Dataset Information

Incidence of breast cancer in the United States: current and future trends.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The incidence of breast cancer increased in the United States until circa 2000 then decreased, mostly among women with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive cancers. Time trends provide important clues for cancer etiology and prevention; however, the observed trends of ER-positive and ER-negative breast cancers can be biased by missing ER data.

Methods

We developed a simple imputation method to correct invasive female breast cancer incidence for missing or unknown ER expression, using nationally representative data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program during 1980-2008, including 588,720 invasive female breast cancer patients with 471,336,233 woman-years of follow-up. Corrected rates of ER-positive and ER-negative breast cancers were used to calculate age-standardized incidence rates, estimated annual percentage changes, and projections derived from age-period-cohort models.

Results

The recent decrease in the incidence of breast cancer overall stabilized near 200 per 100,000 woman-years by 2007-2008, reflecting a transient decrease in ER-positive cancers and a steady decrease in ER-negative cancers. The projected incidence rate for breast cancer overall through the year 2016 was similar to the incidence rate during 2007-2008. In contrast, rates of ER-positive breast cancers were projected to increase 5.3% (95% confidence interval = 5.2% to 5.4%), whereas rates of ER-negative breast cancers were projected to decrease 11.4% (95% confidence interval = 11.3% to 11.6%) during 2009-2016.

Conclusion

Recent changes in breast cancer incidence overall reflect the superimposition of divergent trends in ER-positive and ER-negative cancers. If current trends continue, the incidence of ER-positive breast cancers will increase, the incidence of ER-negative breast cancers will continue to decrease, and the incidence of breast cancer overall will remain similar to its current level.

SUBMITTER: Anderson WF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3176776 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Incidence of breast cancer in the United States: current and future trends.

Anderson William F WF Katki Hormuzd A HA Rosenberg Philip S PS

Journal of the National Cancer Institute 20110713 18

<h4>Background</h4>The incidence of breast cancer increased in the United States until circa 2000 then decreased, mostly among women with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive cancers. Time trends provide important clues for cancer etiology and prevention; however, the observed trends of ER-positive and ER-negative breast cancers can be biased by missing ER data.<h4>Methods</h4>We developed a simple imputation method to correct invasive female breast cancer incidence for missing or unknown ER expressi ...[more]

PMID: 21753181

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Metastatic prostate cancer (PCA) remains a highly lethal malignancy in the USA. As prostate-specific antigen testing declines nationally, detailed assessment of current age- and race-specific incidence trends and quantitative forecasts are needed. OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the current trends of metastatic PCA by age and race, and forecast the number of new cases (annual burden) and future trends. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS:We derived incidence data for men aged ?45 yr who were diagnosed with metastatic PCA from the population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:We examined the current trends of metastatic PCA from 2004 to 2014, and forecast the annual burden and incidence rates by age and race for 2015-2025, using age-period-cohort models and population projections. We also examined alternative forecasts (2012-2025) using trends prior to the revised screening guidelines issued in 2012. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS:Metastatic PCA, steadily declining from 2004 to 2007 by 1.45%/yr, began to increase by 0.58%/yr after 2008, which accelerated to 2.74%/yr following the 2012 United States Preventive Services Task Force recommendations-a pattern that was magnified among men aged ?69 yr and white men. Forecasts project the incidence to increase by 1.03%/yr through 2025, with men aged 45-54 yr (2.29%/yr) and 55-69 yr (1.53%/yr) increasing more rapidly. Meanwhile, the annual burden is expected to increase 42% by 2025. Our forecasts estimated an additional 15 891 metastatic cases from 2015 to 2025 compared with alternative forecasts using trends prior to 2012. CONCLUSIONS:The recent uptick in metastatic PCA rates has resulted in forecasts that project increasing rates through 2025, particularly among men aged ?69 yr. Moreover, racial disparities are expected to persist and the annual burden will increase considerably. The impact of the prior and current PCA screening recommendations on metastatic PCA rates requires continued examination. PATIENT SUMMARY:In this report, we assessed how the incidence of metastatic prostate cancer has changed over recent years, and forecast future incidence trends and the number of new cases expected each year. We found that the incidence of metastatic prostate cancer has been increasing more rapidly since 2012, resulting in a rise in both future incidence and the number of new cases by 2025. Future incidence rates and the number of new cases were reduced in alternative forecasts using data prior to the 2012 United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendations against prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing for prostate cancer. There is a need for additional research that examines whether national declines in PSA testing contributed to increases in rates of metastatic disease. The incidence of metastatic disease in black men is still expected to occur at considerably higher rates compared with that in white men.

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Dataset Information

Incidence of breast cancer in the United States: current and future trends.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Incidence of breast cancer in the United States: current and future trends.

Similar Datasets

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