Incidence of Benign Meningiomas in the United States: Current and Future Trends.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Benign meningiomas are the most frequently reported central nervous system tumors in the United States, with increasing incidence in past decades. However, the future trajectory of this neoplasm remains unclear.Methods
We analyzed benign meningioma incidence of cases identified by any means (eg, radiographically with or without microscopic confirmation) in US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registries among groups aged 35 to 84 years during 2004-2017 by sex and race and ethnicity using age-period-cohort models. We employed age-period-cohort forecasting models to glean insights regarding the etiology, distribution, and anticipated future (2018-2027) public health impact of this neoplasm.Results
In all groups, meningioma incidence overall increased through 2010, then stabilized. Temporal declines were statistically significant overall and in most groups. JoinPoint analysis of cohort rate-ratios identified substantial acceleration in White men born after 1963 (from 1.1% to 3.2% per birth year); cohort rate-ratios were stable or increasing in all groups and all birth cohorts. We forecast that meningioma incidence through 2027 will remain stable or decrease among groups aged 55-84 years but remain similar to current levels among groups aged 35-54 years. The case count of total meningioma burden in 2027 is expected to be approximately 30 470, similar to the expected case count of 27 830 in 2018.Conclusions
Between 2004 and 2017, overall incidence of benign meningioma increased and then stabilized or declined. For 2018-2027, our forecast is incidence will remain generally stable in younger age groups but decrease in older age groups. Nonetheless, the total future burden will remain similar to current levels because the population is aging.
SUBMITTER: Bhala S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8160529 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:PurposeHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence rates have been increasing in the United States for the past 35 years. Because HCC has a poor prognosis, quantitative forecasts could help to inform prevention and treatment strategies to reduce the incidence and burden of HCC.MethodsSingle-year HCC incident case and population data for the years 2000 to 2012 and ages 35 to 84 years were obtained from the SEER 18 Registry Database. We forecast incident HCC cases through 2030, using novel age-period-cohort models and stratifying by sex, race/ethnicity, and age. Rates are presented because absolute numbers may be influenced by population increases.ResultsRates of HCC increased with each successive birth cohort through 1959. However, rates began to decrease with the 1960 to 1969 birth cohorts. Asians/Pacific Islanders (APIs) have had the highest HCC rates in the United States for many years, but the rates have stabilized and begun to decline in recent years. Between 2013 and 2030, rates among APIs are forecast to decline further, with estimated annual percentage changes of -1.59% among men and -2.20% among women. Thus, by 2030, Asians are forecast to have the lowest incidence rates among men, and Hispanics are forecast to have the highest rates among men (age-standardized rate, 44.2). Blacks are forecast to have the highest rate among women (age-standardized rate, 12.82).ConclusionAlthough liver cancer has long had some of the most rapidly increasing incidence rates, the decreasing rates seen among APIs, individuals younger than 65 years, and cohorts born after 1960 suggest that there will be declines in incidence of HCC in future years. Prevention efforts should be focused on individuals in the 1950 to 1959 birth cohorts, Hispanics, and blacks.
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| S-EPMC11372180 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNational cancer incidence trends are presented for eight Asian American groups: Asian Indians/Pakistanis, Chinese, Filipinos, Japanese, Kampucheans, Koreans, Laotians, and Vietnamese.MethodsCancer incidence data from 1990 through 2008 were obtained from 13 Surveillance, Epidemiology, End Results (SEER) registries. Incidence rates from 1990 through 2008 and average percentage change were computed using SEER*Stat and Joinpoint software. The annual percentage change (APC) in incidence rates was estimated with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) calculated for both the rate and APC estimates. Rates for non-Hispanic whites are presented for comparison.ResultsProstate cancer was the most common malignancy among most groups, followed by lung, colorectal, liver, and stomach cancers. Breast cancer was generally the most common cancer in women, followed by colorectal and lung cancers; liver, cervix, thyroid, and stomach cancers also ranked highly. Among men, increasing trends were observed for prostate (Asian Indians and Pakistanis: APC 1990-2003 = 2.2, 95% CI = 0.3 to 4.1; Filipinos: APC 1990-1994 = 19.0, 95% CI = 4.5 to 35.4; Koreans: APC 1990-2008 = 2.9, 95% CI = 1.8 to 4.0), colorectal (Koreans: APC 1990-2008 = 2.2, 95% CI = 0.9 to 3.5), and liver cancers (Filipinos: APC 1990-2008 = 1.6, 95% CI = 0.4 to 2.7; Koreans: APC 1990-2006 = 2.1, 95% CI = 0.4 to 3.7; Vietnamese: APC 1990-2008 = 1.6, 95% CI = 0.3 to 2.8), whereas lung and stomach cancers generally remained stable or decreased. Among women, increases were observed for uterine cancer (Asian Indians: APC 1990-2008 = 3.0, 95% CI = 0.3 to 5.8; Chinese: APC 2004-2008 = 7.0, 95% CI = 1.4 to 12.9; Filipina: APC 1990-2008 = 3.0, 95% CI = 2.4 to 3.7; Japanese: APC 1990-2008 = 1.1, 95% CI = 0.1 to 2.0), colorectal cancer (Koreans: APC 1990-2008 = 2.8, 95% CI = 1.7 to 3.9; Laotians: APC: 1990-2008 = 5.9, 95% CI = 4.0 to 7.7), lung cancer (Filipinas: APC 1990-2008 = 2.1, 95% CI = 1.4 to 2.8; Koreans: APC 1990-2008 = 2.1, 95% CI = 0.6 to 3.6), thyroid cancer (Filipinas: APC 1990-2008 = 2.5, 95% CI = 1.7 to 3.3), and breast cancer in most groups (APC 1990-2008 from 1.2 among Vietnamese and Chinese to 4.7 among Koreans). Decreases were observed for stomach (Chinese and Japanese), colorectal (Chinese), and cervical cancers (Laotians and Vietnamese).ConclusionsThese data fill a critical knowledge gap concerning the cancer experience of Asian American groups and highlight where increased preventive, screening, and surveillance efforts are needed-in particular, lung cancer among Filipina and Korean women and Asian Indian/Pakistani men, breast cancer among all women, and liver cancer among Vietnamese, Laotian, and Kampuchean women and Filipino, Kampuchean, and Vietnamese men.
| S-EPMC3735462 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceThyroid cancer incidence has increased substantially in the United States over the last 4 decades, driven largely by increases in papillary thyroid cancer. It is unclear whether the increasing incidence of papillary thyroid cancer has been related to thyroid cancer mortality trends.ObjectiveTo compare trends in thyroid cancer incidence and mortality by tumor characteristics at diagnosis.Design, setting, and participantsTrends in thyroid cancer incidence and incidence-based mortality rates were evaluated using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-9 (SEER-9) cancer registry program, and annual percent change in rates was calculated using log-linear regression.ExposureTumor characteristics.Main outcomes and measuresAnnual percent changes in age-adjusted thyroid cancer incidence and incidence-based mortality rates by histologic type and SEER stage for cases diagnosed during 1974-2013.ResultsAmong 77 276 patients (mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 48 [16] years; 58 213 [75%] women) diagnosed with thyroid cancer from 1974-2013, papillary thyroid cancer was the most common histologic type (64 625 cases), and 2371 deaths from thyroid cancer occurred during 1994-2013. Thyroid cancer incidence increased, on average, 3.6% per year (95% CI, 3.2%-3.9%) during 1974-2013 (from 4.56 per 100 000 person-years in 1974-1977 to 14.42 per 100 000 person-years in 2010-2013), primarily related to increases in papillary thyroid cancer (annual percent change, 4.4% [95% CI, 4.0%-4.7%]). Papillary thyroid cancer incidence increased for all SEER stages at diagnosis (4.6% per year for localized, 4.3% per year for regional, 2.4% per year for distant, 1.8% per year for unknown). During 1994-2013, incidence-based mortality increased 1.1% per year (95% CI, 0.6%-1.6%) (from 0.40 per 100 000 person-years in 1994-1997 to 0.46 per 100 000 person-years in 2010-2013) overall and 2.9% per year (95% CI, 1.1%-4.7%) for SEER distant stage papillary thyroid cancer.Conclusions and relevanceAmong patients in the United States diagnosed with thyroid cancer from 1974-2013, the overall incidence of thyroid cancer increased 3% annually, with increases in the incidence rate and thyroid cancer mortality rate for advanced-stage papillary thyroid cancer. These findings are consistent with a true increase in the occurrence of thyroid cancer in the United States.
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