Dataset Information

A Bayesian model averaging approach for estimating the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves in 105 U.S. cities.

ABSTRACT: Estimating the risks heat waves pose to human health is a critical part of assessing the future impact of climate change. In this article, we propose a flexible class of time series models to estimate the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves and conduct Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to account for the multiplicity of potential models. Applying these methods to data from 105 U.S. cities for the period 1987-2005, we identify those cities having a high posterior probability of increased mortality risk during heat waves, examine the heterogeneity of the posterior distributions of mortality risk across cities, assess sensitivity of the results to the selection of prior distributions, and compare our BMA results to a model selection approach. Our results show that no single model best predicts risk across the majority of cities, and that for some cities heat-wave risk estimation is sensitive to model choice. Although model averaging leads to posterior distributions with increased variance as compared to statistical inference conditional on a model obtained through model selection, we find that the posterior mean of heat wave mortality risk is robust to accounting for model uncertainty over a broad class of models.

SUBMITTER: Bobb JF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3128186 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Bayesian model averaging approach for estimating the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves in 105 U.S. cities.

Bobb Jennifer F JF Dominici Francesca F Peng Roger D RD

Biometrics 20110329 4

Estimating the risks heat waves pose to human health is a critical part of assessing the future impact of climate change. In this article, we propose a flexible class of time series models to estimate the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves and conduct Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to account for the multiplicity of potential models. Applying these methods to data from 105 U.S. cities for the period 1987-2005, we identify those cities having a high posterior probability of inc ...[more]

PMID: 21447046

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Project description:Abstract At present, understanding the synergies between the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) phenomenon and extreme climatic events entailing high mortality, i.e., heat waves, is a great challenge that must be faced to improve the quality of life in urban zones. The implementation of new mitigation and resilience measures in cities would serve to lessen the effects of heat waves and the economic cost they entail. In this research, the Land Surface Temperature (LST) and the SUHI were determined through Sentinel-3A and 3B images of the eight capitals of Andalusia (southern Spain) during the months of July and August of years 2019 and 2020. The objective was to determine possible synergies or interaction between the LST and SUHI, as well as between SUHI and heat waves, in a region classified as highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. For each Andalusian city, the atmospheric variables of ambient temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and direction were obtained from stations of the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET); the data were quantified and classified both in periods of normal environmental conditions and during heat waves. By means of Data Panel statistical analysis, the multivariate relationships were derived, determining which ones statistically influence the SUHI during heat wave periods. The results indicate that the LST and the mean SUHI obtained are statistically interacted and intensify under heat wave conditions. The greatest increases in daytime temperatures were seen for Sentinel-3A in cities by the coast (LST = 3.90 °C, SUHI = 1.44 °C) and for Sentinel-3B in cities located inland (LST = 2.85 °C, SUHI = 0.52 °C). The existence of statistically significant positive relationships above 99% (p < 0.000) between the SUHI and solar radiation, and between the SUHI and the direction of the wind, intensified in periods of heat wave, could be verified. An increase in the urban area affected by the SUHI under heat wave conditions is reported. Graphical Abstract Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41748-021-00268-9.

Dataset Information

A Bayesian model averaging approach for estimating the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves in 105 U.S. cities.

Publications

A Bayesian model averaging approach for estimating the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves in 105 U.S. cities.

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