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Modelling the spread of HIV immune escape mutants in a vaccinated population.

ABSTRACT: Because cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) have been shown to play a role in controlling human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and because CTL-based simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) vaccines have proved effective in non-human primates, one goal of HIV vaccine design is to elicit effective CTL responses in humans. Such a vaccine could improve viral control in patients who later become infected, thereby reducing onwards transmission and enhancing life expectancy in the absence of treatment. The ability of HIV to evolve mutations that evade CTLs and the ability of these 'escape mutants' to spread amongst the population poses a challenge to the development of an effective and robust vaccine. We present a mathematical model of within-host evolution and between-host transmission of CTL escape mutants amongst a population receiving a vaccine that elicits CTL responses to multiple epitopes. Within-host evolution at each epitope is represented by the outgrowth of escape mutants in hosts who restrict the epitope and their reversion in hosts who do not restrict the epitope. We use this model to investigate how the evolution and spread of escape mutants could affect the impact of a vaccine. We show that in the absence of escape, such a vaccine could markedly reduce the prevalence of both infection and disease in the population. However the impact of such a vaccine could be significantly abated by CTL escape mutants, especially if their selection in hosts who restrict the epitope is rapid and their reversion in hosts who do not restrict the epitope is slow. We also use the model to address whether a vaccine should span a broad or narrow range of CTL epitopes and target epitopes restricted by rare or common HLA types. We discuss the implications and limitations of our findings.

SUBMITTER: Fryer HR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3228780 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modelling the spread of HIV immune escape mutants in a vaccinated population.

Fryer Helen R HR McLean Angela R AR

PLoS computational biology 20111201 12

Because cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) have been shown to play a role in controlling human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and because CTL-based simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) vaccines have proved effective in non-human primates, one goal of HIV vaccine design is to elicit effective CTL responses in humans. Such a vaccine could improve viral control in patients who later become infected, thereby reducing onwards transmission and enhancing life expectancy in the absence of treatment. ...[more]

PMID: 22144883

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Project description:SummaryHoming endonuclease genes (HEGs) exist naturally in many single-celled organisms and can show extremely strong genetic drive allowing them to spread through populations into which they are introduced. They are being investigated as tools to manipulate the populations of important vectors of human disease, in particular the mosquitoes that transmit malaria. Before HEGs can be deployed, it is important to study their spatial spread in order to design efficient release strategies.A spatially explicit model is developed to study the spread of a HEG through a landscape whose structure is defined by the distribution of mosquito breeding and feeding sites. The model is motivated by the biology of the major vectors of malaria in Africa. The conditions for spread, fixation and loss of two major types of HEG are explored in different landscapes.In landscapes where mosquito resources are abundant, the conditions for spread are well approximated by a mean-field model. Where a HEG imposes a genetic load, it can cause population extinction, though spatial models more often predict population suppression.In certain types of landscapes where mosquito resources are rare, an introduced HEG may be prevented from moving between local mosquito populations and so a simple release strategy is unlikely to be effective, yet if the HEG succeeds in spreading population extinction is a feasible outcome. Increasing the number of release sites at the expense of releasing fewer mosquitoes per site reduces the probability that a HEG will fail.Synthesis and applications. The model presented asks for the first time how the spatial structure of mosquito populations will influence the effectiveness of a technology that is being rapidly developed for vector control. If homing endonuclease genes (HEGs) are to be used in this way, we have qualified the importance of accounting for landscape characteristics in both the execution and the expectation of their application. The next stage is to use the model to study the spread of HEGs through real landscapes where releases may take place, something that will be facilitated by the results of the present study.

Dataset Information

Modelling the spread of HIV immune escape mutants in a vaccinated population.

Publications

Modelling the spread of HIV immune escape mutants in a vaccinated population.

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