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Robust estimation and variable selection for the accelerated failure time model.

ABSTRACT: This article concerns robust modeling of the survival time for cancer patients. Accurate prediction of patient survival time is crucial to the development of effective therapeutic strategies. To this goal, we propose a unified Expectation-Maximization approach combined with the L₁ -norm penalty to perform variable selection and parameter estimation simultaneously in the accelerated failure time model with right-censored survival data of moderate sizes. Our approach accommodates general loss functions, and reduces to the well-known Buckley-James method when the squared-error loss is used without regularization. To mitigate the effects of outliers and heavy-tailed noise in real applications, we recommend the use of robust loss functions under the general framework. Furthermore, our approach can be extended to incorporate group structure among covariates. We conduct extensive simulation studies to assess the performance of the proposed methods with different loss functions and apply them to an ovarian carcinoma study as an illustration.

SUBMITTER: Li Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8364878 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Robust estimation and variable selection for the accelerated failure time model.

Li Yi Y Liang Muxuan M Mao Lu L Wang Sijian S

Statistics in medicine 20210524 20

This article concerns robust modeling of the survival time for cancer patients. Accurate prediction of patient survival time is crucial to the development of effective therapeutic strategies. To this goal, we propose a unified Expectation-Maximization approach combined with the L<sub>1</sub> -norm penalty to perform variable selection and parameter estimation simultaneously in the accelerated failure time model with right-censored survival data of moderate sizes. Our approach accommodates genera ...[more]

PMID: 34031919

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Project description:BackgroundSurvival analysis is the most appropriate method of analysis for time-to-event data. The classical accelerated failure-time model is a more powerful and interpretable model than the Cox proportional hazards model, provided that model imposed distribution and homoscedasticity assumptions satisfied. However, most of the real data are heteroscedastic which violates the fundamental assumption and consequently, the statistical inference could be erroneous in accelerated failure-time modeling. The weighted least-squares estimation for the accelerated failure-time model is an efficient semi-parametric approach for time-to-event data without the homoscedasticity assumption, which is developed recently and not often utilized for real data analysis. Thus, this study was conducted to ascertain the better performance of the weighted least-squares estimation method over the classical methods.MethodsWe analyzed a REAL dataset on Antiretroviral Therapy patients we recently collected. We compared the results from classical methods of estimation for the accelerated failure-time model with the results revealed from the weighted least-squares estimation.ResultsWe found that the data are heteroscedastic and indicated that the weighted least-square method should be used to analyze this data. The weighted least-squares estimation revealed more accurate, and efficient estimates of covariates effect since its confidence intervals were shorter and it identified more significant covariates. Accordingly, the survival of HIV positives was found to be significantly linked with age, weight, functional status, CD4 (Cluster of Differentiation agent 4 glycoproteins), and clinical stages.ConclusionsThe weighted least-squares estimation performed the best in providing more significant effects and precise estimates than the classical accelerated failure-time methods of estimation if data are heteroscedastic. Thus, we recommend future researchers should utilize weighted least-squares estimation rather than the classical methods when the homoscedasticity assumption is violated.

Dataset Information

Robust estimation and variable selection for the accelerated failure time model.

Publications

Robust estimation and variable selection for the accelerated failure time model.

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