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Regularized estimation for the accelerated failure time model.

ABSTRACT: In the presence of high-dimensional predictors, it is challenging to develop reliable regression models that can be used to accurately predict future outcomes. Further complications arise when the outcome of interest is an event time, which is often not fully observed due to censoring. In this article, we develop robust prediction models for event time outcomes by regularizing the Gehan's estimator for the accelerated failure time (AFT) model (Tsiatis, 1996, Annals of Statistics 18, 305-328) with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalty. Unlike existing methods based on the inverse probability weighting and the Buckley and James estimator (Buckley and James, 1979, Biometrika 66, 429-436), the proposed approach does not require additional assumptions about the censoring and always yields a solution that is convergent. Furthermore, the proposed estimator leads to a stable regression model for prediction even if the AFT model fails to hold. To facilitate the adaptive selection of the tuning parameter, we detail an efficient numerical algorithm for obtaining the entire regularization path. The proposed procedures are applied to a breast cancer dataset to derive a reliable regression model for predicting patient survival based on a set of clinical prognostic factors and gene signatures. Finite sample performances of the procedures are evaluated through a simulation study.

SUBMITTER: Cai T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3073158 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Regularized estimation for the accelerated failure time model.

Cai T T Huang J J Tian L L

Biometrics 20090601 2

<h4>Summary</h4>In the presence of high-dimensional predictors, it is challenging to develop reliable regression models that can be used to accurately predict future outcomes. Further complications arise when the outcome of interest is an event time, which is often not fully observed due to censoring. In this article, we develop robust prediction models for event time outcomes by regularizing the Gehan's estimator for the accelerated failure time (AFT) model (Tsiatis, 1996, Annals of Statistics ...[more]

PMID: 18573133

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Project description:BackgroundSurvival analysis is the most appropriate method of analysis for time-to-event data. The classical accelerated failure-time model is a more powerful and interpretable model than the Cox proportional hazards model, provided that model imposed distribution and homoscedasticity assumptions satisfied. However, most of the real data are heteroscedastic which violates the fundamental assumption and consequently, the statistical inference could be erroneous in accelerated failure-time modeling. The weighted least-squares estimation for the accelerated failure-time model is an efficient semi-parametric approach for time-to-event data without the homoscedasticity assumption, which is developed recently and not often utilized for real data analysis. Thus, this study was conducted to ascertain the better performance of the weighted least-squares estimation method over the classical methods.MethodsWe analyzed a REAL dataset on Antiretroviral Therapy patients we recently collected. We compared the results from classical methods of estimation for the accelerated failure-time model with the results revealed from the weighted least-squares estimation.ResultsWe found that the data are heteroscedastic and indicated that the weighted least-square method should be used to analyze this data. The weighted least-squares estimation revealed more accurate, and efficient estimates of covariates effect since its confidence intervals were shorter and it identified more significant covariates. Accordingly, the survival of HIV positives was found to be significantly linked with age, weight, functional status, CD4 (Cluster of Differentiation agent 4 glycoproteins), and clinical stages.ConclusionsThe weighted least-squares estimation performed the best in providing more significant effects and precise estimates than the classical accelerated failure-time methods of estimation if data are heteroscedastic. Thus, we recommend future researchers should utilize weighted least-squares estimation rather than the classical methods when the homoscedasticity assumption is violated.

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Regularized estimation for the accelerated failure time model.

Publications

Regularized estimation for the accelerated failure time model.

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