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Bayesian modeling for genetic anticipation in presence of mutational heterogeneity: a case study in Lynch syndrome.

ABSTRACT: Genetic anticipation, described by earlier age of onset (AOO) and more aggressive symptoms in successive generations, is a phenomenon noted in certain hereditary diseases. Its extent may vary between families and/or between mutation subtypes known to be associated with the disease phenotype. In this article, we posit a Bayesian approach to infer genetic anticipation under flexible random effects models for censored data that capture the effect of successive generations on AOO. Primary interest lies in the random effects. Misspecifying the distribution of random effects may result in incorrect inferential conclusions. We compare the fit of four-candidate random effects distributions via Bayesian model fit diagnostics. A related statistical issue here is isolating the confounding effect of changes in secular trends, screening, and medical practices that may affect time to disease detection across birth cohorts. Using historic cancer registry data, we borrow from relative survival analysis methods to adjust for changes in age-specific incidence across birth cohorts. Our motivating case study comes from a Danish cancer register of 124 families with mutations in mismatch repair (MMR) genes known to cause hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer, also called Lynch syndrome (LS). We find evidence for a decrease in AOO between generations in this article. Our model predicts family-level anticipation effects that are potentially useful in genetic counseling clinics for high-risk families.

SUBMITTER: Boonstra PS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3176998 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Bayesian modeling for genetic anticipation in presence of mutational heterogeneity: a case study in Lynch syndrome.

Boonstra Philip S PS Mukherjee Bhramar B Taylor Jeremy M G JM Nilbert Mef M Moreno Victor V Gruber Stephen B SB

Biometrics 20110531 4

Genetic anticipation, described by earlier age of onset (AOO) and more aggressive symptoms in successive generations, is a phenomenon noted in certain hereditary diseases. Its extent may vary between families and/or between mutation subtypes known to be associated with the disease phenotype. In this article, we posit a Bayesian approach to infer genetic anticipation under flexible random effects models for censored data that capture the effect of successive generations on AOO. Primary interest l ...[more]

PMID: 21627626

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Project description:PurposeMicrosatellite instability (MSI) and/or mismatch repair deficiency (MMR-D) testing has traditionally been performed in patients with colorectal (CRC) and endometrial cancer (EC) to screen for Lynch syndrome (LS)-associated cancer predisposition. The recent success of immunotherapy in high-frequency MSI (MSI-H) and/or MMR-D tumors now supports testing for MSI in all advanced solid tumors. The extent to which LS accounts for MSI-H across heterogeneous tumor types is unknown. Here, we establish the prevalence of LS across solid tumors according to MSI status.MethodsMSI status was determined using targeted next-generation sequencing, with tumors classified as MSI-H, MSI-indeterminate, or microsatellite-stable. Matched germline DNA was analyzed for mutations in LS-associated mismatch repair genes ( MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, PMS2, EPCAM). In patients with LS with MSI-H/I tumors, immunohistochemical staining for MMR-D was assessed.ResultsAmong 15,045 unique patients (more than 50 cancer types), LS was identified in 16.3% (53 of 326), 1.9% (13 of 699), and 0.3% (37 of 14,020) of patients with MSI-H, MSI-indeterminate, and microsatellite-stable tumors, respectively ( P < .001). Among patients with LS with MSI-H/I tumors, 50% (33 of 66) had tumors other than CRC/EC, including urothelial, prostate, pancreas, adrenocortical, small bowel, sarcoma, mesothelioma, melanoma, gastric, and germ cell tumors. In these patients with non-CRC/EC tumors, 45% (15 of 33) did not meet LS genetic testing criteria on the basis of personal/family history. Immunohistochemical staining of LS-positive MSI-H/I tumors demonstrated MMR-D in 98.2% (56 of 57) of available cases.ConclusionMSI-H/MMR-D is predictive of LS across a much broader tumor spectrum than currently appreciated. Given implications for cancer surveillance and prevention measures in affected families, these data support germline genetic assessment for LS for patients with an MSI-H/MMR-D tumor, regardless of cancer type or family cancer history.

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Bayesian modeling for genetic anticipation in presence of mutational heterogeneity: a case study in Lynch syndrome.

Publications

Bayesian modeling for genetic anticipation in presence of mutational heterogeneity: a case study in Lynch syndrome.

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