) and the age ranges of highest disease burden.
| S-EPMC8793189 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The efficiency of malaria transmission between human and mosquito has been shown to be influenced by many factors in the laboratory, although their impact in the field and how this changes with disease endemicity are unknown. Here we estimate how human-mosquito transmission changed as malaria was controlled in Dielmo, Senegal. Mathematical models were fit to data collected between 1990 and the start of vector control in 2008. Results show that asexual parasite slide prevalence in humans has reduced from 70 to 20%, but that the proportion of infectious mosquitoes has remained roughly constant. Evidence suggests that this is due to an increase in transmission efficiency caused by a rise in gametocyte densities, although the uneven distribution of mosquito bites between hosts could also contribute. The resilience of mosquito infection to changes in endemicity will have important implications for planning disease control, and the development and deployment of transmission-reducing interventions.
| S-EPMC4309425 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Introduction: Plasmodium falciparum induced antibodies are key components of anti-malarial immunity in malaria endemic areas, but their antigen targets can be polymorphic. Induction of a high proportion of strain-specific antibodies will limit the recognition of a broad diversity of parasite strains by these responses. There are indications that circulating parasite diversity varies with malaria transmission intensity, and this may affect the specificity of elicited anti-malarial antibodies. This study therefore assessed the effect of varying malaria transmission patterns on the specificity of elicited antibody responses and to identify possible antibody correlates of naturally acquired immunity to malaria in children in an area of Ghana with seasonal malaria transmission.Methods: This retrospective study utilized plasma samples collected longitudinally at six time points from children aged one to five years. Multiplex assays were used to measure antibody levels against four P. falciparum AMA 1 variants (from the 3D7, FVO, HB3 and CAMP parasite strains) and the 3D7 variant of the EBA 175 region II antigen and the levels compared between symptomatic and asymptomatic children. The relative proportions of cross-reactive and strain-specific antibodies against the four AMA 1 variants per sampling time point were assessed by Bland-Altman plots. The levels of antibodies against allelic AMA1 variants, measured by singleplex and multiplex luminex assays, were also compared.Results: The data show that increased transmission intensity is associated with higher levels of cross-reactive antibody responses, most likely a result of a greater proportion of multiple parasite clone infections during the high transmission period. Anti-AMA1 antibodies were however associated with a history of infection rather than protection in this age group.Conclusion: The data contribute to understanding the underlying mechanism of the acquisition of strain-transcending antibody immunity following repeated exposure to diverse parasite strains.
| S-EPMC5612719 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The goal of OOCYSTOP is based on an innovative concept to block malaria transmission by development of new drugs that will be delivered (1) to oocysts in infected mosquitoes and (2) to early stages in human infection by the sporozoite
2023-02-28 | MSV000091377 | MassIVE
Project description:Substantial progress has been made globally to control malaria, however there is a growing need for innovative new tools to ensure continued progress. One approach is to harness genetic sequencing and accompanying methodological approaches as have been used in the control of other infectious diseases. However, to utilize these methodologies for malaria, we first need to extend the methods to capture the complex interactions between parasites, human and vector hosts, and environment, which all impact the level of genetic diversity and relatedness of malaria parasites. We develop an individual-based transmission model to simulate malaria parasite genetics parameterized using estimated relationships between complexity of infection and age from five regions in Uganda and Kenya. We predict that cotransmission and superinfection contribute equally to within-host parasite genetic diversity at 11.5% PCR prevalence, above which superinfections dominate. Finally, we characterize the predictive power of six metrics of parasite genetics for detecting changes in transmission intensity, before grouping them in an ensemble statistical model. The model predicted malaria prevalence with a mean absolute error of 0.055. Different assumptions about the availability of sample metadata were considered, with the most accurate predictions of malaria prevalence made when the clinical status and age of sampled individuals is known. Parasite genetics may provide a novel surveillance tool for estimating the prevalence of malaria in areas in which prevalence surveys are not feasible. However, the findings presented here reinforce the need for patient metadata to be recorded and made available within all future attempts to use parasite genetics for surveillance.
| S-EPMC7783189 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND: The precise nature of the relationship between malaria mortality and levels of transmission is unclear. Due to methodological limitations, earlier efforts to assess the linkage have lead to inconclusive results. The malaria transmission intensity and mortality burden across Africa (MTIMBA) project initiated by the INDEPTH Network collected longitudinally entomological data within a number of sites in sub-Saharan Africa to study this relationship. This work linked the MTIMBA entomology database with the routinely collected vital events within the Rufiji Demographic Surveillance System to analyse the transmission-mortality relation in the region. METHODS: Bayesian Bernoulli spatio-temporal Cox proportional hazards models with village clustering, adjusted for age and insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), were fitted to assess the relation between mortality and malaria transmission measured by entomology inoculation rate (EIR). EIR was predicted at household locations using transmission models and it was incorporated in the model as a covariate with measure of uncertainty. Effects of covariates estimated by the model are reported as hazard ratios (HR) with 95% Bayesian confidence interval (BCI) and spatial and temporal parameters are presented. RESULTS: Separate analysis was carried out for neonates, infants and children 1-4 years of age. No significant relation between all-cause mortality and intensity of malaria transmission was indicated at any age in childhood. However, a strong age effect was shown. Comparing effects of ITN and EIR on mortality at different age categories, a decrease in protective efficacy of ITN was observed (i.e. neonates: HR = 0.65; 95% BCI:0.39-1.05; infants: HR = 0.72; 95% BCI:0.48-1.07; children 1-4 years: HR = 0.88; 95% BCI:0.62-1.23) and reduction on the effect of malaria transmission exposure was detected (i.e. neonates: HR = 1.15; 95% BCI:0.95-1.36; infants: HR = 1.13; 95% BCI:0.98-1.25; children 1-4 years: HR = 1.04; 95% BCI:0.89-1.18). A very strong spatial correlation was also observed. CONCLUSION: These results imply that assessing the malaria transmission-mortality relation involves more than the knowledge on the performance of interventions and control measures. This relation depends on the levels of malaria endemicity and transmission intensity, which varies significantly between different settings. Thus, sub-regions analyses are necessary to validate and assess reproducibility of findings.
| S-EPMC4021084 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundIn individuals living in malaria-endemic regions, parasitaemia thresholds for the onset of clinical symptoms vary with transmission intensity. The mechanisms that mediate this relationship are however, unclear. Since inflammatory responses to parasite infection contribute to the clinical manifestation of malaria, this study investigated inflammatory cytokine responses in children with malaria from areas of different transmission intensities (ranging from low to high).MethodsBlood samples were obtained from children confirmed with malaria at community hospitals in three areas with differing transmission intensities. Cytokine levels were assessed using the Luminex®-based magnetic bead array system, and levels were compared across sites using appropriate statistical tests. The relative contributions of age, gender, parasitaemia and transmission intensity on cytokine levels were investigated using multivariate regression analysis.ResultsParasite density increased with increasing transmission intensity in children presenting to hospital with symptomatic malaria, indicating that the parasitaemia threshold for clinical malaria increases with increasing transmission intensity. Furthermore, levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines, including tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), interferon-gamma (IFN-γ), interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-2, IL-6, IL-8, and IL-12, decreased with increasing transmission intensity, and correlated significantly with parasitaemia levels in the low transmission area but not in high transmission areas. Similarly, levels of anti-inflammatory cytokines, including IL-4, IL-7, IL-10 and IL-13, decreased with increasing transmission intensity, with IL-10 showing strong correlation with parasitaemia levels in the low transmission area. Multiple linear regression analyses revealed that transmission intensity was a stronger predictor of cytokine levels than age, gender and parasitaemia.ConclusionTaken together, the data demonstrate a strong relationship between the prevailing transmission intensity, parasitaemia levels and the magnitude of inflammatory responses induced during clinical malaria.
| S-EPMC5387356 | biostudies-literature
Project description:From 2003 through 2009, 687 of 2885 patients (23.8%) treated for Plasmodium falciparum malaria in clinical studies in Myanmar or on the Thailand-Myanmar border had recurrent Plasmodium vivax malaria within 63 days, compared with 18 of 429 patients (4.2%) from 2010 onward (risk ratio [RR], 0.176; 95% confidence interval, .112-.278; P < .0001). Corresponding data from 42 days of follow-up revealed that 820 of 3883 patients (21.1%) had recurrent P. vivax malaria before 2010, compared with 22 of 886 (2.5%) from 2010 onward (RR, 0.117; 95% CI, .077-.177; P < .0001). This 6-fold reduction suggests a recent decline in P. vivax transmission intensity and, thus, a substantial reduction in the proportion of individuals harboring hypnozoites.
| S-EPMC6548896 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Serology has become an increasingly important tool for the surveillance of a wide range of infectious diseases. It has been particularly useful to monitor malaria transmission in elimination settings where existing metrics such as parasite prevalence and incidence of clinical cases are less sensitive. Seroconversion rates, based on antibody prevalence to Plasmodium falciparum asexual blood-stage antigens, provide estimates of transmission intensity that correlate with entomological inoculation rates but lack precision in settings where seroprevalence is still high. Here we present a new and widely applicable method, based on cross-sectional data on individual antibody levels. We evaluate its use as a sero-surveillance tool in a Tanzanian setting with declining malaria prevalence. We find that the newly developed mathematical models produce more precise estimates of transmission patterns, are robust in high transmission settings and when sample sizes are small, and provide a powerful tool for serological evaluation of malaria transmission intensity.
| S-EPMC4984902 | biostudies-other