Dataset Information

Within-host stochastic emergence dynamics of immune-escape mutants.

ABSTRACT: Predicting the emergence of new pathogenic strains is a key goal of evolutionary epidemiology. However, the majority of existing studies have focussed on emergence at the population level, and not within a host. In particular, the coexistence of pre-existing and mutated strains triggers a heightened immune response due to the larger total pathogen population; this feedback can smother mutated strains before they reach an ample size and establish. Here, we extend previous work for measuring emergence probabilities in non-equilibrium populations, to within-host models of acute infections. We create a mathematical model to investigate the emergence probability of a fitter strain if it mutates from a self-limiting strain that is guaranteed to go extinct in the long-term. We show that ongoing immune cell proliferation during the initial stages of infection causes a drastic reduction in the probability of emergence of mutated strains; we further outline how this effect can be accurately measured. Further analysis of the model shows that, in the short-term, mutant strains that enlarge their replication rate due to evolving an increased growth rate are more favoured than strains that suffer a lower immune-mediated death rate ('immune tolerance'), as the latter does not completely evade ongoing immune proliferation due to inter-parasitic competition. We end by discussing the model in relation to within-host evolution of human pathogens (including HIV, hepatitis C virus, and cancer), and how ongoing immune growth can affect their evolutionary dynamics.

SUBMITTER: Hartfield M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4365036 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Within-host stochastic emergence dynamics of immune-escape mutants.

Hartfield Matthew M Alizon Samuel S

PLoS computational biology 20150318 3

Predicting the emergence of new pathogenic strains is a key goal of evolutionary epidemiology. However, the majority of existing studies have focussed on emergence at the population level, and not within a host. In particular, the coexistence of pre-existing and mutated strains triggers a heightened immune response due to the larger total pathogen population; this feedback can smother mutated strains before they reach an ample size and establish. Here, we extend previous work for measuring emerg ...[more]

PMID: 25785434

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Project description:Tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV) is a highly damaging begomovirus native to the Middle East. TYLCV has recently spread worldwide, recombining with other begomoviruses. Recent analysis of mixed infections between TYLCV and Tomato leaf curl Comoros begomovirus (ToLCKMV) has shown that, although natural selection preserves certain co-evolved intra-genomic interactions, numerous and diverse recombinants are produced at 120 days post-inoculation (dpi), and recombinant populations from different tomato plants are very divergent. Here, we investigate the population dynamics that lead to such patterns in tomato plants co-infected with TYLCV and ToLCKMV either by agro-inoculation or using the natural whitefly vector Bemisia tabaci. We monitored the frequency of parental and recombinant genotypes independently in 35 plants between 18 and 330 dpi and identified 177 recombinants isolated at different times. Recombinants were detected from 18 dpi and their frequency increased over time to reach about 50% at 150 dpi regardless of the inoculation method. The distribution of breakpoints detected on 96 fully sequenced recombinants was consistent with a continuous generation of new recombinants as well as random and deterministic effects in their maintenance. A severe population bottleneck of around 10 genomes was estimated during early systemic infection-a phenomenon that could account partially for the heterogeneity in recombinant patterns observed among plants. The detection of the same recombinant genome in six of the thirteen plants analysed beyond 30 dpi supported the influence of selection on observed recombination patterns. Moreover, a highly virulent recombinant genotype dominating virus populations within one plant has, apparently, the potential to be maintained in the natural population according to its infectivity, within-host accumulation, and transmission efficiency - all of which were similar or intermediate to those of the parent genotypes. Our results anticipate the outcomes of natural encounters between TYLCV and ToLCKMV.

Dataset Information

Within-host stochastic emergence dynamics of immune-escape mutants.

Publications

Within-host stochastic emergence dynamics of immune-escape mutants.

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