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Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities.

ABSTRACT: Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with ~3°C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There is a clear need to strengthen mitigation ambition to stabilize the climate at the Paris Agreement goal of warming of less than 2°C. We specify the differences in city-level heat-related mortality between the 3°C trajectory and warming of 2° and 1.5°C. Focusing on 15 U.S. cities where reliable climate and health data are available, we show that ratcheting up mitigation ambition to achieve the 2°C threshold could avoid between 70 and 1980 annual heat-related deaths per city during extreme events (30-year return period). Achieving the 1.5°C threshold could avoid between 110 and 2720 annual heat-related deaths. Population changes and adaptation investments would alter these numbers. Our results provide compelling evidence for the heat-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C in the United States.

SUBMITTER: Lo YTE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6551192 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Contrasting suitability and ambition in regional carbon mitigation.

Project description:Substantially enhancing carbon mitigation ambition is a crucial step towards achieving the Paris climate goal. Yet this attempt is hampered by poor knowledge on the potential cost and benefit of emission mitigation for each emitter. Here we use a global economic model to assess the mitigation costs for 27 major emitting countries and regions, and further contrast the costs against the potential benefits of mitigation valued as avoided social cost of carbon and the mitigation ambition of each region. We find a strong negative spatial correlation between cost and benefit of mitigating each ton of carbon dioxide. Meanwhile, the relative suitability of carbon mitigation, defined as the ratio of normalized benefit to normalized cost, also shows a considerable geographical mismatch with the mitigation ambition of emitters indicated in their first submitted nationally determined contributions. Our work provides important information to improve concerted climate action and formulate more efficient carbon mitigation strategies.

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