Dataset Information

Highly localized sensitivity to climate forcing drives endemic cholera in a megacity.

ABSTRACT: The population dynamics of endemic cholera in urban environments--in particular interannual variation in the size and distribution of seasonal outbreaks--remain poorly understood and highly unpredictable. In part, this situation is due to the considerable demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental heterogeneity of large and growing urban centers. Despite this heterogeneity, the influence of climate variability on the population dynamics of infectious diseases is considered a large-scale, regional, phenomenon, and as such has been previously addressed for cholera only with temporal models that do not incorporate spatial structure. Here we show that a probabilistic spatial model can explain cholera dynamics in the megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh, and afford a basis for cholera forecasts at lead times of 11 mo. Critically, we find that the action of climate variability (El Niño southern oscillation and flooding) is quite localized: There is a climate-sensitive urban core that acts to propagate risk to the rest of the city. The modeling framework presented here should be applicable to cholera in other cities, as well as to other infectious diseases in urban settings and other biological systems with spatiotemporal interactions.

SUBMITTER: Reiner RC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3277579 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Highly localized sensitivity to climate forcing drives endemic cholera in a megacity.

Reiner Robert C RC King Aaron A AA Emch Michael M Yunus Mohammad M Faruque A S G AS Pascual Mercedes M

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20120123 6

The population dynamics of endemic cholera in urban environments--in particular interannual variation in the size and distribution of seasonal outbreaks--remain poorly understood and highly unpredictable. In part, this situation is due to the considerable demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental heterogeneity of large and growing urban centers. Despite this heterogeneity, the influence of climate variability on the population dynamics of infectious diseases is considered a large-scale, regi ...[more]

PMID: 22308325

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundClimate heterogeneity not only indirectly shapes the genetic structures of plant populations, but also drives adaptive divergence by impacting demographic dynamics. The variable localized climates and topographic complexity of the Taihang Mountains make them a major natural boundary in Northern China that influences the divergence of organisms distributed across this region. Opisthopappus is an endemic genus of the Taihang Mountains that includes only two spatially partitioned species Opisthopappus longilobus and Opisthopappus taihangensis. For this study, the mechanisms behind the genetic variations in Opisthopappus populations were investigated.ResultsUsing SNP and InDel data coupled with geographic and climatic information, significant genetic differentiation was found to exist either between Opisthopappus populations or two species. All studied populations were divided into two genetic groups with the differentiation of haplotypes between the groups. At approximately 17.44 Ma of the early Miocene, O. taihangensis differentiated from O. longilobus under differing precipitation regimes due to the intensification of the Asian monsoon. Subsequently, intraspecific divergence might be induced by the dramatic climatic transformation from the mid- to late Miocene. During the Pleistocene period, the rapid uplift of the Taihang Mountains coupled with violent climatic oscillations would further promote the diversity of the two species. Following the development of the Taihang Mountains, its complex topography created geographical and ecological heterogeneity, which could lead to spatiotemporal isolation between the Opisthopappus populations. Thus the adaptive divergence might occur within these intraspecific populations in the localized heterogeneous environment of the Taihang Mountains.ConclusionsThe localized environmental events through the integration of small-scale spatial effects impacted the demographic history and differentiation mechanism of Opisthopappus species in the Taihang Mountains. The results provide useful information for us to understand the ecology and evolution of organisms in the mountainous environment from population and species perspective.

Dataset Information

Highly localized sensitivity to climate forcing drives endemic cholera in a megacity.

Publications

Highly localized sensitivity to climate forcing drives endemic cholera in a megacity.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets