All-cause mortality during first wave of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, New South Wales, Australia, 2009.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Muscatello DJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3294965 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:INTRODUCTION: There is conflicting data as to whether obesity is an independent risk factor for mortality in severe pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza (A(H1N1)pdm09). It is postulated that excess inflammation and cytokine production in obese patients following severe influenza infection leads to viral pneumonitis and/or acute respiratory distress syndrome. METHODS: Demographic, laboratory and clinical data prospectively collected from obese and non-obese patients admitted to nine adult Australian intensive care units (ICU) during the first A(H1N1)pdm09 wave, supplemented with retrospectively collected data, were compared. RESULTS: Of 173 patients, 100 (57.8%), 73 (42.2%) and 23 (13.3%) had body mass index (BMI) <30 kg/m(2), ≥30 kg/m(2) (obese) and ≥40 kg/m(2) (morbidly obese) respectively. Compared to non-obese patients, obese patients were younger (mean age 43.4 vs. 48.4 years, p = 0.035) and more likely to develop pneumonitis (61% vs. 44%, p = 0.029). Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use was greater in morbidly obese compared to non-obese patients (17.4% vs. 4.7%, p = 0.04). Higher mortality rates were observed in non-obese compared to obese patients, but not after adjusting for severity of disease. C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and hospital length of stay (LOS) were similar. Amongst ICU survivors, obese patients had longer ICU LOS (median 11.9 vs. 6.8 days, p = 0.017). Similar trends were observed when only patients infected with A(H1N1)pdm09 were examined. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients admitted to ICU during the first wave of A(H1N1)pdm09, obese and morbidly obese patients with severe infection were more likely to develop pneumonitis compared to non-obese patients, but mortality rates were not increased. CRP is not an accurate marker of pneumonitis.
| S-EPMC3572103 | biostudies-other
Project description:To identify oseltamivir resistance, we analyzed neuraminidase H275Y mutations in samples from 10 patients infected with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in South Korea who had influenza that was refractory to antiviral treatment with this drug. A neuraminidase I117M mutation that might influence oseltamivir susceptibility was detected in sequential specimens from 1 patient.
| S-EPMC3294558 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHospitalization and lab confirmed cases of H1N1 have been reported during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic but these are not accurate measures of influenza incidence in the population. We estimated the cumulative incidence of pandemic (H1N1) influenza among pregnant women in the province of Manitoba during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic.MethodsTwo panels of stored frozen serum specimens collected for routine prenatal screening were randomly selected for testing before (March 2009, n = 252) and after (August 2009, n = 296) the first wave of the pandemic. A standard hemagglutination inhibition assay was used to detect the presence of IgG antibodies against the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus. The cumulative incidence of pandemic (H1N1) influenza was calculated as the difference between the point prevalence rates in the first and second panels.ResultsOf the specimens collected in March, 7.1% were positive for the IgG antibodies (serum antibody titre ? 1:40). The corresponding prevalence was 15.7% among the specimens collected in August. The difference indicated a cumulative incidence of 8.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.2%-13.7%). The rate differed geographically, the highest being in the northern regions (20.8%, 95% CI 7.9%-31.8%), as compared with 4.0% (95% CI 0.0%-11.9%) in Winnipeg and 8.9% (95% CI 0.0%-18.8%) in the rest of the province.InterpretationWe estimated that the cumulative incidence of pandemic (H1N1) influenza among pregnant women in Manitoba during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic was 8.6%. It was 20.8% in the northern regions of the province.
| S-EPMC2950183 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn April 2009, a new pandemic strain of influenza infected thousands of persons in Mexico and the United States and spread rapidly worldwide. During the ensuing summer months, cases ebbed in the Northern Hemisphere while the Southern Hemisphere experienced a typical influenza season dominated by the novel strain. In the fall, a second wave of pandemic H1N1 swept through the United States, peaking in most parts of the country by mid October and returning to baseline levels by early December. The objective was to determine the seroprevalence of antibodies against the pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza strain by decade of birth among Pittsburgh-area residents.Methods and findingsAnonymous blood samples were obtained from clinical laboratories and categorized by decade of birth from 1920-2009. Using hemagglutination-inhibition assays, approximately 100 samples per decade (n= 846) were tested from blood samples drawn on hospital and clinic patients in mid-November and early December 2009. Age specific seroprevalences against pandemic H1N1 (A/California/7/2009) were measured and compared to seroprevalences against H1N1 strains that had previously circulated in the population in 2007, 1957, and 1918. (A/Brisbane/59/2007, A/Denver/1/1957, and A/South Carolina/1/1918). Stored serum samples from healthy, young adults from 2008 were used as a control group (n=100). Seroprevalences against pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza varied by age group, with children age 10-19 years having the highest seroprevalence (45%), and persons age 70-79 years having the lowest (5%). The baseline seroprevalence among control samples from 18-24 year-olds was 6%. Overall seroprevalence against pandemic H1N1 across all age groups was approximately 21%.ConclusionsAfter the peak of the second wave of 2009 H1N1, HAI seroprevalence results suggest that 21% of persons in the Pittsburgh area had become infected and developed immunity. Extrapolating to the entire US population, we estimate that at least 63 million persons became infected in 2009. As was observed among clinical cases, this sero-epidemiological study revealed highest infection rates among school-age children.
| S-EPMC2828126 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDuring the first wave of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Victoria, Australia the rapid increase in notified cases and the high proportion with relatively mild symptoms suggested that community transmission was established before cases were identified. This lead to the hypothesis that those with low-level infections were the main drivers of the pandemic.MethodsA deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered model was constructed to describe the first pandemic wave in a population structured by disease severity levels of asymptomatic, low-level symptoms, moderate symptoms and severe symptoms requiring hospitalisation. The model incorporated mixing, infectivity and duration of infectiousness parameters to calculate subgroup-specific reproduction numbers for each severity level.ResultsWith stratum-specific effective reproduction numbers of 1.82 and 1.32 respectively, those with low-level symptoms, and those with asymptomatic infections were responsible for most of the transmission. The effective reproduction numbers for infections resulting in moderate symptoms and hospitalisation were less than one. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the importance of parameters relating to asymptomatic individuals and those with low-level symptoms.ConclusionsTransmission of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was largely driven by those invisible to the health system. This has implications for control measures--such as distribution of antivirals to cases and contacts and quarantine/isolation--that rely on detection of infected cases. Pandemic plans need to incorporate milder scenarios, with a graded approach to implementation of control measures.
| S-EPMC4687009 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The impact of influenza pandemics might be overestimated; the published studies of years of life lost (YLL) have typically ignored the presence of underlying chronic conditions or health risk behaviors in most deaths. We used data on deaths involving laboratory-confirmed 2009 influenza A(H1N1) virus infection that occurred between April 2009 and May 2010 in Hong Kong, China, to adjust for these underlying risk factors. Life expectancy was corrected with hazard-based modifications to the life tables. The excess hazards posed by underlying risk factors were added to the "baseline" age-specific hazards in the local life tables to reflect the life expectancy associated with each underlying risk factor. Of 72 deceased persons with laboratory-confirmed 2009 influenza A(H1N1) virus infection, 56% had underlying risk factors. We estimated that the 2009 pandemic was associated with 1,540 (95% confidence interval: 1,350, 1,630) YLL after adjustment for age and underlying risk factors. This figure is approximately 25% lower than the YLL estimate of 2,080 derived after adjustment for age but not for risk factors. Our analysis demonstrates the potential scale of bias in YLL estimation if underlying risk factors are ignored. The estimation of YLL with correction for underlying risk factors in addition to age could also provide a framework for similar calculations elsewhere.
| S-EPMC3792731 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The first wave of the 2009 influenza H1N1 pandemic (H1N1pdm) in Milwaukee, WI has been recognized as the largest reported regional outbreak in the United States. The epidemiologic and clinical characteristics of this large first wave outbreak from April 28(th) 2009-July 25(th) 2009, studied using both passive and targeted surveillance methodologies are presented. A total of 2791 individuals with H1N1pdm infection were identified; 60 % were 5-18 years old. The 5-18 year and 0-4 year age groups had high infection (1131 and 1101 per 100,000) and hospitalization (49 and 12 per 100,000) rates respectively. Non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics had the highest hospitalization and infection rates. In targeted surveillance, infected patients had fever (78%), cough (80%), sore throat (38%), and vomiting or diarrhea (8%). The "influenza like illness" definition captured only 68 % of infected patients. Modeling estimates that 10.3 % of Milwaukee population was infected in the first wave and 59% were asymptomatic. The distinct epidemiologic profile of H1N1pdm infections observed in the study has direct implications for predicting the burden of infection and hospitalization in the next waves of H1N1pdm. Careful consideration of demographic predictors of infection and hospitalization with H1N1pdm will be important for effective preparedness for subsequent influenza seasons.
| S-EPMC2905828 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, the United Kingdom experienced two waves of infection, the first in the late spring and the second in the autumn. Given the low level of susceptibility to the pandemic virus expected to be remaining in the population after the second wave, it was a surprise that a substantial third epidemic occurred in the UK population between November 2010 and February 2011, despite no evidence for any significant antigenic evolution of the pandemic virus. Here, we use a mathematical model of influenza transmission embedded within a Bayesian synthesis inferential framework to jointly analyze syndromic, virological, and serological surveillance data collected in England in 2009-2011 and thereby assess epidemiological mechanisms which might have generated the third wave. We find that substantially increased transmissibility of the H1N1pdm09 virus is required to reproduce the third wave, suggesting that the virus evolved and increased fitness in the human host by the end of 2010, or that the very cold weather experienced in the United Kingdom at that time enhanced transmission rates. We also find some evidence that the preexisting heterologous immunity which reduced attack rates in adults during 2009 had substantially decayed by the winter of 2010, thus increasing the susceptibility of the adult population to infection. Finally, our analysis suggests that a pandemic vaccination campaign targeting adults and school-age children could have mitigated or prevented the third wave even at moderate levels of coverage.
| S-EPMC3746905 | biostudies-other
Project description:In April 2009, a new pandemic strain of influenza infected thousands of persons in Mexico and the United States and spread rapidly worldwide. During the ensuing summer months, cases ebbed in the Northern Hemisphere while the Southern Hemisphere experienced a typical influenza season dominated by the novel strain. In the fall, a second wave of pandemic H1N1 swept through the United States, peaking in most parts of the country by mid October and returning to baseline levels by early December. The objective was to determine the seroprevalence of antibodies against the pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza strain by decade of birth among Pittsburgh-area residents.Anonymous blood samples were obtained from clinical laboratories and categorized by decade of birth from 1920-2009. Using hemagglutination-inhibition assays, approximately 100 samples per decade (n = 846) were tested from blood samples drawn on hospital and clinic patients in mid-November and early December 2009. Age specific seroprevalences against pandemic H1N1 (A/California/7/2009) were measured and compared to seroprevalences against H1N1 strains that had previously circulated in the population in 2007, 1957, and 1918. (A/Brisbane/59/2007, A/Denver/1/1957, and A/South Carolina/1/1918). Stored serum samples from healthy, young adults from 2008 were used as a control group (n = 100). Seroprevalences against pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza varied by age group, with children age 10-19 years having the highest seroprevalence (45%), and persons age 70-79 years having the lowest (5%). The baseline seroprevalence among control samples from 18-24 year-olds was 6%. Overall seroprevalence against pandemic H1N1 across all age groups was approximately 21%.After the peak of the second wave of 2009 H1N1, HAI seroprevalence results suggest that 21% of persons in the Pittsburgh area had become infected and developed immunity. Extrapolating to the entire US population, we estimate that at least 63 million persons became infected in 2009. As was observed among clinical cases, this sero-epidemiological study revealed highest infection rates among school-age children.
| S-EPMC2904390 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We describe laboratory-confirmed influenza A pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in 17 hospitalized recipients of a hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) (8 allogeneic) and in 15 patients with malignancy treated at 6 Australian tertiary centers during winter 2009. Ten (31.3%) patients were admitted to intensive care, and 9 of them were HSCT recipients. All recipients of allogeneic HSCT with infection <100 days posttransplantation or severe graft-versus-host disease were admitted to an intensive care unit. In-hospital mortality rate was 21.9% (7/32). The H275Y neuraminidase mutation, which confers oseltamivir resistance developed in 4 of 7 patients with PCR positive for influenza after > or = 4 days of oseltamivir therapy. Three of these 4 patients were critically ill. Oseltamivir resistance in 4 (13.3%) of 30 patients who were administered oseltamivir highlights the need for ongoing surveillance of such resistance and further research on optimal antiviral therapy in the immunocompromised.
| S-EPMC3321901 | biostudies-literature