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An agent-based model to study the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of Influenza viruses.

ABSTRACT: Influenza A viruses exhibit complex epidemiological patterns in a number of mammalian and avian hosts. Understanding transmission of these viruses necessitates taking into account their evolution, which represents a challenge for developing mathematical models. This is because the phrasing of multi-strain systems in terms of traditional compartmental ODE models either requires simplifying assumptions to be made that overlook important evolutionary processes, or leads to complex dynamical systems that are too cumbersome to analyse.Here, we develop an Individual-Based Model (IBM) in order to address simultaneously the ecology, epidemiology and evolution of strain-polymorphic pathogens, using Influenza A viruses as an illustrative example.We carry out careful validation of our IBM against comparable mathematical models to demonstrate the robustness of our algorithm and the sound basis for this novel framework. We discuss how this new approach can give critical insights in the study of influenza evolution.

SUBMITTER: Roche B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3078862 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An agent-based model to study the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of Influenza viruses.

Roche Benjamin B Drake John M JM Rohani Pejman P

BMC bioinformatics 20110330

<h4>Background</h4>Influenza A viruses exhibit complex epidemiological patterns in a number of mammalian and avian hosts. Understanding transmission of these viruses necessitates taking into account their evolution, which represents a challenge for developing mathematical models. This is because the phrasing of multi-strain systems in terms of traditional compartmental ODE models either requires simplifying assumptions to be made that overlook important evolutionary processes, or leads to comple ...[more]

PMID: 21450071

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Project description:Epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza B Victoria and Yamagata lineages remained poorly understood in the tropical Southeast Asia region, despite causing seasonal outbreaks worldwide. From 2012-2014, nasopharyngeal swab samples collected from outpatients experiencing acute upper respiratory tract infection symptoms in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, were screened for influenza viruses using a multiplex RT-PCR assay. Among 2,010/3,935 (51.1%) patients infected with at least one respiratory virus, 287 (14.3%) and 183 (9.1%) samples were tested positive for influenza A and B viruses, respectively. Influenza-positive cases correlate significantly with meteorological factors-total amount of rainfall, relative humidity, number of rain days, ground temperature and particulate matter (PM10). Phylogenetic reconstruction of haemagglutinin (HA) gene from 168 influenza B viruses grouped them into Yamagata Clade 3 (65, 38.7%), Yamagata Clade 2 (48, 28.6%) and Victoria Clade 1 (55, 32.7%). With neuraminidase (NA) phylogeny, 30 intra-clade (29 within Yamagata Clade 3, 1 within Victoria Clade 1) and 1 inter-clade (Yamagata Clade 2-HA/Yamagata Clade 3-NA) reassortants were identified. Study of virus temporal dynamics revealed a lineage shift from Victoria to Yamagata (2012-2013), and a clade shift from Yamagata Clade 2 to Clade 3 (2013-2014). Yamagata Clade 3 predominating in 2014 consisted of intra-clade reassortants that were closely related to a recent WHO vaccine candidate strain (B/Phuket/3073/2013), with the reassortment event occurred approximately 2 years ago based on Bayesian molecular clock estimation. Malaysian Victoria Clade 1 viruses carried H274Y substitution in the active site of neuraminidase, which confers resistance to oseltamivir. Statistical analyses on clinical and demographic data showed Yamagata-infected patients were older and more likely to experience headache while Victoria-infected patients were more likely to experience nasal congestion and sore throat. This study describes the evolution of influenza B viruses in Malaysia and highlights the importance of continuous surveillance for better vaccination policy in this region.

Project description:From 2013 onwards, the spread of novel H5N6 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses in China has posed great threats to not only poultry industry but also human health. Since late-2016 in particular, frequent outbreaks of clade 2.3.4.4 H5N6 HPAI viruses among wild birds have promoted viral dissemination in South Korea, Japan, and European countries. In response to those trends, we conducted molecular genetic analysis of global clade 2.3.4.4 H5N6 viruses in order to characterize spatio-temporal patterns of viral diffusion and genetic diversity among wild birds and poultry. The clade 2.3.4.4 H5N6 viruses were classified into three groups (Group B, C, and D). During the cocirculation of Group C/D H5N6 viruses from 2013 to 2017, viral movements occurred between close or adjacent regions of China, Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan. In addition, viral migration rates from Guangdong and Hunan to multiple adjacent provinces seemed to have been highly supported by transmission routes (Bayes factors >100), suggesting that southern China was an epicenter for the spread of H5N6 viruses in poultry during that period. Since the introduction of H5N6 viruses originating in wild birds in late-2016, evolving H5N6 viruses have lost most previous genotypes (e.g. G1, G2, and G1.2), whereas some prevailing genotypes (e.g. G1.1, G1.1.b, and G3) in aquatic birds have been dominated, and in particular, the effective population size of H5N6 originating in wild birds dramatically increased; however, the population size of poultry-origin H5N6 viruses declined during the same period, indicating that wild bird migration might accelerate the genetic diversity of H5N6 viruses. Phylogeographic approaches revealed that two independent paths of H5N6 viruses into South Korea and Japan from 2016 to 2018 and provided evidence of Group B and Group C H5N6 viruses were originated from Europe and China, respectively, as regions located in the East Asia-Australian migration flyway, which accelerated the genetic variability and dissemination. Altogether, our study provides insights to examine time of origin, evolutionary rate, diversification patterns, and phylogeographical approach of global clade 2.3.4.4 H5N6 HPAI viruses for assessing their evolutionary process and dissemination pathways.

Dataset Information

An agent-based model to study the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of Influenza viruses.

Publications

An agent-based model to study the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of Influenza viruses.

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